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Atlantic Storm 14th - 15th January


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John Hammond had an extended weather forecast on BBC news and he went up to cover the storm next week and it was tracking to the NW of Ireland - Concern must be growing for this system for it to be now covered in TV broadcasts. 

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With a combination of a weather bomb & sting jet overnight, I hope it doesn't cause to much damage IMBY    I'm sorry I just couldn't resist 

Just like what I done with the storm last week I've made up a map showing the top wind speeds according to the Met Office on their Weather Map to give a quick and easy view on the wind speeds,  

Sod the storm, it's the imminent Ice Age I'm concerned about!      

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Although the gfs is to be congratulated at nailing the mid week storm early doors,my money would be on the ukmo solution (further south and less intense)history tells us the gfs tend to overcook these storms,so expect them to fall into line with the ukmo 120hrs chart in the coming days.( a dangerous storm for southern england,less severe further north).

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The UKMO is further south and less intense, wouldn't call it a dangerous storm though, but the GFS models would class as dangerous but as you say they are likely over doing it. ECM next... The best model :)

Edited by Liam J
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The UKMO is further south and less intense, wouldn't call it a dangerous storm though, but the GFS models would class as dangerous but as you say they are likely over doing it. ECM next... The best model :)

 

It's interesting though, it's deepens 25mb in 24 hours as it crosses the UK (Bombogenesis) and it's usually during that intense deepening phase that lows can produce their strongest winds. The GFS/GFS(P) on the other hand have already reached the mature phase as their lows approach the UK.

 

The UKMO could be deceptively nasty!

Edited by radiohead
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Some more updates,

 

12z NAVGEM takes the exact same route as the UKMO and GME.

 

post-6686-0-53222500-1420908624_thumb.pn

 

12z JMA only goes up to 84 hours at the moment the rest of the run comes out later but up to then its also going with the UKMO, GME and NAVGEM a Southerly route.

 

post-6686-0-82790300-1420908808_thumb.gi

 

Next the ECM will be out later on.

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What is likely impact from Mondays low?

i think that been  over looked and people are more about Wednesday storm  which looks  like a proper beast   and its coming when ever one on the move!!!

Wow some shocking ensembles/models just want to blow up the uk.

 

One to watch for sure

 

gens-2-1-108_qjd3.png

wait for the red warnings  to come!!!

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The UKMO is further south and less intense, wouldn't call it a dangerous storm though, but the GFS models would class as dangerous but as you say they are likely over doing it. ECM next... The best model :)

I think the ukmo solution would generate inland gusts of 70mph which is unusual,as has already been said, its a rapidly deepning feature as it runs across Northern England which promotes some very volotile conditions to the South of it.The Gfs solutions fill the storm as it leaves our shores,a squeeze of extreme winds for Northern England here ( mounting evidence tonight that this is less likely)
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Have we ever had 930mb low cross the northern UK? Of course that ensemble is far too extreme, although a potentially nasty storm seems likely. Will be interesting to see if the models trend the low further north, with the bulk of strong winds across Northern England and Southern Scotland. 

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Indeed ECM much closer to the GFS on a more Northern track.So GFS and ECM in one camp,UKMO and some of the lesser models in the more southern route camp.Often the middle ground is how things end up,so drop the gfs/ecm south a little and move the ukmo solution a little north.Depth wise perhaps a 960 system...?

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Wednesday and Thursday both looking rather windy for most of the UK with see some gales going to be another couple of days before we can pinpoint the exact track for the areas which will get the strongest winds

 

ECU1-96.GIF?10-0ECU1-120.GIF?10-0

 

The low looks like tracking across Scotland before moving towards Norway. With temperatures in the USA slowly recovering next week that should help the jet to slow down thus stopping these deep lows once the once around mid week clears away

Edited by Summer Sun
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Here's the 12am Thursday wind chart from the 12z ECM it keeps the low exactly where it was on the 00z run from last night but this time its a bit weaker. So the ECM agree's with the GFS on the track of the storm.

 

post-6686-0-26212900-1420918101_thumb.pn

Edited by weathermaster
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Yes, 12Z ECM and GFS are in roughly the same position by 108 hours. The main difference is that the GFS is about 15mb deeper than the ECM. Though the ECM is overall not as intense as the GFS, it does feature a less symmetrical low with isobars squeezed pretty close in some areas which would give quite strong winds.

 

Hopefully we get a better agreement on the intensity after the 0Z runs in the morning.

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Sometimes misleading when viewing the ECM charts available as they are 24hrs apart. The crucial time is between 96-120hrs. The approaching depression is 965mb then 24 hours later it's 955mb which would suggest that it's still deepening as it crosses the UK, how deep we cannot see, perhaps 950mb? 

Edited by Liam J
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