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Atlantic Storm 14th - 15th January


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A little confused by the various forecasts. The Met Office for my region (Mansfield, Notts), updated 7pm, says a max gust of 52mph overnight Wed/Thur which would be lower than the Friday night/Saturday morning just gone. They also don't seem to make Thursday daytime that windy at all (relatively speaking of course)  compared to other forecasts.

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With a combination of a weather bomb & sting jet overnight, I hope it doesn't cause to much damage IMBY    I'm sorry I just couldn't resist 

Just like what I done with the storm last week I've made up a map showing the top wind speeds according to the Met Office on their Weather Map to give a quick and easy view on the wind speeds,  

Sod the storm, it's the imminent Ice Age I'm concerned about!      

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I thought John Hammond gave a very fair forecast highlighting the uncertainty and did you notice the way they didn't show any wind graphics for overnight Wednesday into Thursday?

i was more worried  what could happen in the north sea    when the storm gets  there  i.e the east coast

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Not sure if this has been mentioned, and I'm not sure what the set up is for one, but is there a possibility of a sting jet with this Low midweek?

I don't think so as the storm will have passed it's rapidly deepening phase as it crosses the UK. Possibly a sting jet out over the Alantic!

Edited by Liam J
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A little confused by the various forecasts. The Met Office for my region (Mansfield, Notts), updated 7pm, says a max gust of 52mph overnight Wed/Thur which would be lower than the Friday night/Saturday morning just gone. They also don't seem to make Thursday daytime that windy at all (relatively speaking of course)  compared to other forecasts.

Great post , if I could read it, Better get the magnifine Glass :D

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A little confused by the various forecasts. The Met Office for my region (Mansfield, Notts), updated 7pm, says a max gust of 52mph overnight Wed/Thur which would be lower than the Friday night/Saturday morning just gone. They also don't seem to make Thursday daytime that windy at all (relatively speaking of course)  compared to other forecasts.

Agree. MetO forecasts do not currently match the GFS wind charts being posted. Hopefully MetO is correct.

It looks windy in the Midlands on Wed/Thurs but no more than that.

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still going via about the middle  of  the  uk it looks  like

That track is in the ensemble minority, why do you always post perturbation 16  :cc_confused:  there's 20 to choose from! Lol

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That track is in the ensemble minority, why do you always post perturbation 16  :cc_confused:  there's 20 to choose from! Lol

im sorry but that the one i use

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It is interesting to note that a lot of people up here do not take note of the Metoffice as they are, more than often, wrong when predicting weather events. The icelandic Metoffice issues forecasts for Faroe and Shetland and these are quite often more accurate. In fact, I think the local media use the icelandic metoffice more often then not. The storm for tomorrow is a good example where a warning was placed yesterday. However the icelandic met issued one on late Thursday.

It never rains in the Shetlands according to the Met Offices rainfall radar either!!

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Great post , if I could read it, Better get the magnifine Glass :D

Very fair point AW :) 

 

Here I go again ... A little confused by the various forecasts. The Met Office for my region (Mansfield, Notts), updated 7pm, says a max gust of 52mph overnight Wed/Thur which would be lower than the Friday night/Saturday morning just gone. They also don't seem to make Thursday daytime that windy at all (relatively speaking of course)  compared to other forecasts.

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18z rolling out, much the same position but less deep than the 12z.

 

post-9615-0-25126300-1421013037_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-42137500-1421013181_thumb.pn

 

GFSP a bit further north and deeper.

 

post-9615-0-16089800-1421013281_thumb.pn

 

Powerful 940mb storm on the GFSP on a more northerly track. Storm force winds from N Wales northwards, and Ireland!

 

post-9615-0-48818800-1421013424_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-00779800-1421013540_thumb.pn

Edited by Liam J
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the latest Fax, link below shows for 12z Thursday their view this evening; the low is some 5mb deeper than the last 12z position and about 3 degrees SW.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

Whether the actual track will end up as currently shown or a bit north or south we will know by early Wednesday I would suggest. By then we canuse basic meteorology to track a fairly accurate path without a computer model.

It does look like severe gale force winds or even higher for a wide swathe of urban UK, just which urban area being worst affected is not yet totally clear.

For example the 'gradient' or distance between the isobars on the latest Fax suggests a speed of 80 knots over areas of W/NW Yorkshire, so mean speeds at least half that with gusts possible to or even in excess of this, especially if there are an 'lee effects'. This would be when an inversion in the frontal zone develops just above the tops of the Pennines forcing the air through a much narrower depth of air than if a normal atmosphere was present.

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18z rolling out, much the same position but less deep than the 12z.

 

attachicon.gifgfs211.pngattachicon.gifgfs212.png

 

GFSP a bit further north and deeper.

 

attachicon.gifgfs213.png

 

Powerful 940mb storm on the GFSP on a more northerly track. Storm force winds from N Wales northwards, and Ireland!

 

attachicon.gifgfs214.pngattachicon.gifgfs215.png

 

looking at the GFSP it comes in maybe a couple of hours earlier and a tad more powerful!

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looking at the GFSP it comes in maybe a couple of hours earlier and a tad more powerful!

Indeed, timing looks like it's been brought forward a bit, faster moving system. Have you seen the gust charts above?! Most of the UK would feel the force of it! 

Edited by Liam J
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Indeed, timing looks like it's been brought forward, faster moving system. Have you seen the gust charts above?! Most of the UK would feel the force of it!

As is stands and with my location, I can't say that I'm looking forward to this at all.

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Indeed, timing looks like it's been brought forward a bit, faster moving system. Have you seen the gust charts above?! Most of the UK would feel the force of it! 

 

i certainly have Liam, i can't see anywhere that wouldn't see 70mph gusts at some point. the coasts especially are going to get battered!

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