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DisruptiveGust

Atlantic Storm 14th - 15th January

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That's one hell of a storm on the GFS(P). But it's so different to the ECMWF that I just can't take it seriously.

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Looks a bit deeper than earlier runs? I haven't really been following today.

 

gfs-0-84.png?18

Edited by Zephyr

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GFSP - Looks like there'll be two zones of severe winds with this system. The first swathe accompanying the cold front with severe gale to storm force southerly winds sweeping across the UK with gusts in excess of 80mph perhaps more around exposed coasts, an isolated 90mph somewhere perhaps? Up to 70mph inland in some locations. Then the second swathe will come in around the southern flank of the storm with gusts of 70-80mph+ over parts of Ireland and NW UK. 


That's one hell of a storm on the GFS(P). But it's so different to the ECMWF that I just can't take it seriously.

Yes, but the consistency is something of note, very bullish. Even something in between the two would be severe. 

Edited by Liam J

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I was going to set up my new Vantage pro 2 tomorrow but I am debating whether that's a good idea now!

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That's one hell of a storm on the GFS(P). But it's so different to the ECMWF that I just can't take it seriously.

Yes ECM is almost 20mb 'fuller' at midnight Wed.

 

post-4523-0-53469200-1421015080_thumb.pn

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Tomorrow morning looks quite gusty to begin with; widespread 50mph gusts in England, 60mph in Scotland and 70mph in the far North of Scotland.

post-17472-0-45556500-1421014714_thumb.jpost-17472-0-06199900-1421014723_thumb.j

The windstorm on Thursday may be the last of the season (until the end of January) before hopefully some decent lasting snow falls.

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GFSP - Looks like there'll be two zones of severe winds with this system. The first swathe accompanying the cold front with severe gale to storm force southerly winds sweeping across the UK with gusts in excess of 80mph perhaps more around exposed coasts, an isolated 90mph somewhere perhaps? Up to 70mph inland in some locations. Then the second swathe will come in around the southern flank of the storm with gusts of 70-80mph+ over parts of Ireland and NW UK. 

Yes, but the consistency is something of note, very bullish. Even something in between the two would be severe. 

 

The GFSP was the most bullish with the last storm, keeping intensity while other models reduced strength on the day before. I think events in the far north validated the parallel on that occasion - will it be similar this coming storm?

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Matt Hugo on Twitter.. Track same/similar as GFSP. Looks quite intense - Must be some interesting EPS members!

 

post-9615-0-30203500-1421015368_thumb.pn

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What John says will put my area in firing line.  Liam latest pic's of possible wind speeds makes me nervous.   Glad the track not nailed but do think its likely we are in for a ride here.

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The GFSP was the most bullish with the last storm, keeping intensity while other models reduced strength on the day before. I think events in the far north validated the parallel on that occasion - will it be similar this coming storm?

We'll find out in the next couple of days, we are only 3 days away from this system making landfall, praise for the new GFSP model if it's got this one right, picked it up days ago. And kept it more or less the same ever since with only slight variations run to run unlike some of the other models. 

Edited by Liam J
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pfff..... this roof job's going to be fun this week!!

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The GFSP was the most bullish with the last storm, keeping intensity while other models reduced strength on the day before. I think events in the far north validated the parallel on that occasion - will it be similar this coming storm?

 

Yep, in that case though the ECM was also showing a very strong low, whereas here the GFS(P) and ECM are quite different.

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pfff..... this roof job's going to be fun this week!!

you're not kidding I've got part of mine fly battoned !!!..

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Well. Weds night looks very interesting now!!!

 

I wonder what the papers will go with this time round?

 

Looks like easy gusts of 70/80mph inland in exposed areas.. the south coast... wow... Gonna need to weld the hatches shut.

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Well. Weds night looks very interesting now!!!

 

I wonder what the papers will go with this time round?

 

Looks like easy gusts of 70/80mph inland in exposed areas.. the south coast... wow... Gonna need to weld the hatches shut.

as long as you haven't got 90 thousand tons of iron ore in there you should be ok !!!..
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Quite a windy night out there currently, just had a gust very loud! 32mph.- Almost double that figure for Weds night episode. Could be rather dangerous that one.

Edited by Mark N

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On weather outlook.com Exeter is forecast 74mph with 46mph mean wind speeds, it's been going up and up the last few days....it'll be a noisy night for sure, love a good storm

Edited by TwisterGirl81
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Up to 41 mph here now and getting louder.

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Edited by Richie V
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Tonight's storm is strange, though that Scotland was getting the worst of it, however wales has been having much higher gust consistently. In the last hour mean winds have been 54 and gusting at 81, according to XC weather. http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

 

It's been in the 70's for gusts before this.

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Tonight's storm is strange, though that Scotland was getting the worst of it, however wales has been having much higher gust consistently. In the last hour mean winds have been 54 and gusting at 81, according to XC weather. http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

 

It's been in the 70's for gusts before this.

It's very stop start here, Wednesday/Thursday's storm still looks bad/good depending on whether you like storms or not. Nice link, will come in handy midweek. :smile: Hope you miss the worst of it.

Edited by lassie23

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i certainly have Liam, i can't see anywhere that wouldn't see 70mph gusts at some point. the coasts especially are going to get battered!

A worrying thought that, are you suggesting that even London and the surrounding Counties could see 70mph gusts?

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A major downgrade to Wednesday, Thursday Thursday is the major downgrade with the strongest winds clearing by six and unlike previous days the wind not maintaining 60 to 70 mph gusts. The direction of the wind and the subsequent downgrade at the moment means we will probably not even notice it.

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Downgrade yes but I wouldn't call it a major downgrade? That's quite misleading IMO. Wind gusts still look concerning, 75mph shown sweeping in from the west with exposure, 60mph+ inland. 90mph coming into Ireland. Not much of a downgrade, fluctuations are bound to occur as we are still a few days away. 

 

GFSP

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ECM would also produce some stormy conditions. 

post-9615-0-80136500-1421045206_thumb.gi

 

JMA also stormy. 

 

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Edited by Liam J
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