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Atlantic Storm 14th - 15th January


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Looking very potent now only 5 days away.  When first saw it 9 days from it hitting I just felt it will be blip error or it will shift away.

 

Yet the thing hardly moved or weakened in the runs.  Still time though.

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With a combination of a weather bomb & sting jet overnight, I hope it doesn't cause to much damage IMBY    I'm sorry I just couldn't resist 

Just like what I done with the storm last week I've made up a map showing the top wind speeds according to the Met Office on their Weather Map to give a quick and easy view on the wind speeds,  

Sod the storm, it's the imminent Ice Age I'm concerned about!      

Posted Images

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=16&ech=6&carte=&mode=0

 

the  first  one looks   bad   but the one  behind its looks scary     both saying 70-9o right  via  the middle  of the  country   wont  be surprised  to see  red  warning appearing  by  Monday

Edited by tinybill
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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=16&ech=6&carte=&mode=0

 

the  first  one looks   bad   but the one  behind its looks scary     both saying 70-9o right  via  the middle  of the  country   wont  be surprised  to see  red  warning appearing  by  Monday

There are many more eye opening ensembles than that one Bill!! http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=138

Edited by Liam J
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ECM 12z says no to a severe storm with 40mb higher central pressure, although it'll still be v windy. 

 

attachicon.gifecm97.gifattachicon.gifecm98.gif

 

The GEM, NAVGEM and JMA also not going for a severe storm they still show a low pressure system crossing over England and Wales bringing windy weather nothing severe though.

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The GEM, NAVGEM and JMA also not going for a severe storm they still show a low pressure system crossing over England and Wales bringing windy weather nothing severe though.

Could go either way atm, GFS & GFS(P) have been very bullish about this storm with good consistency run to run and also UKMO is on board. ECM is the best model for medium range forecasting as the stats prove, so before we get too excited/concerned the ECM will have to be showing the storm imo. I'll have a look at the EPS ensembles when the come out later, maybe they'll lend support to the GFS/UKMO idea - We'll see... 

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New GFS model has backed away from the severe storm it had on its 12z run and shows something very similar to the JMA and ECM. The Old GFS model has a deep low over Scotland giving Ireland, Wales and England some severe gale force winds.

Edited by weathermaster
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GFS (P) is around 30mb less deep for the 14/15th storm on the 18z, is this the start of the usual GFS super storm downgrades to be more in line with the other models? We'll see if this trend continues on the overnight runs. 

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Could go either way atm, GFS & GFS(P) have been very bullish about this storm with good consistency run to run and also UKMO is on board. ECM is the best model for medium range forecasting as the stats prove, so before we get too excited/concerned the ECM will have to be showing the storm imo. I'll have a look at the EPS ensembles when the come out later, maybe they'll lend support to the GFS/UKMO idea - We'll see... 

Storm has appeared on the ECM although less deep than the GFS(P) which has gone back to a 940mb depression crossing the UK. Some very nasty GEFS members also with the majority tracking the storm centre over Scotland with the strongest winds on the southern flank, 

 

post-9615-0-58160900-1420872622_thumb.gipost-9615-0-43277700-1420872630_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-49003100-1420873040_thumb.gipost-9615-0-31386000-1420873048_thumb.gi

 

A few tweets from Ryan Maue.

post-9615-0-27443900-1420874276_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-70157600-1420874281_thumb.pn

Edited by Liam J
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I think the GFSP is likely overdoing it, though it cannot be discounted as a possibility. My bet would be on something similar to the ECMWF solution. Looking at the ECMWF ENS this morning, I'd say that something even a little stronger than the current op run might be likely.

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Saw the beebs week ahead forecast last night and they didn't make much of any storms later next week yes they said it will remain windy but no word on any severe gales or anything

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/30756016

 

The UKMO has a 951mb low on the west coast of Scotland Wednesday night. There will be severe gales somewhere if that ends up there.

 

 

60fPWaq.jpg

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I suspect looking at the Fax charts that it will be south of the last 2 major systems, and as Liam suggests, detail, as with the other two, on track and depth, will not be clear for a day or two. I would be surprised though if it did not track further south than the other two.

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No London isn't forecast to get 100mph winds, we won't have a clear picture on this storm until some time next week, if it even comes off.

I certainly agree about the models not having a clear picture yet.

So far today we've seen projected paths of the strongest winds across both the borders and midlands whilst yesterday's were across Northern England.

As you say it will be early next week before the path and intensity is decided with any sort of accuracy and that is if it doesn't completely disappear from the models.

If it does occur though with the intensity and sort of paths being talked about then I'd imagine the warnings will be coming thick and fast.

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Yes John, looks like a tendency from the models that this one may track over Scotland rather than to the north of the mainland putting more of England & Wales in line for some very strong winds. 6z is 20mb shallower with the storm compared to the 00z. Expect some more chopping and changing over the next few days. The Met weren't 100% sure of the track of the last two storms even 24/48hrs out, so lots to keep an eye on. 

Edited by Liam J
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Is london going to see 100mph winds?

In a word no at least I very much doubt it but 70mph isn't out of the question judging by some of the charts. Its squalling up out there now, must be pushing 50, Hi everyone I'm new here. Well kind of not but I forgot my old accounts signing in details its been so long since I last come on here, I was Knightrider lol

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