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Atlantic Storm 14th - 15th January


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With a combination of a weather bomb & sting jet overnight, I hope it doesn't cause to much damage IMBY    I'm sorry I just couldn't resist 

Just like what I done with the storm last week I've made up a map showing the top wind speeds according to the Met Office on their Weather Map to give a quick and easy view on the wind speeds,  

Sod the storm, it's the imminent Ice Age I'm concerned about!      

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Met Office recently upgraded warnings for my area (Mansfield) to include all of Thursday. Also now saying strongest winds (28mph, gusts to double) for my area will be Thursday late afternoon. They do seem to be playing catch-up on this after, as I said yesterday, a shockingly inaccurate forecast on Sunday night for Monday. 

 

Also, as others have said, the BBC definitely seem to be playing the whole thing very low key.

Edited by Tim M
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It's raining here :(

Cold rain, maybe a little snow (sleet).

I doubt any decent snow will fall overnight though.

Is anyone to the West of England (e.g. Wales) or central England experiencing any decent snowfall?

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Is anyone to the West of England (e.g. Wales) or central England experiencing any decent snowfall?

 

The Netweather V6 radar shows all precipitation to the north and west of Birmingham is of snow, aside from on the coasts.

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Sorry for the IMBY post! The latest Meto update has added yet more mph onto the max gusts Thursday afternoon for Cumbria, 60-70mph inland and 75mph or so at the coast. I wonder what level of gust speeds would require an amber warning as these gusts will be hitting mid afternoon, a busy time so potential impacts are much higher plus the Met do at times underestimate wind speeds.... Already a step away from amber atm, poss an amber may be issued tomorrow for somewhere in the UK when likelihood increases and the biggest impacts can be pinned down.... Who knows! 

 

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Edited by Liam J
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Mean wind speeds in km/h, extremely windy on the southern flank of the storm 95-100km/h+ mean winds, first impacts will be felt over W&N Ireland then SW Scotland, across the Irish Sea into NW England. Well, really the first part of the storm will the very active cold front sweeping eastwards with severe southerly gales and heavy rainfall which in itself will likely cause some issues in places. 

 

post-9615-0-72414900-1421187118_thumb.gipost-9615-0-71327900-1421187124_thumb.gipost-9615-0-36334000-1421187131_thumb.gipost-9615-0-32314700-1421187141_thumb.gipost-9615-0-54406800-1421187147_thumb.gi

Edited by Liam J
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I've had a look at the forecast gusts for Weds night in Chelmsford, Essex on a few sites and models:

 

MetOffice - 53

WeatherPro app - 44

Metcheck - 61

WeatherOnline - 44

AccuWeather - 58

GFS (18z) - 60 to 64

NetWx-SR (12z) - 56 to 60

 

Of course it's not an exact science and things locally could be very different. What sort of wind gusts were being forecast for the south-east for St Jude (28/10/13) and the storm on 23/12/13?

 

(Sorry for the IMBYism but it's interesting to compare the forecast gusts regardless of location!)

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Never posted before. Apologies in advance for IMBYism. Any thoughts on what to expect down here on South coast? We live opposite the Isle of Wight, on a peninsula, in a pretty exposed location. Very bad memories of '87! We've got a lot of glass (it's a new house) and scaffolding up. Fascinated by storms, but actually a bit freaked out by this one. Is it downgrading? Intensifying? Max gusts on South Coast? How long will the severe gales last? Thanks in advance.

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Never posted before. Apologies in advance for IMBYism. Any thoughts on what to expect down here on South coast? We live opposite the Isle of Wight, on a peninsula, in a pretty exposed location. Very bad memories of '87! We've got a lot of glass (it's a new house) and scaffolding up. Fascinated by storms, but actually a bit freaked out by this one. Is it downgrading? Intensifying? Max gusts on South Coast? How long will the severe gales last? Thanks in advance.

 

Not expert bit newbie myself with this but you can check the charts on the main website Just use chart type locate UK wind gusts.  You will get a  general indication wind speeds predicted and rough time frame. Sorry cant help more.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

 

ps by the way welcome to the forum.

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Rumours there maybe a sting jet potential for NW EIRE and N Ireland, too early to say this will happen, something that will only be apparent as the tight gradient on the SW flank of this very deep low comes into contact with these ateas on Thursday morning. Though the signs are there at least. Would hazard a guess that these areas could see 90-100mph + gusts, so not for the faint hearted.

