Atlantic Storm 14th - 15th January

[mickeyb44]

Thanks for that, sensible and realistic snow and wind forecast. Even if i did say i was going to ignore the gfs, lol

Edited January 12, 2015 by mickeyb44

[dodge]

Ok so according to various weather forecasting pages this will be a once in 10 - 15 year storm but the highest wind gusts I can see on any website is like 77mph and for my town ie Exeter, the highest gusts will be 70mph (at present)  although according to Met Office it'll be 58mph but never pay much attention to them as they don't forecast wind gusts very well in Exeter even though they are based here.       Well last year we had two storms where we had gusts of over 70mph, one in particular we had just over 75mph so it's hardly a once in a 15 year period storm at present, unless it upgrades or the forecast weather pages are underestimating how strong the storm will be?

 

I am expecting it to be a bad storm but is it really a once in 15 year storm?!!

 

 

It's a good point, the South had a conveyor belt of similar storms last year and even here we had a red warning for wind when 100mph winds battered the fylde coastline - so it's going to pack a punch but I don't think it will be a 1 in 15 year storm.

Edited January 12, 2015 by dodgeredee

[matty40s]

Latest from the met office wind maps on their website for my area and many surrounding areas, max gusts 57-58 mph.

Im now ignoring anything from gfs / gfsp

The GFS has had this storm in it's sights since December 30th model runs- which to me is a pretty amazing feat. 

I think Thursdays headlines will be very weather related.

[BurntFishTrousers]

Pinhole low over Fair Isle means storm force winds through built-up central belt of Scotland, lunchtime Thursday.

 

[Wivenswold]

I do worry about the disappointment some will feel on Wednesday as this almost certainly becomes a fairly run-of-the-mill winter storm. I'm basing that on the lack of panic from the BBC and the Met Office. Same when, towards the weekend, a brief cold pool brings nothing more than a few snow flurries for many.  

 

Too much hopecasting is bad for your health.

[Man With Beard]

Pinhole low over Fair Isle means storm force winds through built-up central belt of Scotland, lunchtime Thursday.

 

Yes have to say this is my feeling - it will be northern England / Southern Scotland that get the worst of this as far as inland areas go, I reckon 70-80mph even inland which will be severe.

[Liam J]

Well the met are forecasting 75mph gusts, looking at the matrix I expect Amber warnings may well be issued maybe tomorrow as likelihood grows on where exactly the strongest winds will impact. You will very rarely ever see a TV weather forecaster 'panic' on a broadcast, look how calm they were when they were talking about the 100mph+ winds over Scotland last week - made me a bit mad as they very rarely emphasise enough how severe it was likely to be.

Edited January 12, 2015 by Liam J

[West is Best]

I do worry about the disappointment some will feel on Wednesday as this almost certainly becomes a fairly run-of-the-mill winter storm. I'm basing that on the lack of panic from the BBC and the Met Office. 

 

And we all know their excellent record on such things

 

Sorry Michael.

 

I'm actually inclined to agree but it's too early to say and a lot depends on the track and when it deepens. It could yet be very severe. Or not.

Edited January 12, 2015 by West is Best

[Man With Beard]

Latest from the met office wind maps on their website for my area and many surrounding areas, max gusts 57-58 mph.

Im now ignoring anything from gfs / gfsp

Along with others on here, I followed the wind charts avidly last year, as I was in the firing line of most pf the storm - and I have to say, the GFS performed pretty well for storm track and wind speeds inside 72 hours - sometimes outperforming specialist short-range models. I will be taking them very seriously this week.

[Mapantz]

I think the latest fax charts sum it up at the moment..

The first bout of strong winds affect the SW and S

As the low tracks NW across the tip of Scotland and continues to deepen, the isobars squeeze together again through N-England & Central belt of Scotland

It wouldn't surprise me if an amber warning was issued within the yellow zone.

[shetland islands]

Well the met are forecasting 75mph gusts, looking at the matrix I expect Amber warnings may well be issued maybe tomorrow as likelihood grows on where exactly the strongest winds will impact. You will very rarely ever see a TV weather forecaster 'panic' on a broadcast, look how calm they were when they were talking about the 100mph+ winds over Scotland last week - made me a bit mad as they very rarely emphasise enough how severe it was likely to be.

Well, very little mentioned about the winds here today (90+ mph), plus the Met never even updated their warning for us. We have had major problems today no one can get off and on the islands, schools had to close, power off and structural damage and even public buildings closing. I would say the met is a poor service here. Some people have been stuck on fair isle and foula for days now.

Edited January 12, 2015 by shetland islands

[Polar Maritime]

Well, very little mentioned about the winds here today (90+ mph), plus the Met never even updated their warning for us. We have had major problems today no one can get off and on the islands, schools had to close, power off and structural damage and even public buildings closing. I would say the met is a poor service here. Some people have been stuck on fair isle and foula for days now.

 

Really? 

 

"A deep area of low pressure will develop over the North Atlantic during Sunday night, bringing gales and locally severe gales to many northern parts of the UK. However, the strongest winds will occur in a narrow zone on the southern flank of the low, which is expected to track eastwards passing to the north of Shetland during Monday afternoon. There remains some uncertainty in the exact track of the low, which is crucial to the location of the most severe winds, but the most likely wind speeds given in the warning will bring the risk of further disruption and also hinder recovery work after the recent damaging winds. The risk of gusts exceeding 90 mph in Shetland is currently rated at 20 percent in the period 1400-1700 hours on Monday." http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1421020800&regionName=os

[mickeyb44]

The GFS has had this storm in it's sights since December 30th model runs- which to me is a pretty amazing feat. 

