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Atlantic Storm 14th - 15th January


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With a combination of a weather bomb & sting jet overnight, I hope it doesn't cause to much damage IMBY    I'm sorry I just couldn't resist 

Just like what I done with the storm last week I've made up a map showing the top wind speeds according to the Met Office on their Weather Map to give a quick and easy view on the wind speeds,  

Sod the storm, it's the imminent Ice Age I'm concerned about!      

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Yeah I remember you, welcome back Adam (Knightrider) :)

 

Windy enough atm with gusts hitting 70mph, very rough!

Thanks, looks like some interesting weather ahead. Just had a crazy squalline go through! Wednesday/Thursday's potential storm is 1 to keep a close eye on for sure.

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Thanks, looks like some interesting weather ahead. Just had a crazy squalline go through! Wednesday/Thursday's potential storm is 1 to keep a close eye on for sure.

Yes indeed some very interesting weather potentially! I expect it'll be Mon/Tue before we'll know the most likely track & depth of the storm, thats if the models don't back away from the idea. 

 

Also Monday morning is looking very windy for some.

 

post-9615-0-23578600-1420887874_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-81206900-1420887878_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-18691100-1420887886_thumb.pn

 

A bit of variation on the GEFS and some very intense looking lows wed/thur.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=114

Edited by Liam J
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The models are all still undecided on the track of this storm at the moment.

 

The ECM 00z looks similar to the old GFS model from its earlier 00z run with a low near the North West of Ireland bringing severe gales into Ireland, Scotland and Northern England.

 

post-6686-0-74254900-1420887765_thumb.pn

 

Currently the new GFS model on its 06z run shows this as well along with the UKMO. So you could say we have the three main models putting the low in the same area. The other weather models seem to show it go further South and be a bit weaker but still capable of bringing very windy weather. The 06z GFS ensembles have just come out most of them put the low to the North West of Ireland as well.

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Thanks, looks like some interesting weather ahead. Just had a crazy squalline go through! Wednesday/Thursday's potential storm is 1 to keep a close eye on for sure.

 

Just had the squall line through here.  Torrential rain and very strong winds (I would guess in the 50-60mph range), quite impressive although shortlived!

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Wednesday could see a very strong storm across central England. All three models are showing this feature so it's a case of nailing the track down. If it comes off as per gfs we could get red warnings.

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Wednesday could see a very strong storm across central England. All three models are showing this feature so it's a case of nailing the track down. If it comes off as per gfs we could get red warnings.

 

Yes, I think you're right.  Like it or not, the red warnings are going to be far more likely when densely populated areas are being affected, which next weeks storm looks likely to do.  Mind you, I believe that Northern Scotland should absolutely have had a red warning yesterday, if you're not going to 'go red' when there's 100mph+ winds, when would you???

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Yes indeed some very interesting weather potentially! I expect it'll be Mon/Tue before we'll know the most likely track & depth of the storm, thats if the models don't back away from the idea. 

 

Also Monday morning is looking very windy for some.

 

attachicon.gifgfs172.pngattachicon.gifgfs173.pngattachicon.gifgfs174.png

 

A bit of variation on the GEFS and some very intense looking lows wed/thur.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=114

Pick of the bunch for me was Member no 5, 90 to 100mph gusts easy..... Can't even make out where the UK is, looking at this chart!

 

gens-5-1-126.png

 

EDIT..........At least we may have some horIzontal SNOW windy.gif

 

gens-5-2-120_udb4.png

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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Pick of the bunch for me was Member no 5, 90 to 100mph gusts easy..... Can't even make out where the UK is looking at this chart!

 

gens-5-1-126.png

 

I like my severe weather, but I really hope this significantly downgrades.  If the storm verifies as shown above and hits during a busy time of day, there could be some serious consequences!

