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Atlantic Storm 14th - 15th January


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I wouldn't call it a major downgrade? That's quite misleading IMO. Wind gusts still look concerning, 75mph shown sweeping in from the west with exposure, 60mph+ inland. 

 

GFSP

attachicon.gifgfs222.pngattachicon.gifgfs223.pngattachicon.gifgfs224.png

 

ECM would also produce some stormy conditions. 

attachicon.gifecm104.gif

 

JMA also stormy. 

 

attachicon.gifjma.gifattachicon.gifjms1.gif

Moves through very quickly. As the worst winds move through England and Wales overnight, the impact will be less.

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With a combination of a weather bomb & sting jet overnight, I hope it doesn't cause to much damage IMBY    I'm sorry I just couldn't resist 

Just like what I done with the storm last week I've made up a map showing the top wind speeds according to the Met Office on their Weather Map to give a quick and easy view on the wind speeds,  

Sod the storm, it's the imminent Ice Age I'm concerned about!      

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Moves through very quickly. As the worst winds move through England and Wales overnight, the impact will be less.

The first swathe of strong winds is shown to spread in during the evening between 18:00-21:00 so many people will still be travelling etc. The timing might change with still over 48hrs to go. 

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Looking at the GFS/ Parallel, the worst winds lie along the front band with widespread gusts of 60-70mph. Probably be an hour or so of potentially disruptive weather, luckily at the moment it looks like happening overnight with most places clear by the morning.

75-574PUK.GIF?12-0

72-289PUK.GIF?12-0

 

Another spell of similar winds will occur later on as the core of the low tracks across Scotland, again a widespread area for potentially damaging gusts

84-289PUK.GIF?12-0

 

In the end near enough anywhere in the UK could see gusts of over 50 mph, some exposed locations may get 80mph. It's going to be pretty wild.

 

Note the GFS op has similar wind speeds to be honest.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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A major downgrade to Wednesday, Thursday Thursday is the major downgrade with the strongest winds clearing by six and unlike previous days the wind not maintaining 60 to 70 mph gusts. The direction of the wind and the subsequent downgrade at the moment means we will probably not even notice it.

 

You are referring to the GFS operational run. It is not a downgrade anywhere else.

 

No-one has today referenced the Met Office Fax charts. At this short range I'd suggest these are far more useful than the rather clumsy GFS tool. The overnight Fax charts show the centre of the low in exactly the same position and at 950mb rather than 948mb. 

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm

Edited by Osbourne One-Nil
To make it acceptable!
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Carol Kirkwood just mentioned 'coastal gales' for the Wednesday storm and tbh the BBC graphics didn't look too scary, albeit the storm was still in the western approaches at run's end. It's intriguing how Carol's description was so much at odds with what some model runs are showing, less than 72 hours out.

It can downgrade away as far as I'm concerned though. I don't want to see a big storm this year for hassles it'd likely cause me this particular year.

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A major downgrade to Wednesday, Thursday Thursday is the major downgrade with the strongest winds clearing by six and unlike previous days the wind not maintaining 60 to 70 mph gusts. The direction of the wind and the subsequent downgrade at the moment means we will probably not even notice it.

That sounds like a very IMBY comment as it doesn't look like any sort of downgrade, gusts still look to be 60-70mph for a large swathe of the country. You certainly won't miss it and we still have over 48 hours of models to go before the event.

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Awaiting the updates to weather warnings for the period. About Midday? Hopefully more clues then.

Carol has since mentioned coastal gales with gusts to 70mph. On the face of it, this would suggest nothing more than the type of storm we see most winters and nowhere near the scale of that which affected Scotland last week. However, some model runs suggest a fair bit more than Carol is forecasting.

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The fax charts are the best clue now( quite irrelevant now if the gfs is still blowing up a 90mph storm lol) the 72hr fax chart ( midnight thursday) would provide 70mph coastal gusting for Ireland,western and Southern England.A couple of hours of gusts around the 60mph mark for inland central and southern England.Northern England and Scotland miss the worst of the first swathe of winds,an increase for Scotland Thursday morning.

It remains a deepning low as it crosses our shores,then fills slowly as it move away from Scotland on Thursday.

Edited by sunnijim
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Thursdays storm is just coming into NMM's range now and it also has it below 950mb

 

nmmuk-2-72-0.png?12-06

 

Ahead of the storm Scotland could have some snow on the leading edge

 

nmmuk-1-64-0.png?12-06nmmuk-1-66-0.png?12-06nmmuk-1-68-0.png?12-06nmmuk-1-70-0.png?12-06

 

But without doubt its the wind gusts and rain in the south which are the main concern

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Judging by the Met Office's abject forecast last night for my area (Mansfield) today, I don't hold out much hope that their less powerful storm forecast will be anywhere near correct.

 

Last night they said early rain clearing, now have changed to rain all day!