I think Thursdays headlines will be very weather related.

Hi matty, yes your right - it picked this storm up ages ago. Unfortunately i allowed myself to get excited with quite a few runs showing poss 90mph gusts

in my area, which was just the model trying different ideas of what might happen.

[Paul]

This thread has taken a turn for the surreal, I mean giving the 1987 storm as an example of why the forecast for this storm may not be right! I expect the met office forecast for the winter of 1922 wasn't great either, but times change, technology improves etc. That's not the say the met are infallible, no forecaster is, but that has to be the most tenuous, off kilter reasoning I've seen in a while.

 

As for the midweek storm, it's been well advertised that the track and intensity isn't nailed down, for those that follow the models that's readily apparent as every run/model type has a variation on the theme, some more severe than others. The next 48 hours will see more certainty though I'm sure..

[shetland islands]

Really? 

 

"A deep area of low pressure will develop over the North Atlantic during Sunday night, bringing gales and locally severe gales to many northern parts of the UK. However, the strongest winds will occur in a narrow zone on the southern flank of the low, which is expected to track eastwards passing to the north of Shetland during Monday afternoon. There remains some uncertainty in the exact track of the low, which is crucial to the location of the most severe winds, but the most likely wind speeds given in the warning will bring the risk of further disruption and also hinder recovery work after the recent damaging winds. The risk of gusts exceeding 90 mph in Shetland is currently rated at 20 percent in the period 1400-1700 hours on Monday." http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1421020800&regionName=os

Never updated it though as it hit earlier than the specified times. The council said they opened the schools as the met said it was not going to be a severe until later in the afternoon. Probably should have been an amber warning.

[Paul]

Never updated it though as it hit earlier than the specified times. The council said they opened the schools as the met said it was not going to be a severe until later in the afternoon. Probably should have been an amber warning.

 

The alert was valid from 3am this morning.. And here's the reports from Shetland - reaching nearly 90mph in the afternoon as advertised as being possible in the alert.

 

 

Just think it's sometimes easy to blame forecasters, but they're just the messengers - the weather is the thing causing problems, and looking at the alert/forecasts, compared to the actuals there doesn't seem to be anything jumping out as having gone wrong

[Daniel*]

How come 1987 did not go as envisaged so sudden? sorry for being off topic.

[Paul]

Loads of info here on it:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/education/teens/case-studies/great-storm

 

Michael Fish's true story here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=1987-great-storm;sess=

[johnholmes]

Well, very little mentioned about the winds here today (90+ mph), plus the Met never even updated their warning for us. We have had major problems today no one can get off and on the islands, schools had to close, power off and structural damage and even public buildings closing. I would say the met is a poor service here. Some people have been stuck on fair isle and foula for days now.

 

Can you copy the actual forecast please and pm me-many thanks

It seems a bit odd you have so little good to say about UK Met. Do they not still have a forecaster on at Sullom Voe? They used to be responsible for sea area Fair Isle, able to over ride Met IF needed and worked closely with local authorities on all the islands as well as with Civil Aviation?

[BurntFishTrousers]

Pinhole low over Fair Isle means storm force winds through built-up central belt of Scotland, lunchtime Thursday.

 

06Z and 12Z

[Liam J]

GFSP giving storm force winds over Ireland, N England, S Scotland. 940mb!

[pyrotech]

Can you copy the actual forecast please and pm me-many thanks

It seems a bit odd you have so little good to say about UK Met. Do they not still have a forecaster on at Sullom Voe? They used to be responsible for sea area Fair Isle, able to over ride Met IF needed and worked closely with local authorities on all the islands as well as with Civil Aviation?

Sorry for being slightly off topic

My parents on on Isle of Lewis and although their house sustained severe damage  (30% of roof missing, water pouring in even today)  They were keeping on top of forecast and had adequate warning.

The issues are that even with the warnings there is not a lot you can do to stop tiles getting ripped off roof. 

Getting repaired with continuation of adverse weather is also impossible.

 

The effects can be very different depending on wind direction, for instance you could have a 90 mph gust from North that does no damage, then next storm has 80mph from south and does extensive damage.

The Met as always did a vital job at forecasting these storms, today shows just how difficult this can be. Even now many on here are looking at different models and trying to gain an understanding of intensity and track. The Met then have to be careful not to over do warnings or they will not be taken seriously in future, and not under do either. The warnings are based on too factors. The Effect and likelihood. so if track is not known and so where worst winds will be, then the likelihood is low , until decided. The risk is currently greater on effect than likelihood but this can change on both as the storm moves in, its still 48 hours away.  As a weather enthusiast myself i can understand just how difficult their job is when you have such a fluid situation. 

[blitzen]

If it was snow we were after it would have disappeared by now!    The north should get it a bit easier thankfully but it looks like central and southern Scotland is in for it this time! 

[AdamStorm7891]

Thanks for that, sensible and realistic snow and wind forecast. Even if i did say i was going to ignore the gfs, lol

Ignore Met Office gust predictions, they're not always reliable and tend to underestimate approaching storms. For example the evening before the St Jude storm it predicted we'd struggle to get gusts over 40mph we ended up getting more like 60+

[Mapantz]

Some info at the end, regarding the stormy conditions.