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Atlantic Storm 14th - 15th January


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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
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    With a combination of a weather bomb & sting jet overnight, I hope it doesn't cause to much damage IMBY    I'm sorry I just couldn't resist 

    Just like what I done with the storm last week I've made up a map showing the top wind speeds according to the Met Office on their Weather Map to give a quick and easy view on the wind speeds,  

    Sod the storm, it's the imminent Ice Age I'm concerned about!      

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    A couple of fergie tweets this morning:

    @fergieweather: "@BrianCarter14: Looks like a very nasty system. The track is uncertain perhaps Ian?" Yes, although not expected as far N as one last week

    @fergieweather: @BrianCarter14 ...Thus this time, emphasis for strongest winds is southern UK rather than far north. But it'll take time for clearer details

    Looking at the MO wind map (cautiously) it is showing higher gust speeds down here than the St Jude's day storm. I use that as an example because quite a few folks called it a "leaf rustler"

    Not here! I went out that night to St Aldhems head in Swanage, to get some readings- we had to leave quickly due to so much debris flying about and trees coming down.

    That aside, I am looking forward to such a varied and exciting period of weather!

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    It must be that the meto think 'well their well used to it there so no red required' either that or they have a different scale of red warning for those areas, or just calculated on population and how important the local infrastructure is to the economy ??

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    With the wind gusts the met office charts are showing I think its just a matter of time now till early warnings are issued for the south

     

    Untitled1.pngUntitled2.pngUntitled3.pngUntitled4.pngUntitled5.png

     

    Gusts peaking just over 70mph for Brighton and Dover gusts also exceed 70mph for a time in the south west

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    Posted
  • Location: East County Clare
  • Location: East County Clare

    If you look at the description of the matrix that is issued by the MO it's based on impact rather than over 'x' amount warrants such and such a warning. Relatively speaking still a way to go till specifics are finalised

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    Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, high winds, thunder, snow
  • Location: Upminster, Essex

    A couple of fergie tweets this morning:

    @fergieweather: "@BrianCarter14: Looks like a very nasty system. The track is uncertain perhaps Ian?" Yes, although not expected as far N as one last week

    @fergieweather: @BrianCarter14 ...Thus this time, emphasis for strongest winds is southern UK rather than far north. But it'll take time for clearer details

    Looking at the MO wind map (cautiously) it is showing higher gust speeds down here than the St Jude's day storm. I use that as an example because quite a few folks called it a "leaf rustler"

    Not here! I went out that night to St Aldhems head in Swanage, to get some readings- we had to leave quickly due to so much debris flying about and trees coming down.

    That aside, I am looking forward to such a varied and exciting period of weather!

    St Jude = Officially the most overhyped storm in history, the storms in October 2000 and 2002 where both significantly stronger and longer lasting. A wind event that only lasts about 40 minutes can't even be warranted a Storm in my opinion, it was a freak squall nothing more!

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Those in the far north and western isles must be looking at this thread and thinking ' what on earth is all the fuss about' !

    Let's not go down that route. :good:

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    Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=16&ech=6&carte=&mode=0

     

    is  it  me or  is this storm  more south   now   and  its now on the same track  as  st jude  last  year

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    Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=16&ech=6&carte=&mode=0

     

    is  it  me or  is this storm  more south   now   and  its now on the same track  as  st jude  last  year

    Thats just one perturbation and in the minority track wise. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Eshaness, Shetland Islands
  • Weather Preferences: Cool and Stormy
  • Location: Eshaness, Shetland Islands

    Another windy day for Shetland then! Repeat of Saturday then.

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    Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex

    St Jude = Officially the most overhyped storm in history, the storms in October 2000 and 2002 where both significantly stronger and longer lasting. A wind event that only lasts about 40 minutes can't even be warranted a Storm in my opinion, it was a freak squall nothing more!

    Yes, the St Jude storm was vicious in the south-east but only for about an hour. It was enough to cause a lot of trouble but that was mostly due to trees still being in leaf. The storm on 23/12/13 was more notable in terms of wind because it lasted longer but there was less tree-based trouble.

     

    I wasn't following the models at the time of those storms. How does the coming storm compare to the St Jude and 23/12/13 storms based on the models?

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-super-Mare
  • Weather Preferences: Windy, rumbly, flashy or snowy.
  • Location: Weston-super-Mare

    Met office rain warning for South West of UK Wednesday into Thursday.

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&regionName=sw&fcTime=1421193600

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    Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, high winds, thunder, snow
  • Location: Upminster, Essex

    Yes, the St Jude storm was vicious in the south-east but only for about an hour. It was enough to cause a lot of trouble but that was mostly due to trees still being in leaf. The storm on 23/12/13 was more notable in terms of wind because it lasted longer but there was less tree-based trouble.

     

    I wasn't following the models at the time of those storms. How does the coming storm compare to the St Jude and 23/12/13 storms based on the models?

    Based on the models I'd say quite similar to the 23rd December 13 storm but stronger then St' Jude when MetO gust predictions started downgrading just hours before it hit. The highest gusts we got in St' Jude was only around 55-65mph and didn't last long so hardly the 80-90mph storm of the century they where hyping it up to be!