Also of concern are the wind gusts just ahead of the cold font sweeping through early Thurs morning, GFS shows 925mb winds of 75knts+ or 86mph+ in the SW, could easily descend to the surface.

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Edited by Nick F
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Thanks Nick F worrying if true.

 

Lightening wizard has convection gust some are up to 80 85 and even 90 kt.  If they come off would be very bad.

 

http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/Europe/ani.html?0,gfs_,_eur42.png,cape,mucape,icape,layer,lfc,mulfc,el,icon10,omega,pvort,pvort2,difadv,kili,spout,lapse,lapse2,the700,thetae,mixr,mtv,gusts,stp,srh,srhl,pw,hail

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Wow, you can really see the different systems forming on the infrared radar:

http://www.sat24.com/en/eu?ir=true

Sometimes the models don't show the beauty of the actual system formations. Stay safe and enjoy those on offer at T0.

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Edited by geordiekev
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I've had a look at the forecast gusts for Weds night in Chelmsford, Essex on a few sites and models:

 

MetOffice - 53

WeatherPro app - 44

Metcheck - 61

WeatherOnline - 44

AccuWeather - 58

GFS (18z) - 60 to 64

NetWx-SR (12z) - 56 to 60

 

Of course it's not an exact science and things locally could be very different.

What sort of wind gusts were being forecast for the south-east for St Jude (28/10/13) and the storm on 23/12/13?

 

(Sorry for the IMBYism but it's

interesting to compare the forecast gusts regardless of location!)

Met Office have downgraded the gusts by about 10mph where I am in the last 12 hours from 58 to 48mph but this happened before St Jude hit when originally they proposed 60mph and dropped them to only 40mph about 12 hours before it hit so I've learnt to take their forecasts with a pinch of salt, I personally find the GFS-P charts more or less spot on same for MetCheck who're going for widespread 60mph inland with 75-80mph on some exposed Western coasts.

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Well tonight will be the rain for us tomorrow afternoon is the action latest forecast showing 60mph as gusts. This mainly due to the us being sheltered from the south.

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Interesting.. Huge southward shift on the second wave of damaging winds... At less than 24 hours till arrival I was not expecting something this dramatic model change wise.. Another 50 -60 miles south and London gets a second battering from 50-60mph winds at peak times!!

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Well tonight will be the rain for us tomorrow afternoon is the action latest forecast showing 60mph as gusts. This mainly due to the us being sheltered from the south.

We certainly don't need any more rain around here.

The fields are already sodden and I don't imagine that's going to help in keeping the trees upright when they're hit by hefty gusts.

I can see there being a lot of disruption, especially on the railways come tomorrow morning.

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Interesting.. Huge southward shift on the second wave of damaging winds... At less than 24 hours till arrival I was not expecting something this dramatic model change wise.. Another 50 -60 miles south and London gets a second battering from 50-60mph winds at peak times!!

attachicon.gifScreenshot_2015-01-14-07-43-28.png

 

Yeah, Met Office has downgraded most of Yorkshire by 10mph for the initial wave (which is now relatively harmless by their forecast) and upgraded the second wave by about 10-15mph (meaning 60mph+ gusts for the Thursday rush hour). Interesting to see such a significant change so close to the event, shows how unpredictable this is.

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The ECM  page has wind gust impact as the banner offering: looking back through the previous time stamps, today's chart looks to have upped the severity potential for the Midlands.

 

80Huhao.png

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I dont understand why this isnt being "bigged up" by the papers?

 

Scotland gets a storm that they get most years and its a huge deal.. Potential damaging winds in large built up coastal areas ( and inland ) and we hear next to nothing..

 

To me, The latest models show some terrible weather for the south, south west and western parts. With Ireland, scotland and the north being hit fairly hard after. ( And potential for a double whammy for midlands and the west later too )

 

Somethings fishy..

Edited by Lynxus
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I dont understand why this isnt being "bigged up" by the papers?

 

Scotland gets a storm that they get most years and its a huge deal.. Potential damaging winds in large built up coastal areas ( and inland ) and we hear next to nothing..

 

To me, The latest models show some terrible weather for the south, south west and western parts. With Ireland, scotland and the north being hit fairly hard after. ( And potential for a double whammy for midlands and the west later too )

 

Somethings fishy..

 

Not sure, maybe it's a different perspective for us up North - for me, this is just a small storm, 50-70mph winds and some rain, with potential to some small damage too, I don't get the hype to be honest.

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