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Regards next weeks possible midweek storm ,just spoken with my friend from the met and the met office seem to think that next weeks low will be a weaker feature eventually and also tracking to the north of the uk ,pressure over the azores area now expected to rise by several or more Mb come midweek .but caution still required as adjustments at this range could be critical IFF this system does track further south .very ironic that my Met friend came home to an old fence post completely cracked this morning ,one further bit of news ,many parts of uk likely to see some snow fall chances after next weeks low ,more exclusively to hight, and latest guidance on longer range outlook high pressure setting up to our east /s east ,but detail at this range very mixed . :drinks:

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Pick of the bunch for me was Member no 5, 90 to 100mph gusts easy..... Can't even make out where the UK is, looking at this chart!

 

gens-5-1-126.png

 

EDIT..........At least we may have some horIzontal SNOW windy.gif

 

gens-5-2-120_udb4.png

A scary prospect IF that was to come off.

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Looking at the wind gusts GFS P is showing I wouldn't be surprised if the met issue early warnings tomorrow given that large parts of England and Wales could be in the firing line

 

ukgust.pngukgust.pngukgust.pngukgust.pngukgust.png

 

 

Some exceptionally strong wind gusts for some highly populated areas, could even warrant a red warning for some parts

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Blimey, some of these charts really are starting to look very nasty indeed.

Question is, is this storm now well enough inside the reliable timeframe or not quite yet, as in possible huge downgrades ?

I think it is likely we will get a severe storm - the track will determine who will get the worst of the winds, but generally it'll be bad throughout the UK - the thing is this storm has been showing for over a week on the GFS P and little has changed it's remarkable, deserves some credit for taking 'lead'. Unlike previous storms the peak will be during daytime, when people are out and about, this is much more troubling.

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I think it is likely we will get a severe storm - the track will determine who will get the worst of the winds, but generally it'll be bad throughout the UK - the thing is this storm has been showing for over a week on the GFS P and little has changed it's remarkable, deserves some credit for taking 'lead'. Unlike previous storms the peak will be during daytime, when people are out and about, this is much more troubling.

need  i say   more!!!

post-4629-0-73253900-1420896122_thumb.pn

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The potential storm for midweek is more likely to downgrade than not, but this is not to say that it will downgrade and even if it downgrades it could still be a beast. Naturally as a weather event gets closer the probability of it happening increases, this one is 4 days out which is not that far away on the face of it but is a long time in forecasting storm systems. Some of the charts for this storm look quite scary and winds of 80-90mph (as is being shown on some perturbations) across highly populated areas would be headline news and would cause a lot of damage and disruption. 

 

Regarding warnings, I would expect that the Met Office will issue warnings for this if it is still showing by this time tomorrow as we are then into the 72 hour timeframe but red warnings, indicating "take action" will only be issued when there is a high likelihood of high impacts, and so unlikely to be issued more than a few hours before an event. 

 

Of interest also is the snow likely to occur during the coming week. It is mostly in the north and on high ground but the risk is there for more widespread snow with stormy conditions coupled with cold air being drawn into the storms at times.

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Can someone tell me, where can I view ukmo wind gust speed ?

Or is that not available to the public ?

 

You can see predicted wind gusts here by selected the wind gust option.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/map/#?map=GustSpeed&zoom=5&lon=-4.00&lat=55.01&fcTime=1420858800

 

Edit: actually I have already selected in this link :)

Edited by Supacell
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Comparing the NMM 12 with the GFS OP, they seem in cahoots with each other..

The GFS-P looks to be the extreme solution..

 

 

The NMM processes GFS data at higher resolution, so invariably the NMM will look like the GFS output, but more detailed. :) If the GFS changes on the next run, so will the NMM etc.

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The NMM processes GFS data at higher resolution, so invariably the NMM will look like the GFS output, but more detailed. :) If the GFS changes on the next run, so will the NMM etc.

Not that often. I've seen them worlds apart at very short time frames. Thursday mornings rain was a non-event on the NMM the day before, the GFS painted a different picture.

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