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certainly a very potent storm coming up ,i,m not comparing it with any other historical storm at the moment as there is still some Uncertainty of its track and depth but pointing out that with the burns day storm this arrived during daylight hours and caused many casualties ,hopefully this one will arrive at its worst overnight but i fully expect gusts of around the upper 70s or even 80mph even in land .went into bristol last friday with my wife and we had a hard job to walk in local 40mph gusts with many shop advertising boards flying in all directions .the cold front associated with this low could provide some spectacular weather ,then to follow something interesting, possibilitys of something wintry for some ,but at this range 4/5 days we need to get the dice to fall right .so we reach the mid point of winter with the possible position of a low of 950 ish milibars ,will mother nature balance the books soon with a high of outstanding credit ,lets hope so , :drinks:

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The met office have extended the yellow wind warning into southern Scotland and now covers all of northern Ireland

 

Issued at: 1114 on Mon 12 Jan 2015

Valid from: 1500 on Wed 14 Jan 2015

Valid to: 1500 on Thu 15 Jan 2015

 

A deepening area of low pressure is expected to track northeastwards, probably crossing the northwest of Scotland early on Thursday. To the south of this system, gales or severe gales are expected to develop. Gusts of 50-65 mph are likely quite widely through the warning area, whilst gusts of 75 mph are likely around southern and western coasts and over exposed hills. The public should be aware of the risk of localised disruption to transport and possibly power supplies. This warning has been updated to include the whole of Northern Ireland along with southern and central Scotland as far north as the Tay. The end time has also been extended further into Thursday to take account of very strong winds lasting longer into Thursday across parts of Scotland.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

Another Atlantic low pressure system is expected to deepen significantly as it tracks towards the UK. The strongest winds will initially be across England and Wales during the second half of Wednesday into early Thursday. This may also lead to large waves on some coasts of Wales and southern England. A separate swathe of very strong winds will probably affect more northern parts of the UK including the Central Belt of Scotland during Thursday. As well as the very strong winds, a band of squally rain is likely to sweep eastwards across many parts through the period. The exact track of this system is still open to some uncertainty, as is the location of the strongest winds and it is likely that this warning will be reviewed in the coming days to fine tune the areas at risk from the impacts.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1421193600&regionName=ta

Edited by Summer Sun
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Yet again the wind is causing lots of problems up here. Power cuts, damage and service disruption and only a yellow alert.

The low to the north of scotland was at 643 at 10:00 according to this. http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?map=eur_full&date=2015011210&size=large〈=en&area=eur

 

It was at 642 at 11:00, http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?map=eur_full&date=2015011211&size=large〈=en&area=eur

 

so still deepening a bit, the iso bars look quite tight for your area. Not sure how accurate those charts are though. I've heard they use observations for them.

Edited by alexisj9
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At work, Has anyone got the GFSP 6z wind gust charts? How were they looking? Track still the same? :)

 

21z 

 

ukgust.png

 

00z 

 

ukgust.png

 

Sorry forgot to add the GFS(P)  :rofl:

 

 

63-289PUK.GIF?12-6

 

66-289PUK.GIF?12-6

 

Track still seems the same to me although its deeper on the GFS(P) (938mb) GFS is 944mb not that much of a difference I know centre of low at +72 is almost on top Isle of Harris slightly to west. :)

Edited by Zephyr
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Ok so according to various weather forecasting pages this will be a once in 10 - 15 year storm but the highest wind gusts I can see on any website is like 77mph and for my town ie Exeter, the highest gusts will be 70mph (at present)  although according to Met Office it'll be 58mph but never pay much attention to them as they don't forecast wind gusts very well in Exeter even though they are based here.       Well last year we had two storms where we had gusts of over 70mph, one in particular we had just over 75mph so it's hardly a once in a 15 year period storm at present, unless it upgrades or the forecast weather pages are underestimating how strong the storm will be?

 

I am expecting it to be a bad storm but is it really a once in 15 year storm?!!

Edited by TwisterGirl81
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The fax charts are the best clue now( quite irrelevant now if the gfs is still blowing up a 90mph storm lol) the 72hr fax chart ( midnight thursday) would provide 70mph coastal gusting for Ireland,western and Southern England.A couple of hours of gusts around the 60mph mark for inland central and southern England.Northern England and Scotland miss the worst of the first swathe of winds,an increase for Scotland Thursday morning.

It remains a deepning low as it crosses our shores,then fills slowly as it move away from Scotland on Thursday.

Obviously the fax charts are the best guidance now, with their human input, but until models downgrade, they need to have a wary eye cast over them IMO.

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RE confusion over everything... with the warnings all over the place I will make a bit more simple.. 

 

Rain risk tonight: 

 

Southern England: Kent, Surrey and Sussex.. 

 

Snow Tuesday:

 

South west England.. Higher ground and into Wales (Lower levels will see snow but VERY un-likley to stick

 

Wind Wednesday night into Thursday:

 

Everywhere will see 65-70MPH inland... Away from Scotland.. As the track of the storm makes strongest winds on the southern flank..

 

Western and Southern coasts including MOST east coast... 80MPH possible touch higher in exposed spots.. 

 

Rain Wednesday night into Thursday:

 

Would say southern England the coast with South east England seeing more heavy rain..

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