Atlantic Storm 14th - 15th January

[TwisterGirl81]

The storm last week had gusts of 70mph here at Emley Moor weather station.Here are the most recent

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/city?WMO=03346&TIME=std&R=0&LEVEL=140&LAND=__&ART=wind&WETTER=__&&TYP=windspitzen

I am sure there will be a station nearby to you.

 

Thankyou Winter, I can't seem to find out how to look for a close weather station in the southwest that's either in Exeter or nearby though? 

[Marcula]

Thankyou Winter, I can't seem to find out how to look for a close weather station in the southwest that's either in Exeter or nearby though? 

Try - http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/03839.html - and then select 'Change Station' at the top of the page, just under the location. Should bring up a local list.

[jello]

Irelands Met Eireann has just upgraded their warning from amber to red for much of Ireland for gusts in excess of 90mph/140km/h.   I think its gona be a wild night.   I think its likely the metoffice will upgrade their own warnings at some point, they would need to. 

Edited January 14, 2015 by jello

[TonyH]

Thankyou Winter, I can't seem to find out how to look for a close weather station in the southwest that's either in Exeter or nearby though?

Exeter has a met office weather station

[bma79]

Irelands Met Eireann has just upgraded their warning from amber to red for much of Ireland for gusts in excess of 90mph/140km/h.   I think its gona be a wild night.   I think its likely the metoffice will upgrade their own warnings at some point, they would need to. 

 

Worth noting the Red Alert is only for coastal and mountain areas of Donegal, Sligo, Mayo, Galway, Clare, Limerick and Kerry

[Iceaxecrampon]

If 80mph gusts dont warrant an amber , i dont know what does! 

Ever been hit by something at 80mph?

 

Not exactly been hit  - but picked up and moved a few times - the most memorable was in the Newlands Hause area NW Lake District.

 

Airborne and thrown about 10 ft.

 

Ian

[Iceaxecrampon]

XC Weather tomorrow am

 

 

Safely say wont be any Irish Sea sailings.

 

Ian

[johnholmes]

pressure falls in excess of 10mb per 3 h already showing in nw Ireland

chart to follow the 'approximate' path of the low, it is a computer model and does stary at times, the only real fix is the 6 hours fax chart.

links below

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?date=2015011414〈=en&area=eur&size=large

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm

At 12z this shoed it approximately 55N 20W 956mb

the link below gives some of the buoy data

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/United_Kingdom.shtml

enjoy tracking the storm

sadly only the northern one seems to be reporting

 

one or two ships here but not much near enough

http://www.oceanweather.com/data/

Edited January 14, 2015 by johnholmes

[alanwh]

The storm last week had gusts of 70mph here at Emley Moor weather station.Here are the most recent

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/city?WMO=03346&TIME=std&R=0&LEVEL=140&LAND=__&ART=wind&WETTER=__&&TYP=windspitzen

I am sure there will be a station nearby to you.

That's Just across the valley from our house, I read they had 80MPH + at Bradfield, the next valley to the east. I wondr what tonight will bring

[daveinSB]

Just watched the BBC forecast and they still aren't making much of any wind risk inland, making more of the rain risk than the wind, and then mentioning wind that might bring down debris from trees in the west, and then skipping 6 hours to mention the wind risk in the South East. Now I fully appreciate that wind speeds inland will be significantly lower, but I'm finding this omission quite odd given the charts!

[Kiwi]

pressure falls in excess of 10mb per 3 h already showing in nw Ireland

chart to follow the 'approximate' path of the low, it is a computer model and does stary at times, the only real fix is the 6 hours fax chart.

links below

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?date=2015011414〈=en&area=eur&size=large

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm

At 12z this shoed it approximately 55N 20W 956mb

the link below gives some of the buoy data

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/United_Kingdom.shtml

enjoy tracking the storm

sadly only the northern one seems to be reporting

 

one or two ships here but not much near enough

http://www.oceanweather.com/data/

 M4 buoy reported 9mb fall in 2hr period 1300 to 1500 ...down to 972mb at 1500

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-observations/#?tab=last24hoursMarine&marineLocId=162093&fcTime=1421107200

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Like Surrey posted yesterday, the 4KM NMM shows what looks to be a squall line and the back of the cold front. The 3KM one doesn't show, strangely.

Rain rate snapshot:

viewimage (16).png

 

IF this squall comes to frutation I really do think 80+MPH could be reached inland with 90MPH+ (South east)

 

Only because I been looking at the convective gust charts and they show 90knots for a few hours in the early morning   

[TwisterGirl81]

I feel like this storm will be stronger than most are expecting in the south, coasts especially....

 

If you go on the following link you will see that the wind has already picked up in the southwest irish coastal area's and the wind gusts are higher than were forecast for this time....

 

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

 

It's just a hunch but anyone looking at predicted gust amounts on the met office website could be lulled into a false sense of security, the winds are not very severe for southern coasts that I can see

Edited January 14, 2015 by TwisterGirl81

[KyleHenry]

I feel like this storm will be stronger than most are expecting in the south, coasts especially....

If you go on the following link you will see that the wind has already picked up in the southwest irish coastal area's and the wind gusts are higher than were forecast for this time....

