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IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0049 UTC 11/01/2015
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 07U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 12.7S
Longitude: 159.2E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [192 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [11 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:    
Radius of 64-knot winds:    
Radius of Maximum Winds:    
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm [185 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[uTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  11/0600: 13.4S 159.2E:     030 [060]:  035  [065]:  994
+12:  11/1200: 14.1S 159.2E:     045 [080]:  035  [065]:  994
+18:  11/1800: 14.8S 159.4E:     055 [105]:  040  [075]:  992
+24:  12/0000: 15.5S 159.7E:     070 [130]:  045  [085]:  989
+36:  12/1200: 17.2S 161.6E:     090 [165]:  050  [095]:  987
+48:  13/0000: 18.1S 164.4E:     110 [200]:  045  [085]:  990
+60:  13/1200: 19.0S 167.9E:     130 [235]:  035  [065]:  997
+72:  14/0000: 21.7S 172.6E:     145 [270]:  030  [055]:  999
 992
REMARKS:
Overnight the deep convection has continued, with the cloud still separated from the low level centre. Shear pattern used for Dvorak, less than 0.75 deg from LLC. Location good with GMI Microwave Image at 22:36Z. TC genesis still possible through the next 12 to 24 hours. Two channel outflow to NW and SE as the system lies flanked by an upper trough to the south and monsoon return flow to the north. Very high SST [30C]. Shear generally moderate, though forecast to increase in the next 48 hours, which will then lead to more of a baroclinic structure.  
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia

 

From Nadi RSMC:
TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 - DAY OUTLOOK
Equator to 25S and 160E to 120W
Issue Time:
0400 UTC Saturday 10th January 2015
Next Issue:
0400 UTC Sunday 11th January 2015
Issued By: Tropical Cyclone Centre, RSMC, Nadi
Existing Tropical Cyclones:
Nil.
Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the region in each of the next three days, TILL 13th January, 2015:
A tropical depression located near 11.0S 159.0E is expected to move into Nadi RSMC’s area of responsibility on Sunday 11th January
 

Edited by tropicbreeze

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It looks like this low had a slight Fujiwhara interaction with the tropical low to the west. At this stage conditions appear unfavourable for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone.

From BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at 1920 UTC 11/01/2015:
REMARKS:
Despite a transitory puff of convection near the LLCC during the last few hours, the main deep convection associated with this system continues to be displaced to the north of the low level circulation centre. This is consistent with southerly vertical shear near 20 knots over the system as estimated from AMSU. Dvorak based on a shear pattern with DT of 1.5. MET is 2.0 and PAT is 1.5. Final T 1.5 with CI 2.0.

The system is located in an environment characterised by moderate southerly vertical wind shear, which is forecast to only slightly weaken in the next 24 hours, before gradually increasing once more. Intensification to weak TC strength is no longer considered likely, with little dynamic or statistical guidance forecasting this and a brief window of opportunity in a marginal environment at best.    

Some interaction with the tropical low [06U] to the west likely influenced the track yesterday, leading to a rather rapid SW to WSW motion. This motion appears to have ended during the last 6 hours based on microwave fixes. The upper level trough to the south should become the dominant steering feature today, leading to a change to a SE and eventually ESE track with increasing forward speed.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia

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