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Atlantic Storm 14th - 15th January


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With a combination of a weather bomb & sting jet overnight, I hope it doesn't cause to much damage IMBY    I'm sorry I just couldn't resist 

Just like what I done with the storm last week I've made up a map showing the top wind speeds according to the Met Office on their Weather Map to give a quick and easy view on the wind speeds,  

Sod the storm, it's the imminent Ice Age I'm concerned about!      

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Got to say the GFS has been spot on regarding the intensity of this low pressure system whilstthe ECM has forecasted a much shallower feature until more nearer the time. The UKMO has not been too bad either mind, not as deep as the GFS though. 

 

I think tomorrow morning will see the strongest winds from this system crossing Northern Ireland/SW Scotland/NW England which then later transfer to Southern Scotland and North East England but not to the same intensity and then it be Northern Scotland turn although again not to the same intensity as gusts that could be recorded across Northern Ireland, SW Scotland and NW England. No doubt the band of showers that is forecast will contain the strongest gusts during tomorrow morning. 

 

I would not rule out a 80mph gust either, especially in a coastal location. 

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rain and wind shadow showing it's hand here.. I did take a walk down to the beach on the estuary, the wind is about sustained 28-31mph down there, but not too strong considering the open aspect. Here in the shelter at the top of the hill (shelter provided by trees and buildings) it is not windy at all, slight breeze.. but when the wind changes direction to SW-W we will get the full impact.

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Blowing a gale here, sustained into the 40's mph gusts around 60 mph. At least I'll get some sleep when the lull comes towards midnight, then the strongest winds come in around the southern part of the storm centre tomorrow morning onwards. 

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20:00 Surface Pressure Plot

 

post-1600-0-47225800-1421266373_thumb.gi

 

 

Looks even more impressive on the Euro! A strong Atlantic storm on our shores.

 

post-1600-0-14262800-1421266516_thumb.gi

 

 

One area to watch tonight is the back-edge squall-line sweeping Wales and England. Some violent and likely damaging convective gusts will be associated with this.

 

Mammatus

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