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Atlantic Storm 14th - 15th January


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Met office current warnings dont agree with some of these charts, personally after looking at the charts posted in the last 2 pages of this thread I can see the south east corner having the lowest wind speed gusts, just my opinion on the recent charts in this thread.

Are you looking at charts right? They show a swathe of S'ly severe gales sweeping much of the UK including the SE corner! Gusts around 70mph maybe more on the coast. :)

 

Check my above post and look at the predicted gust speeds https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82219-atlantic-storms-january-2015/page-14#entry3112476

Edited by Liam J
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With a combination of a weather bomb & sting jet overnight, I hope it doesn't cause to much damage IMBY    I'm sorry I just couldn't resist 

Just like what I done with the storm last week I've made up a map showing the top wind speeds according to the Met Office on their Weather Map to give a quick and easy view on the wind speeds,  

Sod the storm, it's the imminent Ice Age I'm concerned about!      

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im simply looking at the colour shades from purple to red to light red and the se has lightest shade of colour within the storms windfields. Yes its an imby post, i just want more than gales. Maybe i am reading it all wrong ?

Edited by mickeyb44
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Another 2 models have updated to their 12z runs,

 

The GEM has it track over the NW of Ireland into Scotland and gets down to 950mb at one point which brings strong winds to Ireland, Wales and England. So it agrees with the UKMO and GFS.

 

post-6686-0-26427500-1420995450_thumb.pn

 

NAVGEM is slightly more South and a bit weaker looking like it gets down to 960mb and still brings strong winds to much of the UK and Ireland.

 

post-6686-0-66376100-1420995450_thumb.pn

Edited by weathermaster
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2 shades of yellow warning on the latest meto warnings, confusing, well it is to me anyway.

 

It's easy to understand really, one is for wind, and one is for rain. However, they have not been updated since midday (As per usual) so therefore are not very specific as of yet. 

 

It looks lighter because you aren't covered by the rain warning as it stands... They're both the same level of warning, it's just two yellow warnings on top of each other, obviously look darker than just one shade.

 

If you're confused, just click on the warnings and it'll give more detail. 

Edited by saint
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Hi, I thought thats what it meant but the the symbols by the text show both graphics for wind and rain for my area. As you say, maybe some of it is due an update.

 

Ive just clicked on the 'yellow warning of wind' for my area and it goes straight to text saying 'yellow warning of rain'.

Edited by mickeyb44
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Hi, I thought thats what it meant but the the symbols by the text show both graphics for wind and rain for my area. As you say, maybe some of it is due an update.

 

That's because the METO warnings only go down the region level, so part of your region will be under both warnings, and therefore it says you are, but when you go in more locally, you can see you aren't covered by both. 

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Thanks saint, so it looks like my area is not under a wind warning.....yet. lol

 

It is, you're just not specifically yourself under a rain warning as of yet.

 

That wind warning will change, and quite possibly be upgraded. 

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Doesn't looks as bad on the ECM.

Those charts are 24hrs apart and the low will be filling by 96hrs after passing it's deepest phase, but you are right it doesn't look as bad. 

 

Well done to the GFS on picking up on this storm days ago with more or less the right track and stuck with it, however still open to some further modification but I wouldn't expect any significant changes regarding the track, just the depth to decide on now. 

Edited by Liam J
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Storm Rachel will affect the UK late on Wednesday and throughout Thursday. The area of most concern is the Southern flank of Rachel which will swing across the UK on Thursday. Severe gales and storm force winds will affect many parts of Ireland, England and Wales. 

The intensity of Rachel is enough to cause significant disruption to travel with trees and power lines expected to be be brought down in the winds on Thursday. 

If you have travel plans on Thursday then follow Rachel closely. At present, Rachel is forecast to be a storm system which the UK sees perhaps once every 10-15 years during the Winter months.

 

Just come across this on another weather site, interesting although I don't think it will be as extreme as this is worded. 

 

Just seen Countryfile and the storm tracked much as the 12z runs show, John also mentioned the storm could be deeper than he showed with even stronger winds. 

Edited by Liam J
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Just come across this on another weather site, interesting although I don't think it will be as extreme as this is worded. 

 

Just seen Countryfile and the storm tracked much as the 12z runs show, John also mentioned the storm could be deeper than he showed with even stronger winds.

Yes I just saw it, it looked menacing enough as it is with the isobars really squeezing up across the south of England on Wednesday night.

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Ok, sorry i will shut up. Sorry guys and girls.

Getting carried away, as I always do when these events happen. :D

Mickey

No good looking at detail just yet, all to play for, this keeps being nudged North and then South again, even by tomorrow night this might not be nailed on!

I remember the year before last no warnings yet we had trees snapped in half! And this was in hertford 5 minutes up the road, I have the pictures some where

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At this stage it certainly seems that the met office are paying little attention to the gfs,having seen countryfile it looks like the ecm/ukmo model and their own 'in house' models are pointing to a fairly standard winter storm...50mph inland gusts for England 60mph + for coasts and hills.

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At this stage it certainly seems that the met office are paying little attention to the gfs,having seen countryfile it looks like the ecm/ukmo model and their own 'in house' models are pointing to a fairly standard winter storm...50mph inland gusts for England 60mph + for coasts and hills.

John never mentioned wind speeds for Wed/Thur, he said it would be stormy midweek and the low could be deeper than what he showed, maybe a comment as a nod towards something like the GFS models showing as a possibility?

Edited by Liam J
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It is interesting to note that a lot of people up here do not take note of the Metoffice as they are, more than often, wrong when predicting weather events. The icelandic Metoffice issues forecasts for Faroe and Shetland and these are quite often more accurate. In fact, I think the local media use the icelandic metoffice more often then not. The storm for tomorrow is a good example where a warning was placed yesterday. However the icelandic met issued one on late Thursday.

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John never mentioned wind speeds for Wed/Thur, he said it would stormy midweek and the low could be deeper than what he showed, maybe a comment as a nod towards something like the GFS models may come off?

He did show the pressure chart they expect,so those speeds are my take on that...As i say the chart JH showed was nothing like gfs output. Edited by sunnijim
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Looking at the NMM12 the winds potentially look dangerous, but relief for Scotland [perhaps] anything south of there, better watch out :closedeyes:

post-6830-0-21190300-1421005780_thumb.pn

Edited by ANYWEATHER
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