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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    Are they showers mucka or something a bit more organised.

     

    Shower band but showers merging by the look of it. Euro4 is much higher res than GFS and it is quite reluctant to predict snow where rain will do normally so fingers crossed. It must be from small embedded troughs moving North to South in the flow. These features are very hard to model and ppn is easily overdone or underdone.

    Edited by Mucka
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    For goodness sake, will people stop hanging on to every nuance of what some silly app says?! It will be down to the here and now when it gets here.

    Snow this morning in Saddleworth.......will there be more on Tue/ Weds??

    Hello follow north westerners, I'm just south of the city of Preston ( Walton Le dale) I've been watching the forum for a couple a years, but never posted but trying to understand what is going on, th

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    Posted
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snow winter, Warm/hot summer, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL

    Heavy rain with odd bits of hail im afraid.

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    Posted
  • Location: Birkenhead
  • Location: Birkenhead

    Here's what SM thinks but when is it for?

    Great news from Ian update ( sort of aligns to the raw JMA )

     

    anyway here is my forecast track of the low- I will update it with model forecast tracks tomorrow.....

     

     

    attachicon.gifUK MAP.png

     

    * Orange central line is my forecast track

    * Two outer orange lines are the cone ( northern & Southern extent

    * Inside the Blue lines is my forecast snow zone

    * Inside the red circle is my forecast sweet spot

    * Inside the lower red circle is the possible mixing zone ( rain sleet & snow)

    * The pink lines highlights the probably adjustments-  higher probability it will be to the left of my line if anywhere....

     

    regards

    Steve

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    anybody got current dew point figures?

     

    A really rough guess but about 2c an hour ago.

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    Posted
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snow winter, Warm/hot summer, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL

    think its a bit early be making maps where snows going to be tbh

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    Here's what SM thinks but when is it for?

     

     

    I imagine he is talking about the South for Sunday. Looks like a shortwave and associated front might scrape the South and give a few inches of snow if they get lucky.

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    Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

    Manchester airport TAF is a cracker for tomorrow snow showers from midday onwards 

     

    C.S


    Temps way to high for anything wintry here

     

    air Temp 5c DP 2C

     

    C.S

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    Dew point of 1c here grrrr.

     

    Not expected to drop below 0 until tomorrow morning for our region so snow before then unlikely unless you catch a very heavy shower.

     

    15011609_1518.gif15011612_1518.gif

     

    The second chart is for when the snow is supposed to be falling - we can see how marginal it will be so any elevation will help. unfortunately I don't have any. :(

     

    DP's continue to quickly drop away into the afternoon though - knife  edge.

     

    15011615_1518.gif

    Edited by Mucka
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    Posted
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snow winter, Warm/hot summer, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL

    Turned to sleet/wet snow!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Littleborough,Greater manchester 164m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Summer storms, hot summer days and Snow :)
  • Location: Littleborough,Greater manchester 164m asl

    Not expected to drop below 0 until tomorrow morning for our region so snow before then unlikely unless you catch a very heavy shower.

     

    15011609_1518.gif15011612_1518.gif

     

    The second chart is for when the snow is supposed to be falling - we can see how marginal it will be so any elevation will help. unfortunately I don't have any. :(

     

    DP's continue to quickly drop away into the afternoon though - knife  edge.

     

    15011615_1518.gif

    cheers matey
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    But isnt the north west in the sweet spot or am i reading this wrong?

     

    It is a different event. The slider is due about the 20th. Much too far out to make any predictions where the sweet spot will be on that.

    It could be the whole of the UK stays dry if it goes too far West or it is snow to rain for us if it goes too far East, 

    Won't know for some days yet so don't get too worked up by each run because they will change every run at the moment. Dry one time, heavy snow another, rain another etc.

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    Posted
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snow winter, Warm/hot summer, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL

    the local fells should have a dusting for the first time this winter

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    Hes talking about the slider low tuesday....

     

    Ah yes just popped in to check. He is talking about South on JMA though.

    Wouldn't take much notice, it is pure speculation at the moment.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    It is a different event. The slider is due about the 20th. Much too far out to make any predictions where the sweet spot will be on that.

    It could be the whole of the UK stays dry if it goes too far West or it is snow to rain for us if it goes too far East, 

    Won't know for some days yet so don't get too worked up by each run because they will change every run at the moment. Dry one time, heavy snow another, rain another etc.

     

     

    I doubt it will be much further East than where its modelled now to be honest, it might be further West.

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    Posted
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snow winter, Warm/hot summer, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL

    its stopped tbw but we had heavy sleet/wet snow for about 10 minutes

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    I doubt it will be much further East than where its modelled now to be honest, it might be further West.

     

    I would agree with that. Corrections SW most likely.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    I would agree with that. Corrections SW most likely.

     

    I could stomach missing out on that (just about) as long as it ultimately ended up far enough East ultimately but not too far south so it propped the block up and gave us a long draw long drawn out Easterly from Russia!!!!

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