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Captain Shortwave

By Captain Shortwave
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carl1980 Experienced

carl1980

Posted
  • Location: St Helens, Merseyside 46m asl
  • Location: St Helens, Merseyside 46m asl
Posted

I've PM'ed you the login :)A period of light to moderate snow for one hour here. A lovely surprise! Usually get nothing at all from a northerly.

 

Stuck on the grass and where it was iced over, but that's it. Nothing on the paths etc. Did it stick properly further north in St Helens?

 

Currently 0.5C and feeling very cold.

 

Drove to Frodsham just now, a little more snow there on the ground than here, but less snow falling.

Melted on the ground,still on cars,temp falling away now -0.5c

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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted

-1.9c now, just put the bins out and it feels decidedly cold!

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Backtrack Accomplished

Backtrack

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
Posted

Ah unlucky, just didn't have the persistence!

 

Tuesday/Wednesday looks dodgy on the BBC graphics BUT, on the NMM. Steve Murr would become the man with the crystal ball. We'd be the sweet spot:

 

post-8895-0-37269300-1421612569_thumb.pn

post-8895-0-12336000-1421612571_thumb.pn

post-8895-0-07627400-1421612572_thumb.pn

post-8895-0-53431200-1421612573_thumb.pn

post-8895-0-54455700-1421612574_thumb.pn

 

I hope this comes off, and that we're on the right side of the decent uppers. We'd be buried! 15-18hrs of continuous, moderate snowfall.

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hammy Apprentice

hammy

Posted
  • Location: Rubery, Birmingham.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow!
  • Location: Rubery, Birmingham.
Posted (edited)

From veiwing the NMM 12z run I would say that our chances have snow have been upgraded albeit slightly. 

 

It would only take a shift of 50 miles, to put us right in the heavier precipitation, wednesday into thursday the model suggests that the snow line will be 0m away from the coast, which further bodes  well with my thoughts of the marginality issues further inland. 

 

At this moment in time at lower elevation around the coast the model is showing more of a wintry mix, but even this has been upgraded from the previous run.

 

Baby steps but all in the right way, we will know alot more in the coming 24 hours I believe.

 

Now im NOT saying we will be buried in snow, but what I do believe is that there will be enough for a snowball fight or 2! 

 

As for the flip from the models this evening... It is to be expected I think, with different signals cropping up stratospherically the models are bound to flip-flop, however as I keep stressing, FI for me starts at 96hrs, In my own viewing the GFS and UKMO have corrected the pattern west, this is what we want to see going forward.

 

Just my thoughts

Hammy  

Edited by hammy
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SparkleS Community Regular

SparkleS

Posted
  • Location: Leyland,Lancs, uk
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow,snow!! Ooh and sunny,warm days!!!
  • Location: Leyland,Lancs, uk
Posted

We had snow 2 hours ago! Wasnt enough to stick, clear skies now

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i luv snow Enthusiast

i luv snow

Posted
  • Location: Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Snow!
  • Location: Sydney, Australia
Posted

I definitely agree with Hammy and Backtrack above, excellent posts. No-one is suggesting places will be buried in snow, but if the ppn is around I think our region will see snow and various ppn charts I have seen show some quite consistent snowfall for midlands, NW (and further snow) - any marginality will stay well to the south. Still plenty of time for things to change but it's not all doom and gloom for Tue/Wed as some posts would have you believe!

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Backtrack Accomplished

Backtrack

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
Posted

I definitely agree with Hammy and Backtrack above, excellent posts. No-one is suggesting places will be buried in snow, but if the ppn is around I think our region will see snow and various ppn charts I have seen show some quite consistent snowfall for midlands, NW (and further snow) - any marginality will stay well to the south. Still plenty of time for things to change but it's not all doom and gloom for Tue/Wed as some posts would have you believe!

 

I definitely agree with Hammy and Backtrack above, excellent posts. No-one is suggesting places will be buried in snow, but if the ppn is around I think our region will see snow and various ppn charts I have seen show some quite consistent snowfall for midlands, NW (and further snow) - any marginality will stay well to the south. Still plenty of time for things to change but it's not all doom and gloom for Tue/Wed as some posts would have you believe!

 

 

The problem for me lies to our west. Usually, fronts like this have a habit of dying a death as they move past the Welsh mountains. We'll see. But up to now, it's looking great.

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i luv snow Enthusiast

i luv snow

Posted
  • Location: Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Snow!
  • Location: Sydney, Australia
Posted

The problem for me lies to our west. Usually, fronts like this have a habit of dying a death as they move past the Welsh mountains. We'll see. But up to now, it's looking great.

 

Fingers crossed for the ppn to make it across the NW :yahoo:

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Miamay Experienced

Miamay

Posted
  • Location: Walton, Liverpool. 38m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy weather
  • Location: Walton, Liverpool. 38m asl.
Posted

Bbc and met office now has us down for snow wed between 0000 - 0600/0900.

