Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Atlantic Storm 14th - 15th January


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 904
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

With a combination of a weather bomb & sting jet overnight, I hope it doesn't cause to much damage IMBY    I'm sorry I just couldn't resist 

Just like what I done with the storm last week I've made up a map showing the top wind speeds according to the Met Office on their Weather Map to give a quick and easy view on the wind speeds,  

Sod the storm, it's the imminent Ice Age I'm concerned about!      

Posted Images

Even though the centre of the storm looks like passing over the north giving storm force winds potentially, there could be a period of gales/severe gales sweeping much of the UK,

 

Mean wind speeds in KM/H. 

post-9615-0-00311000-1420924204_thumb.gipost-9615-0-58854700-1420924210_thumb.gipost-9615-0-11547000-1420924218_thumb.gi

Edited by Liam J
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the GFS upgraded parallel has lost the plot. Just look wrong.  Okay overall everything looks downgraded looking at the other runs.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Sometimes misleading when viewing the ECM charts available as they are 24hrs apart. The crucial time is between 96-120hrs. The approaching depression is 965mb then 24 hours later it's 955mb which would suggest that it's still deepening as it crosses the UK, how deep we cannot see, perhaps 950mb? 

 

This is the ECM at 108 hours.

 

oYqHVJt.jpg

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

NMM12 for midweek, two periods of wind to look out for. severe southerly gales sweeping eastwards before the centre of the storm moves in with a second swathe. 

post-9615-0-83661100-1420925169_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-40565500-1420925177_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-91197300-1420925184_thumb.pn

 


This is the ECM at 108 hours.

 

oYqHVJt.jpg

Thank you, very windy for Ireland & S Scotland southwards.

Edited by Liam J
Link to post
Share on other sites

mickeyb44 don't put your camera away just yet

 

 

Exeter have modified GM to ensemble consensus (further north), albeit strongest winds remain as previous signal (W/NW/SW/S England; gusts widely to 50kts; stronger in exposure of course but not akin to recent Scottish storm).

From Fergie over on MOD thread

Edited by Sussex Jules
Link to post
Share on other sites

mickeyb44 don't put your camera away just yet

 

From Fergie over on MOD thread

Gusts to 50kts = 58mph so they are deffo not going with anything as intense as the GFS evolution. Wonder if the GFS will downgrade in coming days? We shall see...

Edited by Liam J
Link to post
Share on other sites

Gusts to 50kts = 58mph so they are deffo not going with anything as intense as the GFS evolution. Wonder if the GFS will downgrade in coming days? We shall see...

Indeed Liam, Fax will be interesting tonight, he has also edited his post to read "W/NW/SW/S England"

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

The increased development of the preceding short-wave may have taken some energy from the development of the second wave. 

 

Be interesting to see how the first short-wave is modelled in the coming days, only 72hrs, but we could see it quickly being ramped up by the models in the next few runs, or just disregarded.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I think we can forget about a sub-940mb super-storm at this stage, but confidence is increasing in a more common, but still potent, winter storm with the potential for severe gales and damaging gusts in places. It will take a couple more days to nail down the details of where and exactly how strong.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...