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Captain Shortwave

By Captain Shortwave
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Hocus Pocus Community Regular

Hocus Pocus

Posted
  • Location: Newton in Bowland
  • Location: Newton in Bowland
Posted

Well looking at the model output it's a bit of a mixed bunch really, on one hand the cold seems to get extended a little but the precipitation gets downgraded a lot. As for snow on Tuesday and the rest of the week, well it looks a case of nowcasting as it all looks very marginal indeed with any signal for snow looking weaker by the hour due to the mild sector which appears to take a liking for the NW. This is the problem when you don't have any heights over Greenland for our neck of the woods, we're always on the edge of the colder uppers. 

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

Heavy freezing rain here now, -0.9°

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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted

I'll eat my hat if this comes off tonight!! Lol

post-9615-0-49742400-1421575787_thumb.jp

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iand61 Maestro

iand61

Posted
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat and winter cold, and a bit of snow when on offer
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
Posted

it won't be unheard to have another upgrade in between :)

Always possible and we're certainly due an upgrade but I'd not put my last fiver on it.

In the more immediate term, the precipitation to the north is now starting to enter Lancashire.

What if anything falls, we'll have to wait and see but the wait shouldn't be too long.

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Oakwell Contributor

Oakwell

Posted
  • Location: Blackrod Nr Bolton 156m ASL
  • Location: Blackrod Nr Bolton 156m ASL
Posted

I am certainly enjoying this cold spell so far. Nice views of the Wintery landscape

 

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i luv snow Enthusiast

i luv snow

Posted
  • Location: Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Snow!
  • Location: Sydney, Australia
Posted (edited)

Looking at quickly at the NMM12 any snow looks like it would be restricted to inland elevated locations as Temps and DP's remain positive as the front moves in before breaking up. 

 

In these situations, it's going to be nowcasting not using any form of model to distinguish rain/sleet/snow imo. I wouldn't rule out snow for our region yet.

 

The GFS ppn charts for example show less heavy ppn (however these things can change) but still go for snow from both fronts in areas of the NW - the first front seems to arrive a little later however.. Of course, it's still all up in the air.

Edited by i luv snow
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i luv snow Enthusiast

i luv snow

Posted
  • Location: Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Snow!
  • Location: Sydney, Australia
Posted

Always possible and we're certainly due an upgrade but I'd not put my last fiver on it.

In the more immediate term, the precipitation to the north is now starting to enter Lancashire.

What if anything falls, we'll have to wait and see but the wait shouldn't be too long.

 

NW radar says it is snow. Although Liam J has just said it was rain for him. It's still 0oC and foggy here in Manchester, and snowy across parts of Lancashire, so hopefully any ppn will be snow.

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iand61 Maestro

iand61

Posted
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat and winter cold, and a bit of snow when on offer
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
Posted

Thick with fog here

Non here, clouding over a bit but still sunny.

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Interitus Accomplished

Interitus

Posted
Posted (edited)

I'll eat my hat if this comes off tonight!! Lol

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

 

The -10°C will be for somewhere like Shap in Cumbria. From the 06z synop report this morning they have 4cm snow and recorded a minimum of -7.7°C last night so a lower figure should be possible tonight.

Edited by Interitus
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Miamay Experienced

Miamay

Posted
  • Location: Walton, Liverpool. 38m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy weather
  • Location: Walton, Liverpool. 38m asl.
Posted

Heavy sleety rain here

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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted

Yeah I noticed it was very cold on Shap earlier but the temp jumped up as the ppn moved in. 3c here and still cloudy. 

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i luv snow Enthusiast

i luv snow

Posted
  • Location: Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Snow!
  • Location: Sydney, Australia
Posted (edited)

Heavy sleety rain here

Does Liverpool have freezing fog like in parts of Lancs and Mancs?This is holding temps down here.

 

Unfortunately it seems the ppn moving in from Irish sea is rain on Welsh coasts/Merseyside area - but the front moving down will introduce northerly winds later today, will feel very cold. Unfortunately, a northerly will problem start to dampen the ppn in this region, making it a lot drier, but will definitely be colder than the westerly influence we had from the Irish sea.

 

Places around freezing now, should hopefully see a little more snow before this though with the front moving through. I have no hopes for me as we only saw sleety rain then wet snow last night - but areas away from city centre's should still see the white stuff falling!

 

Tonight, will be very cold for everyone!

Edited by i luv snow
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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

Still rain here, although now stopped. temp now +1.1° and rising quickly.

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Miamay Experienced

Miamay

Posted
  • Location: Walton, Liverpool. 38m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy weather
  • Location: Walton, Liverpool. 38m asl.
Posted

Does Liverpool have freezing fog like in parts of Lancs and Mancs?This is holding temps down here.

 

Unfortunately it seems the ppn moving in from Irish sea is rain on Welsh coasts/Merseyside area - but the front moving down will introduce northerly winds later today, will feel very cold. Unfortunately, a northerly will problem start to dampen the ppn in this region, making it a lot drier, but will definitely be colder than the westerly influence we had from the Irish sea.

 

Places around freezing now, should hopefully see a little more snow before this though with the front moving through.

 

And tonight, will be very cold for everyone!

Hiya !! No fog here im afraid. Just heavy showers. Am getting a bit sick of the sleety rain.

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cheshire snow Veteran

cheshire snow

Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
Posted
In these situations, it's going to be nowcasting not using any form of model to distinguish rain/sleet/snow imo. I wouldn't rule out snow for our region yet.

 

The GFS ppn charts for example show less heavy ppn (however these things can change) but still go for snow from both fronts in areas of the NW - the first front seems to arrive a little later however.. Of course, it's still all up in the air.[/quote

I like your enthusiasm, the forecast on news 24 15 mins showed

The front fragmenting rapidly as it hits the mainland, and as far as

PPN charts are concerned they are all useless, yes this week will

Be in the cool category with ice and frost, but for those looking

for a good snow event, I think most will be dissapointed, such a

shame that what looked quite promising has yet again be

downgraded to nothing, standard for this country i, m afraid

C.S

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chicken soup Aficionado

chicken soup

Posted
  • Location: blackburn
  • Weather Preferences: heavy snow/ heatwaves
  • Location: blackburn
Posted

All those saying no snow tue ....steve murr disagrees his snow forecast map with us in a prime spot still stands...also 6z still shows heavy snow for us.....ALL IS NOT LOST.

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chiffer Enthusiast

chiffer

Posted
  • Location: St. Helens
  • Location: St. Helens
Posted

I wouldn't get too down about Tuesday even if it doesn't snow, met office are just reacting to whatever the models are showing them on each run by the looks of things, we'll know more on the 12z.

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

Hiya !! No fog here im afraid. Just heavy showers. Am getting a bit sick of the sleety rain.

Well the temp reached -2.4°C in the early morning and was still at -1 before this rain arrived, but is now risen Way above freezing.. The temps should have been low enough but it seems we cannot even get snow at -1° anymore.
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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted

NMM4 temp predictions come Monday morning. Also shows the front Tue evening decaying rapidly as it moves over Ireland. 

 

post-9615-0-87483300-1421577212_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-57518600-1421577368_thumb.pn

 

 

 

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