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South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion - 1300z 12/1/15 ------>


A.J
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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

    Hello again!

     

    A new thread for you all to post your thoughts, musings & banter weatherwise for our region

     

    It's looking increasingly like some of us will see some of the white stuff over the next 24-36 hours, and then it's time to batten down the hatches as a 'bit of a breeze' is then on the cards!  :blink2:

     

     

    so please carry on here, and for continuity, here's a link for the old thread .........    https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81813-southwest-and-central-southern-england-weather-chat/page-53

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    Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny summers. cold snowy winters
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl

    Times like this I am so happy we got a puppy last year. I feel like a morning walk with the lad up the hill Wednesday at 6.30am can get to 300 m/asl. Just hope any ppn makes it this SW corner of dartmoor!

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    Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,

    In reply to a post on the last thread, I will take a bit of wet snow over what we have these past few weeks!

    plus the models are looking better done the line

    Fromey

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    Posted
  • Location: Split between Glastonbury and Bridgwater
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Split between Glastonbury and Bridgwater

    I do love the snow, don't get me wrong, but I love it even more if it settles and stays for a few days, and this obviously isn't going to happen. So I'm not too excited about tomorrow as I'll know it'll be gone by Thursday. Just hope that channel low scenario happens on Friday but my thinking is it won't

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    Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny summers. cold snowy winters
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl

    I would take 2 hours walking in slushy snow than 2 hours in cold rain! :)  I still have a sneaking ssuspicion it will all go wrong though. March 2013 (though not on this scale) still haunts me!

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    Posted
  • Location: Split between Glastonbury and Bridgwater
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Split between Glastonbury and Bridgwater

    I would take 2 hours walking in slushy snow than 2 hours in cold rain! :)  I still have a sneaking ssuspicion it will all go wrong though. March 2013 (though not on this scale) still haunts me!

    Was trying to think when it was that we had intense snowfall and none settled - but the mendips got obliterated- could well have been March 2013. Think I'm still scarred!

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    Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny summers. cold snowy winters
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl

    Was trying to think when it was that we had intense snowfall and none settled - but the mendips got obliterated- could well have been March 2013. Think I'm still scarred!

     

    i think this was when there were red alerts for the sw for biblical snow and in then it went all south literally and the channel islands got buried for 2 days! Epic fail!

     

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1421107200&regionName=sw

     

    The warning appears positive for snow but towards the end of the update there seems to be a real uncertainty on the frequency and distribution of the showers. Its going to be a hit or miss affair I reckon 

    Edited by festivalking
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    Posted
  • Location: Warminster
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, stormy
  • Location: Warminster

    i think this was when there were red alerts for the sw for biblical snow and in then it went all south literally and the channel islands got buried for 2 days! Epic fail!

     

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1421107200&regionName=sw

     

    The warning appears positive for snow but towards the end of the update there seems to be a real uncertainty on the frequency and distribution of the showers. Its going to be a hit or miss affair I reckon 

    This is definitely going to be a hit or miss affair. Some will get absolutely nothing out of this (either not cold enough so rain, or no precipitation), others could do well enough to see snow falling and settling. As ever this is likely to be yet another classic example of not taking NWP at longer time scales at face value. The old adage of getting the broad scale picture in place and then looking for things that pop up at short notice is often forgotten, but is the best way to go. The widely forecast Jan 2013 now from a front moving in (well forecast up to 5 days ahead) is the exception.

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    Posted
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
     

    Was trying to think when it was that we had intense snowfall and none settled - but the mendips got obliterated- could well have been March 2013. Think I'm still scarred!

     

    feb 2009 was a classic example, we had 2 feet and wells had slight slushy deposits :oops: Your always welcome to pop up for tea :friends:

     

    Often though height is just one factor and lower places can get just as much if the showers align just right etc

    Edited by Nights King
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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    While most of you will be intently watching for snow, i'll be watching for thunder showers. Modest cape values push in to parts of Wales, SouthWest and Southern coasts & cold ELT's allow for production of anything Wintry! I cannot see anything snowy falling here, so I'm holding out for some thunder. :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    i think this was when there were red alerts for the sw for biblical snow and in then it went all south literally and the channel islands got buried for 2 days! Epic fail!

     

     

     

    Yes I remember that well, felt like being 3-0 up in a cup final, and loose 4-3 in the last 10 mins  :wallbash:

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    To my eye the snow risk looks more increased for our region Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning according to the GFS Op, which equates to a very quiet Model Thread it would seem  :D

     

    EDIT, more so on the GFS(P)  :yahoo: until the next run.

    Edited by karlos1983
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    Posted
  • Location: Eastington Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Hot in Summer Cold in Winter
  • Location: Eastington Gloucestershire

    Thats just it Karlos we get our hopes up only to have them smashed a few hours later, anyway fingers crossed for those with a little altitude.

     

    Edit: Hell fingers crossed for all of us  :D

    Edited by Rich_Clements
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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    To my eye the snow risk looks more increased for our region Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning according to the GFS Op, which equates to a very quiet Model Thread it would seem  :D

     

    EDIT, more so on the GFS(P)  :yahoo: until the next run.

    Channel low Friday mate? Who knows?!

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    Posted
  • Location: Bulford, Wiltshire 98m asl
  • Weather Preferences: frosty, lots of snow and good ol fashion thunderstorms.
  • Location: Bulford, Wiltshire 98m asl

    Hoping any snow will make it this far. Told all the kids at work it might snow. They are all to young to remember seeing snow falling.

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    Posted
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon

    Channel low Friday mate? Who knows?!

     

    I would say assume that it will not hit us because lets face it we have seen these in models every year only to see them utterly fail for last few decades now...

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    Posted
  • Location: Warminster
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, stormy
  • Location: Warminster

    Hoping any snow will make it this far. Told all the kids at work it might snow. They are all to young to remember seeing snow falling.

    Too young to remember Jan 2013? I assume you work at a nursery then! :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

    Looking through the GFS Op and parallel there is a ongoing wintry risk throughout the run at this stage! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    Channel low Friday mate? Who knows?!

     

    I would say assume that it will not hit us because lets face it we have seen these in models every year only to see them utterly fail for last few decades now...

     

    It's just nice to see them appearing. must be a plausible outcome or it wouldn't be there. Fingers, toes etc crossed 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bulford, Wiltshire 98m asl
  • Weather Preferences: frosty, lots of snow and good ol fashion thunderstorms.
  • Location: Bulford, Wiltshire 98m asl

    Yep warmintim I work in a pre-school. So you can imagine they are getting a little bit excited.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

    I think a fair few of you might want to take a look at my post just now from the MOD thread copied below. I have linked to other experienced folk's thoughts within it.

     

    https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82208-model-output-discussion-stormy-period-inbound/?p=3113440

     

     

    :cold:

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    Nice Tweet from Ian F

     

     

    " W Country Tues brings a much colder day: between 5-10C less than today's values. Consistent snow signal in latest high-resolution modelling"

     

    small steps people, small steps!

    Edited by karlos1983
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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset

    I would say assume that it will not hit us because lets face it we have seen these in models every year only to see them utterly fail for last few decades now...

     

    You know where it'll hit don't you, northern france/channel islands lol.....maybe i'm trying a bit of reverse psychology :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon

    You know where it'll hit don't you, northern france/channel islands lol.....maybe i'm trying a bit of reverse psychology :D

     

    :rofl:  :rofl:  Don't say that I think I would have to relocate there if it happens again! :angry:

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    :rofl:  :rofl:  Don't say that I think I would have to relocate there if it happens again! :angry:

    You need to update your signature mate. ;)

    New data to enter soon etc.

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