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South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion - 1300z 12/1/15 ------>


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Hello again!

 

A new thread for you all to post your thoughts, musings & banter weatherwise for our region

 

It's looking increasingly like some of us will see some of the white stuff over the next 24-36 hours, and then it's time to batten down the hatches as a 'bit of a breeze' is then on the cards!  :blink2:

 

 

so please carry on here, and for continuity, here's a link for the old thread .........    https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81813-southwest-and-central-southern-england-weather-chat/page-53

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Times like this I am so happy we got a puppy last year. I feel like a morning walk with the lad up the hill Wednesday at 6.30am can get to 300 m/asl. Just hope any ppn makes it this SW corner of dartmoor!

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In reply to a post on the last thread, I will take a bit of wet snow over what we have these past few weeks!

plus the models are looking better done the line

Fromey

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I do love the snow, don't get me wrong, but I love it even more if it settles and stays for a few days, and this obviously isn't going to happen. So I'm not too excited about tomorrow as I'll know it'll be gone by Thursday. Just hope that channel low scenario happens on Friday but my thinking is it won't

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I would take 2 hours walking in slushy snow than 2 hours in cold rain! :)  I still have a sneaking ssuspicion it will all go wrong though. March 2013 (though not on this scale) still haunts me!

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I would take 2 hours walking in slushy snow than 2 hours in cold rain! :)  I still have a sneaking ssuspicion it will all go wrong though. March 2013 (though not on this scale) still haunts me!

Was trying to think when it was that we had intense snowfall and none settled - but the mendips got obliterated- could well have been March 2013. Think I'm still scarred!

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Was trying to think when it was that we had intense snowfall and none settled - but the mendips got obliterated- could well have been March 2013. Think I'm still scarred!

 

i think this was when there were red alerts for the sw for biblical snow and in then it went all south literally and the channel islands got buried for 2 days! Epic fail!

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1421107200&regionName=sw

 

The warning appears positive for snow but towards the end of the update there seems to be a real uncertainty on the frequency and distribution of the showers. Its going to be a hit or miss affair I reckon 

Edited by festivalking
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i think this was when there were red alerts for the sw for biblical snow and in then it went all south literally and the channel islands got buried for 2 days! Epic fail!

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1421107200&regionName=sw

 

The warning appears positive for snow but towards the end of the update there seems to be a real uncertainty on the frequency and distribution of the showers. Its going to be a hit or miss affair I reckon 

This is definitely going to be a hit or miss affair. Some will get absolutely nothing out of this (either not cold enough so rain, or no precipitation), others could do well enough to see snow falling and settling. As ever this is likely to be yet another classic example of not taking NWP at longer time scales at face value. The old adage of getting the broad scale picture in place and then looking for things that pop up at short notice is often forgotten, but is the best way to go. The widely forecast Jan 2013 now from a front moving in (well forecast up to 5 days ahead) is the exception.

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Was trying to think when it was that we had intense snowfall and none settled - but the mendips got obliterated- could well have been March 2013. Think I'm still scarred!

 

feb 2009 was a classic example, we had 2 feet and wells had slight slushy deposits :oops: Your always welcome to pop up for tea :friends:

 

Often though height is just one factor and lower places can get just as much if the showers align just right etc

Edited by Nights King
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While most of you will be intently watching for snow, i'll be watching for thunder showers. Modest cape values push in to parts of Wales, SouthWest and Southern coasts & cold ELT's allow for production of anything Wintry! I cannot see anything snowy falling here, so I'm holding out for some thunder. :D

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i think this was when there were red alerts for the sw for biblical snow and in then it went all south literally and the channel islands got buried for 2 days! Epic fail!

 

 

 

Yes I remember that well, felt like being 3-0 up in a cup final, and loose 4-3 in the last 10 mins  :wallbash:

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To my eye the snow risk looks more increased for our region Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning according to the GFS Op, which equates to a very quiet Model Thread it would seem  :D

 

EDIT, more so on the GFS(P)  :yahoo: until the next run.

Edited by karlos1983
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Thats just it Karlos we get our hopes up only to have them smashed a few hours later, anyway fingers crossed for those with a little altitude.

 

Edit: Hell fingers crossed for all of us  :D

Edited by Rich_Clements
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To my eye the snow risk looks more increased for our region Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning according to the GFS Op, which equates to a very quiet Model Thread it would seem  :D

 

EDIT, more so on the GFS(P)  :yahoo: until the next run.

Channel low Friday mate? Who knows?!

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Channel low Friday mate? Who knows?!

 

I would say assume that it will not hit us because lets face it we have seen these in models every year only to see them utterly fail for last few decades now...

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Channel low Friday mate? Who knows?!

 

I would say assume that it will not hit us because lets face it we have seen these in models every year only to see them utterly fail for last few decades now...

 

It's just nice to see them appearing. must be a plausible outcome or it wouldn't be there. Fingers, toes etc crossed 

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I think a fair few of you might want to take a look at my post just now from the MOD thread copied below. I have linked to other experienced folk's thoughts within it.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82208-model-output-discussion-stormy-period-inbound/?p=3113440

 

 

:cold:

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Nice Tweet from Ian F

 

 

" W Country Tues brings a much colder day: between 5-10C less than today's values. Consistent snow signal in latest high-resolution modelling"

 

small steps people, small steps!

Edited by karlos1983
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I would say assume that it will not hit us because lets face it we have seen these in models every year only to see them utterly fail for last few decades now...

 

You know where it'll hit don't you, northern france/channel islands lol.....maybe i'm trying a bit of reverse psychology :D

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You know where it'll hit don't you, northern france/channel islands lol.....maybe i'm trying a bit of reverse psychology :D

 

:rofl:  :rofl:  Don't say that I think I would have to relocate there if it happens again! :angry:

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:rofl:  :rofl:  Don't say that I think I would have to relocate there if it happens again! :angry:

You need to update your signature mate. ;)

New data to enter soon etc.

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