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Atlantic Storm 14th - 15th January


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12z GFSP wind gust charts. 70-80mph sweeping in from the west accompanying the cold front as it track across the country, 60-70mph inland possible. The real strength comes in across N Ireland, SW Scotland as the storm centre moves in with possible gusts of 80-90mph.

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With a combination of a weather bomb & sting jet overnight, I hope it doesn't cause to much damage IMBY    I'm sorry I just couldn't resist 

Just like what I done with the storm last week I've made up a map showing the top wind speeds according to the Met Office on their Weather Map to give a quick and easy view on the wind speeds,  

Sod the storm, it's the imminent Ice Age I'm concerned about!      

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This thread has taken a turn for the surreal, I mean giving the 1987 storm as an example of why the forecast for this storm may not be right! 

 

If you read back to the line that introduced it do you think it was, perhaps, meant to be taken with utmost seriousness? Just a thought … but that particular forecast does stand as a warning that despite advancing technologies sometimes the weather is unpredictable, tracks can change and we need a multiplicity of input data especially where forecasts conflict. I'd have thought. Not that I'm an expert. In fact, if you look at the Christmas low which brought the wonderful cold snap the centre of the low danced all over the place in the models across a range of about 800 miles until quite close to the event.

 

GFS op pushing the low a little further north and another 2mb higher (752mb), but GFSP is very much a live-wire storm. Tonight's fax charts should be interesting. 

 

Edit: blimey just seen Liam's post above. As I said, that GFSP remains a live-wire.

Edited by West is Best
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The main GFS has wionds from a more southerly direction with for us means a fairly quiet night as we are sheltered. South West would mean plenty of noise and excitement. Another update needed.

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Gusts up to 60kts (70mph) over quite a wide area even inland so expect higher gusts around coasts & headlands etc. 

 

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Must be a lot of uncertainty as the evening forecast passed over it fairly quickly. I guess this is because the low hasn't really formed yet.

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I'm travelling for work from Cardiff back home to Warrington from about 4pm Wednesday. These Synoptics don't look good for a particularly safe, or quick journey home!

Yep, I'll be travelling from Bristol to Lincoln on Wednesday night. Brilliant.

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I keep forgetting about the cold front which may be 'squally' as per the warning above, this could give some unforecasted gusts in some areas.

Could be some very powerful gusts just ahead of and as the front moves through and not just on the coast either. 

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BBC London forecast just a few minutes ago stated 65-70mph gusts likely!

Amber in the bag then, this storm is on the steroids. SE/EA looks to be under the damaging winds for lengthy time taking some time to clear the South East corner, only travel if you must - would be my advice.

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Amber in the bag then, this storm is on the steroids. SE/EA looks to be under the damaging winds for lengthy time taking some time to clear the South East corner, only travel if you must - would be my advice.

I was rather hoping the worst of it would have passed by the time I set off for work at about 6am.

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Amber in the bag then, this storm is on the steroids. SE/EA looks to be under the damaging winds for lengthy time taking some time to clear the South East corner, only travel if you must - would be my advice.

I wouldn't say an amber is in the bag yet? I don't think I've ever seen an amber warning issued for gusts of 65-70mph (lower end of disruptive wind speeds), Scotland had an amber warning last week and the gusts were reaching over 100mph, some would argue it should have been red, and Shetland was covered by yellow today and gusts reached 90mph. The impacts would be slightly less there but no less severe for the people who live up there. However this is still a developing situation so time for further modification yet, and the Meto severe weather matrix is one step down from amber so any increase in likelihood/wind speeds by a notch would result in an amber warning for some :)

Edited by Liam J
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