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North West England - Weather chat


Captain Shortwave

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Are they showers mucka or something a bit more organised.

 

Shower band but showers merging by the look of it. Euro4 is much higher res than GFS and it is quite reluctant to predict snow where rain will do normally so fingers crossed. It must be from small embedded troughs moving North to South in the flow. These features are very hard to model and ppn is easily overdone or underdone.

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snow winter, Warm/hot summer, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL

Heavy rain with odd bits of hail im afraid.

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Posted
  • Location: Birkenhead
  • Location: Birkenhead

Here's what SM thinks but when is it for?

Great news from Ian update ( sort of aligns to the raw JMA )

 

anyway here is my forecast track of the low- I will update it with model forecast tracks tomorrow.....

 

 

attachicon.gifUK MAP.png

 

* Orange central line is my forecast track

* Two outer orange lines are the cone ( northern & Southern extent

* Inside the Blue lines is my forecast snow zone

* Inside the red circle is my forecast sweet spot

* Inside the lower red circle is the possible mixing zone ( rain sleet & snow)

* The pink lines highlights the probably adjustments-  higher probability it will be to the left of my line if anywhere....

 

regards

Steve

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Posted
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snow winter, Warm/hot summer, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL

think its a bit early be making maps where snows going to be tbh

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Here's what SM thinks but when is it for?

 

 

I imagine he is talking about the South for Sunday. Looks like a shortwave and associated front might scrape the South and give a few inches of snow if they get lucky.

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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

Manchester airport TAF is a cracker for tomorrow snow showers from midday onwards 

 

C.S


Temps way to high for anything wintry here

 

air Temp 5c DP 2C

 

C.S

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Dew point of 1c here grrrr.

 

Not expected to drop below 0 until tomorrow morning for our region so snow before then unlikely unless you catch a very heavy shower.

 

15011609_1518.gif15011612_1518.gif

 

The second chart is for when the snow is supposed to be falling - we can see how marginal it will be so any elevation will help. unfortunately I don't have any. :(

 

DP's continue to quickly drop away into the afternoon though - knife  edge.

 

15011615_1518.gif

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snow winter, Warm/hot summer, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL

Turned to sleet/wet snow!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Littleborough,Greater manchester 164m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Summer storms, hot summer days and Snow :)
  • Location: Littleborough,Greater manchester 164m asl

Not expected to drop below 0 until tomorrow morning for our region so snow before then unlikely unless you catch a very heavy shower.

 

15011609_1518.gif15011612_1518.gif

 

The second chart is for when the snow is supposed to be falling - we can see how marginal it will be so any elevation will help. unfortunately I don't have any. :(

 

DP's continue to quickly drop away into the afternoon though - knife  edge.

 

15011615_1518.gif

cheers matey
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

But isnt the north west in the sweet spot or am i reading this wrong?

 

It is a different event. The slider is due about the 20th. Much too far out to make any predictions where the sweet spot will be on that.

It could be the whole of the UK stays dry if it goes too far West or it is snow to rain for us if it goes too far East, 

Won't know for some days yet so don't get too worked up by each run because they will change every run at the moment. Dry one time, heavy snow another, rain another etc.

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Posted
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snow winter, Warm/hot summer, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL

the local fells should have a dusting for the first time this winter

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Hes talking about the slider low tuesday....

 

Ah yes just popped in to check. He is talking about South on JMA though.

Wouldn't take much notice, it is pure speculation at the moment.

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

It is a different event. The slider is due about the 20th. Much too far out to make any predictions where the sweet spot will be on that.

It could be the whole of the UK stays dry if it goes too far West or it is snow to rain for us if it goes too far East, 

Won't know for some days yet so don't get too worked up by each run because they will change every run at the moment. Dry one time, heavy snow another, rain another etc.

 

 

I doubt it will be much further East than where its modelled now to be honest, it might be further West.

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Posted
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snow winter, Warm/hot summer, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL

its stopped tbw but we had heavy sleet/wet snow for about 10 minutes

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

I doubt it will be much further East than where its modelled now to be honest, it might be further West.

 

I would agree with that. Corrections SW most likely.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

I would agree with that. Corrections SW most likely.

 

I could stomach missing out on that (just about) as long as it ultimately ended up far enough East ultimately but not too far south so it propped the block up and gave us a long draw long drawn out Easterly from Russia!!!!

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