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

It's just a hunch but anyone looking at predicted gust amounts on the met office website could be lulled into a false sense of security, the winds are not any severe for southern coasts that I can see

You could be right all depending on cyclogenesis, possibilities of dropping below 945 mb

Unsure how their data is collected or on how often updated

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-22.18,63.84,593

As you can see full on Arctic feed from North and warm air seclusion all the way from Caribbean.

Edited January 14, 2015 by KyleHenry

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I feel like this storm will be stronger than most are expecting in the south, coasts especially....

 

If you go on the following link you will see that the wind has already picked up in the southwest irish coastal area's and the wind gusts are higher than were forecast for this time....

 

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

 

It's just a hunch but anyone looking at predicted gust amounts on the met office website could be lulled into a false sense of security, the winds are not any severe for southern coasts that I can see

 

Totally agree... Just feels "right" this one..   

[Wivenswold]

I'm in the opposite camp. The BBC and the MO would have expressed more caution if it was felt the eventual outcome of this storm could have been worse than forecast. And before anyone throws 1987 in my face, it's exactly that storm that ensures more cautious forecasting these days.

 

My prediction is that this thread will be full of disappointed people in the morning, aside from a few blown over trees in exposed areas and a couple of villages without power this will turn out to be non-event.

 

Sorry, but I feel I have to balance out the hopecasting that goes on around these parts.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I'm in the opposite camp. The BBC and the MO would have expressed more caution if it was felt the eventual outcome of this storm could have been worse than forecast. And before anyone throws 1987 in my face, it's exactly that storm that ensures more cautious forecasting these days.

 

My prediction is that this thread will be full of disappointed people in the morning, aside from a few blown over trees in exposed areas and a couple of villages without power this will turn out to be non-event.

 

Sorry, but I feel I have to balance out the hopecasting that goes on around these parts.

 

Wouldn't so much call it "hopecasting" as actually living in the house I do with slipped tiles already from last years storm and had to have the chimney repaired I want it to be as less windy as possible... The cost of just putting a few tiles back in place is extortionate.. 

 

You may be right and Met office wrong I could be barking mad.. This is the beauty of sites like this and the weather.. The opinion you give is different to everyone.. But the information we see is the same But at the end of the day mother nature is all our boss...

[TwisterGirl81]

I'm in the opposite camp. The BBC and the MO would have expressed more caution if it was felt the eventual outcome of this storm could have been worse than forecast. And before anyone throws 1987 in my face, it's exactly that storm that ensures more cautious forecasting these days.

 

My prediction is that this thread will be full of disappointed people in the morning, aside from a few blown over trees in exposed areas and a couple of villages without power this will turn out to be non-event.

 

Sorry, but I feel I have to balance out the hopecasting that goes on around these parts.

 

I hope your roof gets blown off for making that comment! LOL *Joke*  But wouldn't it be funny in a weird kind of way.

 

I understand where you're coming from and you are most likely correct but I think their will be big gusts when the squal line/cold front goes through over night.

[leedsnowfan]

I'm in the opposite camp. The BBC and the MO would have expressed more caution if it was felt the eventual outcome of this storm could have been worse than forecast. And before anyone throws 1987 in my face, it's exactly that storm that ensures more cautious forecasting these days.

 

My prediction is that this thread will be full of disappointed people in the morning, aside from a few blown over trees in exposed areas and a couple of villages without power this will turn out to be non-event.

 

Sorry, but I feel I have to balance out the hopecasting that goes on around these parts.

I know I sound boring....but I hope you are right!!

[Marcula]

Latest GFS suggests the low bottoms out before it makes landfall, so fills slightly as it crosses Scotland, and a sting jet hasn't been spoken about much, so 1987 comparisons are way off. I agree with Wivenswold - although varying between models, predicted gust speeds have fallen over the last few days for the Southern half of the UK in particular, and even the previously wild GFSP has backed off from its 150kph+ predictions in the Irish sea. It'll be lively, certainly, especially as the cold front moves through, but not horrendous.

[vladthemert]

culdrose getting 47 Mph gust looking XCW

 

Ps I would hope wivenswold right too with his forecast

Edited January 14, 2015 by vladthemert

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

People over hype every Atlantic storm that heads this way, but very rarely does it turn out to be as bad.

Eventually one day though the "hypers" will be right, but more law of averages rather than expert knowledge. Personally though I do always hope it is worse than forecasted.

Edited January 14, 2015 by No Balls Like Snow Balls

[Liam J]

Wind picking up considerably over S & W Ireland now. Very wet here with a strengthening wind.

[BurntFishTrousers]

Sting Jet formed and heading to Northern Ireland, SW Scotland

 

http://www.sat24.com/en/eu

[Steve C]

People over hype every Atlantic storm that heads this way, but very rarely does it turn out to be as bad.

Eventually one day though the "hypers" will be right, but more law of averages rather than expert knowledge. Personally though I do always hope it is worse than forcasted.

 

Yes, very rarely though. I don't think this one will live long in the memory, at least in the South, although the wind will wake a few up here tonight. I'd think there'd be more hassle for those in the North, close to / south of where the low pressure tracks tomorrow.