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Atlantic Storm 14th - 15th January


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With a combination of a weather bomb & sting jet overnight, I hope it doesn't cause to much damage IMBY    I'm sorry I just couldn't resist 

Just like what I done with the storm last week I've made up a map showing the top wind speeds according to the Met Office on their Weather Map to give a quick and easy view on the wind speeds,  

Sod the storm, it's the imminent Ice Age I'm concerned about!      

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Yep, let's see in the morning, I'll be happy to be the object of fun tomorrow. We'll call it my Michael Fish moment. I have the same initials as it is.

 

@Twistergirl81 - I hope it not only comes off but lands on my knackered old conservatory and decking so I can get both replaced on my insurance.

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I'm in the opposite camp. The BBC and the MO would have expressed more caution if it was felt the eventual outcome of this storm could have been worse than forecast. And before anyone throws 1987 in my face, it's exactly that storm that ensures more cautious forecasting these days.

 

My prediction is that this thread will be full of disappointed people in the morning, aside from a few blown over trees in exposed areas and a couple of villages without power this will turn out to be non-event.

 

Sorry, but I feel I have to balance out the hopecasting that goes on around these parts.

 

so do you feel this prediction is wrong?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1421193600&regionName=sw

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I must admit that I find the matrix there a bit strange. It's still biased towards low probability / high impact. Surely the probability must be fairly high now? (notwithstanding impact effects)

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No.

 

I trust them with those gust speeds, they are the experts after all. I was merely saying that there seemed to be a growing concensus on here that it could be a storm to remember. What's predicted by the MO at the moment will not be a major historical event, just a bad winter storm.

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No.

 

I trust them with those gust speeds, they are the experts after all. I was merely saying that there seemed to be a growing concensus on here that it could be a storm to remember. What's predicted by the MO at the moment will not be a major historical event, just a bad winter storm.

I've noticed whenever significant storms are approaching that the Met Office gust predictions tend to downgrade in the 12 hours or so leading up to it, only yesterday evening it was predicting 55-65mph gusts as far inland as the London suburbs now it's only saying around 45mph, I'm not sure whether these latest readings can be entirely trusted. I remember 12 hours before St' Jude hit it said gusts for my location would struggle to reach 40mph we ended up getting a short spell of 60 to 70mph as the Sting Jet passed over!

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Main feature here tonight will be the rain most likely. Local forecast doesn't have any outstanding gusts tonight. Tomorrow afternoon a different  story with gusts up to 59mph during the afternoon.

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I've noticed whenever significant storms are approaching that the Met Office gust predictions tend to downgrade in the 12 hours or so leading up to it, only yesterday evening it was predicting 55-65mph gusts as far inland as the London suburbs now it's only saying around 45mph, I'm not sure whether these latest readings can be entirely trusted. I remember 12 hours before St' Jude hit it said gusts for my location would struggle to reach 40mph we ended up getting a short spell of 60 to 70mph as the Sting Jet passed over!

Maybe Charlie Brooker's theory of using chaos as a means of controlling the population is spot on and now being rolled out to all Government organisations.

 

Tell them a bad storm is coming, downgrade it, downgrade it some more and when it turns out bad say that it went exactly as forecast. The public are left so bewildered that they don't know what to believe or who to trust.

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Well the BBC London lunchtime forecast was still forecasting 60mph inland gusts so very confused now considering the Met Office gust predictor is going for 45-50mph at best!

Don't take the MO prediction as gospel. They're normally, I find anyway, at least 5-10mph under the actual outcome.

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