North West England - Weather chat

[Mucka]

Hmm big downgrade on latest for my location with any snow delayed until 9pm then light snow  until around midnight followed by sleet and light rain

No accumulations here if that is right.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcw21fpb4#?fcTime=1421798400

 

Sheffield though has had a huge upgrade from mainly dry to this! (and 3 hours light snow beforehand!)

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcqzwtdw7#?fcTime=1421798400

 

Why can't that be me, just once! 

 

Same BS more snow forecast to my West, South, North and East than my location. Unreal but it hasn't happened yet so who knows (he said putting the rope back down)

Edited January 20, 2015 by Mucka

[hammy]

Well the day has finally arrived after much flipping and flopping! 

 

Even in to a such short term the front is behaving differently to its previous projections, defiantly a nowcast event. Metoffice have upgraded the snow for me, but for me its not about how much snow I get, I just like seeing everything white over with snow falling out of the sky! Something that I think most of us will see in this region. 

 

Areas that see the heaviest precip values will see accumulations not akin to the levels of previous winters but at least we will see something! 

 

Still plenty of winter to come as well, feb is statistically the coldest month of winter for the UK- heres hoping! We look to the magical realms of FI for pattern changes.

 

Edit: as i post that- mucka posts the metoffice update! maybe I should just keep my mouth shut 

Edited January 20, 2015 by hammy

[The Northern Ramper]

The last time we had a setup like this everywhere in the north got buried and we had nothing, some Pennine shadow effect was blamed.

I'm not hopeful.

[frosty ground]

Hmm big downgrade on latest for my location with any snow delayed until 9pm then light snow  until around midnight followed by sleet and light rain

No accumulations here if that is right.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcw21fpb4#?fcTime=1421798400

 

Sheffield though has had a huge upgrade from mainly dry to this! (and 3 hours light snow beforehand!)

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcqzwtdw7#?fcTime=1421798400

 

Why can't that be me, just once! 

 

Same BS more snow forecast to my West, South, North and East than my location. Unreal but it hasn't happened yet so who knows (he said putting the rope back down)

Why did you expect any different from this set-up, once it was clear the wind was a south easterly then snow east of our region was a non starter.

[robbo88]

 

Same BS more snow forecast to my West, South, North and East than my location. Unreal but it hasn't happened yet so who knows (he said putting the rope back down)

im north eas of you and just have cloud forcast.

hopefully will suprise us all.

[Jan]

I think that was just a Southerners thing, I was always quite optimistic about tonight.

The south-easterly flow will make all the difference as it has in the past, I'm 99% sure of that. :-)

Also nice to see we have the Met on board now with the warnings and a very encouraging assessment by Ian Ferguson on another thread this morning.

My office go by the Met, hence the warnings to staff, they're hoping a certain minority don't see a snow flake and

go off sick. I am working until 8pm so I'll either be out in it or lamppost watching

[Snow free zone]

The last time we had a setup like this everywhere in the north got buried and we had nothing, some Pennine shadow effect was blamed.

I'm not hopeful.

 

Welcome to my world http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcw1fv42w#?tab=fiveDay&fcTime=1421798400

[chris78]

Hmm big downgrade on latest for my location with any snow delayed until 9pm then light snow  until around midnight followed by sleet and light rain

No accumulations here if that is right.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcw21fpb4#?fcTime=1421798400

 

Sheffield though has had a huge upgrade from mainly dry to this! (and 3 hours light snow beforehand!)

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcqzwtdw7#?fcTime=1421798400

 

Why can't that be me, just once! 

 

Same BS more snow forecast to my West, South, North and East than my location. Unreal but it hasn't happened yet sow ho knows (he said putting the 

Im not sure (I could be wrong) that those graphics are any better than weather apps.   I'd bet they are computer generated, there is no forecaster input to them, so if they upgrade or downgrade its irrelevant really.    The best guide now is to watch the radar, hope its gets to you and see what other people get as its over them. 

[Mucka]

Why did you expect any different from this set-up, once it was clear the wind was a south easterly then snow east of our region was a non starter.

 

I didn't originally, I expected snizzle but things were falling into place and the shadow effect should really play out more when ppn is pushing up SW/NE but this front is behaving erratically with some ppn sliding almost due N from the SW and ppn further N seemingly pushing W.

