North West England - Weather chat

[Thunder Snow]

Sun is out doesn't feel very cold

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Pretty heavy snow in workington

[Liam J]

Heavy hail and snow showers in cockermouth. Only 0.5c.

[frosty ground]

Looking at the radar the shower seem to be heading in from a more north westerly direction....... ?

[Weather-history]

This ones even worse

image.jpg

Pretty heavy snow in workington

Good old weather apps

[chiffer]

In Huyton currently and the weather is practically tropical!

[SparkleS]

What piggin snow? http://www.lep.co.uk/news/environment/environment/lancashire-for-more-wind-snow-and-freezing-temperatures-1-7054155

[SparkleS]

Well thats the new windows in, we got away with it without severe weather apart from when they took the furst window out in the hailstorm,thunder and lightenening this morning. I pity our elderly neighbours on monday if its going to be icy!

[frosty ground]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcw88et02#?tab=fiveDay&fcTime=1421452800

Massive upgrade on the latest data set for my location...... Lots of snow tomorrow. 

I know some people are not fans of these apps, but they are a good guide but not to be taken literately. 
 

[swainclubber]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcw88et02#?tab=fiveDay&fcTime=1421452800

Massive upgrade on the latest data set for my location...... Lots of snow tomorrow. 

I know some people are not fans of these apps, but they are a good guide but not to be taken literately. 

 

looking promising bud

Edited January 16, 2015 by swainclubber

[Snow free zone]

lol heres mine http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcw1fv42w#?tab=fiveDay&fcTime=1421452800

Edited January 16, 2015 by Snow free zone

[Thunder Snow]

Showers staying well to the south of me

[frosty ground]

lol heres mine http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcw1fv42w#?tab=fiveDay&fcTime=1421452800

eeek 

[Snow free zone]

eeek 

 

That metoffice forecast for here at least is usually the most accurate. Got it spot on during the no snow events of 2 winters ago.  Too much of a w/sw for any snow this close to the coast this weekend, further inland a different story though.    

[Backtrack]

Looking very promising tomorrow according to the Short Range NMM model. Although I suspect that it could indeed be UNDERDOING the precipitation amounts here. As we've seen today, the Irish Sea is volatile. It's creating showers out of no where as it usually does, but mostly all of us were forecast to be dry around the 11:00hrs-14:00hrs. The NMM has a rather heavy feature moving across much of the region around 2pm today. Either a trough embedded into the flow, or a very organised cluster of showers. Given the intensity, this would be mostly all of snow away from the immediate coastal regions. As the colder air moves over the warm surface temperatures of the Irish Sea it'll create a hell of a lot of convection. Here's what's modelled to come into play 2hrs from this post:

This looks in almost perfect synchronisation with the Met Office yellow warning issued today, and it's perfectly clear to understand why the warning was adjusted southwards. Further west like myself could unfortunately struggle because of those warmer SST's.

Tomorrow is more interesting, IMBY anyway, with a streamer situation setting up. These can be absolute snow machines given the right position, and it looks like a fair few of them could float through the Cheshire gap, given the exact direction of the wind flow. But tomorrow has caught my eye more-so than today, which as of this moment has only delivered rain. That being said, I am currently in Liverpool in university, where it tends to be a couple of Celsius warmer due to the proximity to the River Mersey.

Here's the streamer setup for tomorrow that could benefit the south of the region, I can't see the NMM being too far out with this prediction it's giving for tomorrow:

It's giving sleet even a good distance from the coast. I'd suggest it'll be more like 5-10 miles from the coast and eastwards which receive the wintriness, with them intensifying further inland as they reach Manchester, preparing for uplift as the enter the area closest to The Pennines. A very good indicator on why the Met Office have Oldham down for a day of heavy snow tomorrow. Here's what expected, again by the NMM for tomorrow afternoon. It SCREAMS streamer/trough potential, and I have a feeling we will ALL do well from this.

Uppers fantastic for good snow.

Apart from Itsnowjoke. Itsnowjoke will have a nice, mild, dry, sunny, calm day

Edited January 16, 2015 by Backtrack

[NickyB]

Hail hurrah! Something wintery at least :-)

[feb1991blizzard]

LOL  -  BBC has heavy snow overnight fri - lunch time sat and some sort of snow most of the time up until am sunda.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ol3

 

And I will walk up the high street stark naked.....

[Dr. Astro]

You can clearly see the cold air digging in and the convection starting:

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=radar;sess=

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Just caught the edge of a snow shower, snowed for about 5 minutes now stopped, pretty gobsmacked the showers aren't dying over the sea in a NWley for once

[itsnowjoke]

Snowing here

[Liam J]

Had a few more heavy snow showers, melts in between showers but the hills are covered even fairly low ones. Proper wintry day

[chiffer]

Looking very promising tomorrow according to the Short Range NMM model. Although I suspect that it could indeed be UNDERDOING the precipitation amounts here. As we've seen today, the Irish Sea is volatile. It's creating showers out of no where as it usually does, but mostly all of us were forecast to be dry around the 11:00hrs-14:00hrs. The NMM has a rather heavy feature moving across much of the region around 2pm today. Either a trough embedded into the flow, or a very organised cluster of showers. Given the intensity, this would be mostly all of snow away from the immediate coastal regions. As the colder air moves over the warm surface temperatures of the Irish Sea it'll create a hell of a lot of convection. Here's what's modelled to come into play 2hrs from this post:

trough.png

This looks in almost perfect synchronisation with the Met Office yellow warning issued today, and it's perfectly clear to understand why the warning was adjusted southwards. Further west like myself could unfortunately struggle because of those warmer SST's.

 

Tomorrow is more interesting, IMBY anyway, with a streamer situation setting up. These can be absolute snow machines given the right position, and it looks like a fair few of them could float through the Cheshire gap, given the exact direction of the wind flow. But tomorrow has caught my eye more-so than today, which as of this moment has only delivered rain. That being said, I am currently in Liverpool in university, where it tends to be a couple of Celsius warmer due to the proximity to the River Mersey.

 

Here's the streamer setup for tomorrow that could benefit the south of the region, I can't see the NMM being too far out with this prediction it's giving for tomorrow:

viewimageRAXGVCPD.png

 

It's giving sleet even a good distance from the coast. I'd suggest it'll be more like 5-10 miles from the coast and eastwards which receive the wintriness, with them intensifying further inland as they reach Manchester, preparing for uplift as the enter the area closest to The Pennines. A very good indicator on why the Met Office have Oldham down for a day of heavy snow tomorrow. Here's what expected, again by the NMM for tomorrow afternoon. It SCREAMS streamer/trough potential, and I have a feeling we will ALL do well from this.

 

viewimage2.png

 

Uppers fantastic for good snow.

viewimage.png

 

 

Apart from Snowjoke. Snowjoke will have a nice, mild, dry, sunny, calm day

I'm around 25 miles away from the coast and I wouldn't expect to see any snow today or tomorrow as of yet! I love your optimism though, it's very refreshing after being in the mod thread!

[Liam J]

I'm a less than two miles from the coast and it was snowing this morning before I went to work, so you don't have to be much inland to see snow. Not sure if the same applies to the south of the region?

[Snow free zone]

It SCREAMS streamer/trough potential, and I have a feeling we will ALL do well from this.

 

Lets wait and see shall we.

[Liam J]

More showers developing and heading this way