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cheshire snow Veteran

cheshire snow

Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
Posted

I definitely agree with Hammy and Backtrack above, excellent posts. No-one is suggesting places will be buried in snow, but if the ppn is around I think our region will see snow and various ppn charts I have seen show some quite consistent snowfall for midlands, NW (and further snow) - any marginality will stay well to the south. Still plenty of time for things to change but it's not all doom and gloom for Tue/Wed as some posts would have you believe!

Would not class some of the posts as doom and gloom, just a

Bit of realism, how many times have we been within touching

Distance of a good event only to get kicked in the plums, only

So many a times a man can get kicked there, and after so many

Let downs my plums are black and blue.Dont get me wrong I

Would love the WHOLE region to see a good fall, but I am far

from convinced for the next few days.

C.S

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hammy Apprentice

hammy

Posted
  • Location: Rubery, Birmingham.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow!
  • Location: Rubery, Birmingham.
Posted

The problem for me lies to our west. Usually, fronts like this have a habit of dying a death as they move past the Welsh mountains. We'll see. But up to now, it's looking great

 

Agreed, caution still needed.

 

My thoughts are also, if that low stall 50 miles further north then it will put this region under more precipitation, could be wrong! Still learning, but I will be interested to see if this occurs. 

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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted

Well the Met Office app is now showing light snow for Wednesday morning, step in the right direction!

post-9615-0-16817500-1421614197_thumb.jp

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Rnewbs Newbie

Rnewbs

Posted
  • Location: Whalley, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold please!
  • Location: Whalley, Lancashire
Posted

Can anyone see the temperature getting as low tonight as they are saying? I live fairly rural and the temperature is about 1C.

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James M Community Regular

James M

Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl
  • Weather Preferences: warm and sunny, thunderstorms, frost, fog, snow, windstorms
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl
Posted

Can anyone see the temperature getting as low tonight as they are saying? I live fairly rural and the temperature is about 1C.

Yes if the cloud clears over the snowfields and there's no breeze.

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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted

-2.0c now, Brrrrr....

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Backtrack Accomplished

Backtrack

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
Posted

Bbc and met office now has us down for snow wed between 0000 - 0600/0900.

 

Great upgrade. Ties in with the  NMM, although Fergie himself has said they don't use that model.

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Stratocumulus perlucidus Community Regular

Stratocumulus perlucidus

Posted
  • Location: St helens, warrington, widnes border
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, Clod snowy Winters
  • Location: St helens, warrington, widnes border
Posted

From veiwing the NMM 12z run I would say that our chances have snow have been upgraded albeit slightly. 

 

It would only take a shift of 50 miles, to put us right in the heavier precipitation, wednesday into thursday the model suggests that the snow line will be 0m away from the coast, which further bodes  well with my thoughts of the marginality issues further inland. 

 

At this moment in time at lower elevation around the coast the model is showing more of a wintry mix, but even this has been upgraded from the previous run.

 

Baby steps but all in the right way, we will know alot more in the coming 24 hours I believe.

 

Now im NOT saying we will be buried in snow, but what I do believe is that there will be enough for a snowball fight or 2! 

 

As for the flip from the models this evening... It is to be expected I think, with different signals cropping up stratospherically the models are bound to flip-flop, however as I keep stressing, FI for me starts at 96hrs, In my own viewing the GFS and UKMO have corrected the pattern west, this is what we want to see going forward.

 

Just my thoughts

Hammy

i can make snowballs from the freezer. I hope we domt get that little. I just looked at the 12z GFS and that showed a huge downgrade. Nothing after the first front, and this front falls as rain untill midnight and then for few hrs jts sleet onncoastal areas past the m6 corridoor
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hammy Apprentice

hammy

Posted
  • Location: Rubery, Birmingham.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow!
  • Location: Rubery, Birmingham.
Posted

i can make snowballs from the freezer. I hope we domt get that little. I just looked at the 12z GFS and that showed a huge downgrade. Nothing after the first front, and this front falls as rain untill midnight and then for few hrs jts sleet onncoastal areas past the m6 corridoor

 

 

I was talking about the NMM in the short term with regards to tues/weds snowfall as it copes much better than the GFS does in higher resolution.

 

If you want more snow than the average UK climate offers then move or go on a holiday to the mountains during winter.

 

And with regards to my comment about the GFS 12z I was talking about the general trend moving forward- after the event early this week.

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robbo88 Enthusiast

robbo88

Posted
  • Location: Hattersley, greater manchester 160m asl.
  • Location: Hattersley, greater manchester 160m asl.
Posted

This is a good post from harsh climate. Sounds promising for a lot of us. Hope he's right.

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82300-model-output-discussion-16th-jan-12z-onwards-smile-while-you-post/?p=3128798

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clangers23 Rookie

clangers23

Posted
  • Location: Davenham, Cheshire
  • Location: Davenham, Cheshire
Posted

Bbc and met office now has us down for snow wed between 0000 - 0600/0900.

 

Seems to be being revised with every run at the moment, just shows how difficult this is to forecast. It does seem to be looking likely for snow for our region on Tues/Weds now. The MOD thread is fun to follow, lots of swings from one extreme to the other.

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