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Atlantic Storm 14th - 15th January


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With a combination of a weather bomb & sting jet overnight, I hope it doesn't cause to much damage IMBY    I'm sorry I just couldn't resist 

Just like what I done with the storm last week I've made up a map showing the top wind speeds according to the Met Office on their Weather Map to give a quick and easy view on the wind speeds,  

Sod the storm, it's the imminent Ice Age I'm concerned about!      

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What about the Wirral?

How do you fair with southerly gales in your location? If you are a bit sheltered it might not be too severe but current gusts look like 60-70mph along the cold front, anywhere exposed out in the Irish Sea expect higher gusts like the IOM, N&W Wales, S Scotland, SW approaches, and Cumbria (from past experiences with severe southerly gales) 

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GFSP rolling out, severe winds moving into Ireland at 45hrs gusts around 85mph. 

 

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Extremely windy weather sweeping eastwards. gusts 70-80mph through the Irish sea affecting adjacent coastal areas. Gusts of 80-90mph into N&W Ireland.

 

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Gusts around 70-75mph into Central/southern Scotland moving into N England.

 

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Edited by Liam J
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The significant difference about this low in comparison to the LPS's we normally see seems to be that the potentially damaging gusts are much further inland than we are usually used to seeing. It might not seem like anything too significant (but still dangerous!) for the people near the coast, but I think it may be a bit of a shock for the people further inland. The MetO are forecasting gusts of 60mph here, I can't remember many occasions where we saw gust speeds that high this far inland.

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Both GFS models take the storm down to 940-945mb, good consistency for many days now and this is pretty close to the Meto FAX charts which show it bottom out at 947mb - getting steadily deeper with each update, potent beast. Good call GFSP... :)

Edited by Liam J
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The significant difference about this low in comparison to the LPS's we normally see seems to be that the potentially damaging gusts are much further inland than we are usually used to seeing. It might not seem like anything too significant (but still dangerous!) for the people near the coast, but I think it may be a bit of a shock for the people further inland. The MetO are forecasting gusts of 60mph here, I can't remember many occasions where we saw gust speeds that high this far inland.

I suppose we'll see, but 60mph+ gusts certainly aren't unusual in this part of the world, and I'd expect that type of wind gust to be attained at least once a winter. Our record is 98mph back in February 1990. In fact, Linton on Ouse, just north of York, had a gust of 62mph 2 days ago - Leeming had 73mph!! The fact that last winter was almost devoid of such wind speeds here was more unusual than anything else.

 

I'd expect gusts in excess of 70mph for it to be truly noteworthy here, and we have yet to come anywhere near our 98mph record.

Edited by cheese
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Yet again we will see HGV after HGV blown over and blocking transport routes. 

There has been 2 weeks notice of this storm, although obviously the exact track is only just becoming apparent (it is only a couple of hundred miles off the 30th Dec models).

There must be a way for local authorities or the Highways Agency to control or stop High sided vehicles travelling in certain exposed locations in times like this. They can do it with the bridges, surely a few hours delay across the motorway network when winds like this are forecast is not beyond sensible action?

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Much a case of as you were with the overnight runs. GFSP wind gust charts. A swathe of severe southerly gales sweeping eastwards along the cold front gusts 70-80mph, then the storm centre tracks towards Scotland with a second swathe of W/SW severe gales affecting N Ireland, central/southern Scotland and N England on the southern flank of the depression. 

 

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GEFS mean pressure chart - Some quite intense perturbations in there...

 

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Edited by Liam J
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Yes GFSP continues to give the best prognosis, but the latest fax chart for tomorrow night 00h00 is lively to say the least as the warm front pushes through. Some very strong winds for the south-east and east off that, and then to the west of the low's centre Northern Ireland and western Scotland could get a battering.

 

So much depends on the track of the low. BBC forecast online (recorded at midnight) speaks of the low tracking further south than previous ones. The fax charts still show it pulling away north-east towards the Orkneys. If it tracks a little further south then much of England comes back into play but it's the tight isobars off the leading edge (warm front) that could be interesting?

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I've seen enough now not to worry about this down this way. 

 

Lost count of the number of times a chart has offered up 70-80 Mph gusts 3 or 4 days before an ''event'' only for it to be watered down run after run in the days leading up, ending up with something that isn't even out of the ordinary. 

 

So IMBY and I am only talking from experience of this particular part of the world (S Coast from lets say Bognor through to Hastings) and the SE Chunk of the UK covering Sussex, Surrey, Kent and London ...

 

I very much doubt that anywhere in that area will see a gust of more than 70 Mph . 

 

I was running along the coast here on Saturday morning and I can tell you that it was gusting a good 65 Mph , there was no warning for that and I can't see this being any worse. 

 

It's laughable sometimes. 

 

Just my take on it and before anyone starts posting charts, I care not what charts say, it's what you experience on the ground that matters, I'm not going to experience a computer chart am I ?

 

It's Northern Ireland,  NW England , SW England and Scotland that are going to get the brunt of this (as per usual)... Not often you'll see a 943 Mb Fax chart Low.

 

The strongest winds in the South are only going to be for a period of a few hours as well and overnight so most people won't even know it's happened. 

 

fax48s_gif_1.gif

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@EML Network. I tend to agree, maybe it's my age but having experienced a few severe weather events in my time, this doesn't have "chaos" written all over it. Yes it will be very windy and there will be a little disruption and a few homes without power, but that's doesn't make it an exceptional event.  

 

Clamours for red, even amber, warnings are in my opinion rather hysterical. Mean wind speed in 1987 was close in some places to the speed of gusts forecast for tomorrow's event and the "Great Storm" occured in Autumn when trees were in full leaf.

 

Nothing I've seen in the charts suggests anything other than a very strong winter storm and I think people on here should really temper their expectations.

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I'm not ruling out 70mph gusts Mickey and you're right that they will probably turn up close to that cold front, I just don't think a 70mph gust is actually that exceptional. If that was the mean wind speed, then we'd be talking.

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I'm not ruling out 70mph gusts Mickey and you're right that they will probably turn up close to that cold front, I just don't think a 70mph gust is actually that exceptional. If that was the mean wind speed, then we'd be talking.

Sure it happened in 87, but I do not expect anything similar down south in my life time, and don't want too for that matter. Never expected such mean speeds from this storm, don't think such strong mean speeds have ever showed, certainly not when I started watching. Saw the feature when it was first modeled and thought it was another GFS blow up low that downgrade or disappear, and never looked at wind speeds, no point at that stage.

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ive calmed down a bit now, much like the gfs imby from its earlier offerings some days ago, a 'windy' night with wheelie bins wobbling on the cards for me and maybe a one off gust to topple the bins. I will just make funny ish comments instead of moaning about what it could have been.

 

At some much earlier runs the gfs was showing 80-90 gusts in my area, but it was FI and i should have ignored it totally.

Edited by mickeyb44
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I think some are still forgetting that the jetstream above is ploughing through at 240-260 mph at the moment.

This could well have an impact on the way this storm delivers.

Edited by matty40s
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