It could still flip back.

surprised Sheffield has been forecast a snowfest, it looked likely to stay mainly dry at one point.

[frosty ground]

Im not sure (I could be wrong) that those graphics are any better than weather apps.   I'd bet they are computer generated, there is no forecaster input to them, so if they upgrade or downgrade its irrelevant really.    The best guide now is to watch the radar, hope its gets to you and see what other people get as its over them. 

Yes that would be the case under other circumstances......... but this is a south easterly and the precipitation will be eaten by the peak district.

The APPS are now correct because the high res models that produce these forecasts are now seeing this.

Keep an eye on wind direction as well as Radar if you must!

 

Edited January 20, 2015 by frosty ground

[Mucka]

Im not sure (I could be wrong) that those graphics are any better than weather apps.   I'd bet they are computer generated, there is no forecaster input to them, so if they upgrade or downgrade its irrelevant really.    The best guide now is to watch the radar, hope its gets to you and see what other people get as its over them. 

 

Are they pure computer generated at MetO site?

You could well be right, weather apps are certainly pretty useless, it just plays right into my worse fears so of course I believe it.

Also it has been trending that way, at one point we were down for some heavy snow, then light snow, then light snow and dry then light snow and sleet

Whats next light sleet?

[Snowy L]

Im not sure (I could be wrong) that those graphics are any better than weather apps.   I'd bet they are computer generated, there is no forecaster input to them, so if they upgrade or downgrade its irrelevant really.    The best guide now is to watch the radar, hope its gets to you and see what other people get as its over them. 

 

This, looking at the gfs precipitation forecast would be just as accurate as these graphics. It's a case of nowcasting, but knowing the metoffice have confidence that it should snow for many in this region.

 

Cooling down here after a high of 2.5c, currently 2.3c

Edited January 20, 2015 by Snowy L

[Liam J]

Reached 1.4c, wow! DP -2c. 

Edited January 20, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Mucka]

This, looking at the gfs precipitation forecast would be just as accurate as these graphics. It's a case of nowcasting, but knowing the metoffice have confidence that it should snow for many in this region.

 

Cooling down here after a high of 2.5c, currently 2.3c

 

Yes but the same forecasts are much better for further West, St Helens getting snow and heavy snow for example. I would feel pretty confident of getting something in that region. (Except if I actually lived there LOL)

Edited January 20, 2015 by Mucka

[James M]

A max of 1.3C today, so a lot of that horrid drip drip of melting snow. Lovely and sunny atm though, so it should drop like a stone until the cloud comes in later.

[Liam J]

Just need that front to move east!!

[Mokidugway]

Not expecting much temp 3.9 c clouded over in last hour !!.

[Spah1]

Hmm big downgrade on latest for my location with any snow delayed until 9pm then light snow  until around midnight followed by sleet and light rain

No accumulations here if that is right.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcw21fpb4#?fcTime=1421798400

 

Sheffield though has had a huge upgrade from mainly dry to this! (and 3 hours light snow beforehand!)

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcqzwtdw7#?fcTime=1421798400

 

Why can't that be me, just once! 

 

Same BS more snow forecast to my West, South, North and East than my location. Unreal but it hasn't happened yet so who knows (he said putting the rope back down)

Bloody hell, Sheffield again!

 

Chorley gone from 17hrs last night to just cloud tonight, aaaaahhhh

Edited January 20, 2015 by Spah1

[gearbox100]

It's very cold outside today, cloud increasing now.

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Latest bbc forcast has the ppn not making it upto merseyside

[SparkleS]

Dont understand yesterday icy on ground and cars and it didnt get past 1.5 degrees all day. Today tbe temp has risen to 3.3 thawed out but really icy cold outside, its really cold!

[chiffer]

Latest bbc forcast has the ppn not making it upto merseyside

That would be because they're idiots

[gearbox100]

Talking of apps and useless for the first time in 3 years my HTC phone weather app has gone to snow. It must be a sign.

[frosty ground]

Latest bbc forcast has the ppn not making it upto merseyside

Which is odd because it doesn't look that far away ATM.

It's started to build east now at least

[Jan]

Any one know the hpa for Merseyside, just re setting my weather station, can't find the website I usually use..............it's automatically set at 1013hpa? Just checked to Met website, I think it's right now

Edited January 20, 2015 by Jan