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    Posted
  • Location: iow england
  • Location: iow england

    With the wind gusts the met office charts are showing I think its just a matter of time now till early warnings are issued for the south

     

    Untitled1.pngUntitled2.pngUntitled3.pngUntitled4.pngUntitled5.png

     

    Gusts peaking just over 70mph for Brighton and Dover gusts also exceed 70mph for a time in the south west

    Maybe 100mph gust for the needles ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Blandford, Dorset 102m\334ft ASL
  • Location: Blandford, Dorset 102m\334ft ASL

    Really tired of the Met Office bashing ref the non issuing of a red warning.

    you have all got access to the matrix and all the information on how they issue warnings, go tske a read and maybe you will understand a bit more.

    its all down to impact, timings and population of said area. The area is prone to this type of weather and therefore are resilient towards it, the concerned area is sparsely populated, it happened at night when most would be at home tucked up in bed and not when hundreds were trying to commute to work.

    Amber covers structural damage, utility disruption and travel disruption so no more than an amber wss justified period.

    If red warnings are issued willy nilly then what happens when the next stronger storm approches? It becomes difficult for the Met to quantify the seriousness if red warnings are issued for every disruptive event.

    Wednesday's storm will also get an amber warning although weaker than last weeks storm in the north but thats because it will impact more densely populated areas and parts of the country less resilient to strong winds.

    Hope that helps.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Can we not go down the route of moaning because a storm didn't deliver in your back yard? I mentioned St Jude as a reference point to compare here, because it WAS potent, regular 80mph gusts on the coast, almost 100mph on exposed points.

    Let's draw a line there. The MO have been awesome with their wind warnings over the last few years!

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Wind warning out as expected covers all parts of England, Wales and western parts of Northern Ireland currently until the exact track becomes clearer

     

    Issued at: 1152 on Sun 11 Jan 2015

    Valid from: 1500 on Wed 14 Jan 2015

    Valid to: 0600 on Thu 15 Jan 2015

     

    A deepening area of low pressure is expected to track across the UK during Wednesday and into Thursday. To the south of this system, gales or severe gales are expected to develop. Wind gusts of 50-60 mph are likely quite widely through the warning area, whilst gusts of 75 mph are likely around southern and western coasts and over exposed hills. The public should be aware of the risk of localised disruption to transport and possibly power supplies.

     

    Chief Forecaster's assessment

     

    Another Atlantic low pressure system is expected to deepen significantly as it tracks towards the UK. Unlike its predecessors, this system looks like taking a more southerly track, with the greatest risk of gales or severe gales being across Wales. England and parts of Northern Ireland. The strongest winds will be in southern and western exposure, where severe gales are likely. As well as the very strong winds, a band of squally rain is also likely to push southeast across England and Wales through the period. The exact track of this system is still open to some uncertainty, and it is likely that this warning will be reviewed in the coming days to adjust the areas most at risk and also likely impact.

     

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1420934400&regionName=uk

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, high winds, thunder, snow
  • Location: Upminster, Essex

    I thought they might issue their first warnings at Noon today, good call.

    Can we not go down the route of moaning because a storm didn't deliver in your back yard? I mentioned St Jude as a reference point to compare here, because it WAS potent, regular 80mph gusts on the coast, almost 100mph on exposed points.

    Let's draw a line there. The MO have been awesome with their wind warnings over the last few years!

    But they forecast 80mph for inland areas for St' Jude and it never materialized, just saying like!  ;-)

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    Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

    I thought they might issue their first warnings at Noon today, good call.

    But they forecast 80mph for inland areas for St' Jude and it never materialized, just saying like!  ;-)

    looking interesting  for us  70-80  mph  should  be  fun  on wednesday!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF

    Please bear in mind the highest windspeed recorded at Stornoway was highest official recording and taken in relative sheltered area near Airport.

    Many weather stations were destroyed by this storm. Some unofficial stations recorded over 130mph gust.

    The houses are built a little differently than down south

    For instance, under tiles they have felt and under that wood panelling. So yes places like Isle of Lewis is used to some severe weather and fairly prepared for it. This storm damaged 2/3 of houses on Lewis. My family (Parents)  had 30% of roof ripped off and their neighbours had worse with windows ect blown through. This was a very violent storm and even the resilient homes of this area had a lot of damage. 

    There is also the problem of repairs ( With rain water now coming through the ceiling and any further storms now causing further damage) There are limited roofers and builders on an Island like Lewis. There is  the need of ferry to bring supplies, not just food but building supplies and slates etc. 

    I think maybe this would have been a location where red warning could have been issued based on likelihood and effect. However due to resilience of the properties and people and lower population this may be why it remained at Amber. 

    Edited by pyrotech
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    Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

    just a snippet on the st Jude storm ,it had potential ,caused trouble across some southern and london area .but one of those occasions that crops up in meteorology ,its predicted path about 12/18hrs before had the low crossing uk slightly further north ,it did not develope so quickly .indeed i went outside during the night and the low crossed fairly close to my area with lovely clear star lit skies ,but this low DID cause damage ,further s/east ,this low midweek this week will cause many a head ache for the Met office and expect horror headlines in the press in the run up ,and i also expect some surprises as we get low 850 mb temp after the low exits ,interesting times for us storm lovers , :drinks:

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