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Atlantic Storm 14th - 15th January


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With a combination of a weather bomb & sting jet overnight, I hope it doesn't cause to much damage IMBY    I'm sorry I just couldn't resist 

Just like what I done with the storm last week I've made up a map showing the top wind speeds according to the Met Office on their Weather Map to give a quick and easy view on the wind speeds,  

Sod the storm, it's the imminent Ice Age I'm concerned about!      

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Posted
  • Location: North of Falkirk
  • Weather Preferences: North Atlantic cyclogenesis
  • Location: North of Falkirk

    Please bear in mind the highest windspeed recorded at Stornoway was highest official recording and taken in relative sheltered area near Airport.

    Many weather stations were destroyed by this storm. Some unofficial stations recorded over 130mph gust.

    The houses are built a little differently than down south

    For instance, under tiles they have felt and under that wood panelling. So yes places like Isle of Lewis is used to some severe weather and fairly prepared for it. This storm damaged 2/3 of houses on Lewis. My family (Parents)  had 30% of roof ripped off and their neighbours had worse with windows ect blown through. This was a very violent storm and even the resilient homes of this area had a lot of damage. 

    There is also the problem of repairs ( With rain water now coming through the ceiling and any further storms now causing further damage) There are limited roofers and builders on an Island like Lewis. There is  the need of ferry to bring supplies, not just food but building supplies and slates etc. 

    I think maybe this would have been a location where red warning could have been issued based on likelihood and effect. However due to resilience of the properties and people and lower population this may be why it remained at Amber. 

    Highest wind speed last Friday (not reported in any mainstream media) was the 180mph reading on St Kilda, at the top of Mullach Mor.

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    Posted
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow/Blizzards in Winter, Cool Summers. (I'm allergic to heat)!
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)

     

    Ben Rich hasn't half changed since i last saw him...

    Edited by SE Blizzards
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    Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    GFS rolling out, 945mb storm approaching UK. 

    post-9615-0-40787100-1420991427_thumb.pn

     

     

    Slightly further north than the 6z.

    post-9615-0-91052900-1420991598_thumb.pn

    Edited by Liam J
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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    Although the Parallel has the storm perhaps slightly further south at 84hrs.  945mb, blimey!

     

    gfsnh-0-84.png?12

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  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    Very strong winds ploughing into England, Wales & Ireland on the GFSP - Stormy!

     

    post-9615-0-18062700-1420992316_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-23129800-1420992323_thumb.pn

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    Coastal areas of Wales and Northwest England are going to take a bit of a battering!

     

    gfs-0-96.png?12

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    Posted
  • Location: Herts
  • Location: Herts

    On the latest runs, where are the worst winds looking likely? Is the south still looking bad? I've got to decide whether I want to get a train back from Leeds to London early on Wednesday, or leave it till to Thursday and risk disruption...

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  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    looks like it's firming up to be a dangerous storm ,your photo shop wind speeds might yet come to fruition !!!!!

    As I said, should be careful what I wish for!! LOL   :help:

    Edited by Liam J
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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    On the latest runs, where are the worst winds looking likely? Is the south still looking bad? I've got to decide whether I want to get a train back from Leeds to London early on Wednesday, or leave it till to Thursday and risk disruption...

     

    Based on the GFSP, I would say the South of Scotland down to the Northern Midlands look likely to cop the worst of it, but plenty of time to change either way!

    Edited by Ice Day
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    Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    Some very powerful gusts on the GFSP!! Even inland... 65-70mph or so inland, 80-90mph for exposure poss 100mph SW Ireland  :help:

     

    post-9615-0-18849800-1420992772_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-91953100-1420992777_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-83077800-1420992784_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-18685000-1420992791_thumb.pn

    Edited by Liam J
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    Posted
  • Location: North of Falkirk
  • Weather Preferences: North Atlantic cyclogenesis
  • Location: North of Falkirk

    It will of course trickle north with each run giving Scotland more winds than currently progged. You just know it will !

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    Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    UKMO much further north on this run and more intense, although less so than the GFS models. 

    post-9615-0-41561900-1420993146_thumb.gi

    Edited by Liam J
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    Posted
  • Location: Cuxton,Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms,Hot `n` sunny!
  • Location: Cuxton,Kent.

    Keeping a careful eye on this,being a motorcycle courier with the majority of my daily mileage spent on the motorways in the S.E you can imagine my trepidation seeing as currently it`s not doing the usual downgrades nearing the time! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

    UKMO much further north on this run and more intense, although less so than the GFS models. 

    attachicon.gifukmo99.gif

     

    There's just a 2mb difference between the UKMO and the GFS(P) at 96 hours. I think the UKMO would actually be pretty strong if we could see 84-90 hours.

     

    Next up....ECM!

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    Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire

    Wow was expecting a downgrade on the 12z but its getting worse. Going to be very serious across some built up parts 

    of the country.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Sun and Snow
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll, Scotland

    Comparing the New and Old GFS models along with the UKMO.

     

    72 hours

     

    All three place it in a very similar place with the UKMO slightly more East. Both the GFS models are down to 960mb while the UKMO is at 970mb.

     

    post-6686-0-86109100-1420993428_thumb.pn post-6686-0-22373200-1420993429_thumb.gi

     

    The strong stormy winds are still out in the Atlantic at this point as the storm starts to drop in pressure over the next 24 hours the GFS has it drop by 15mb down to 945mb and the UKMO has it drop by 20mb down to 950mb.

     

    post-6686-0-39751700-1420993666_thumb.pn

     

    96 hours

     

    The GFS models place it over Scotland while the UKMO is still a but more East. The deepness of the storm varies amongst the three models from 945mb to 950mb.

     

    post-6686-0-74893600-1420993811_thumb.pn post-6686-0-14837400-1420993812_thumb.gi

     

    The wind speeds during Wednesday evening through to Thursday are shown to be very stormy and widespread with Ireland seeing the worst of the winds closely followed by England and Wales.

     

    During Wednesday evening 60 to 70mph gusts over Ireland and possibly 80mph in the Southern parts,

     

    post-6686-0-01821100-1420993975_thumb.pn

     

    During Thursday night widespread gusts of 60 to 70mph are shown across Scotland, Wales and England while Ireland see's 70 to 80mph and possibly over 90mph in the West.

     

    post-6686-0-12305700-1420994072_thumb.pn post-6686-0-70001300-1420994073_thumb.pn

     

    As Thursday morning progresses the wind starts to ease down but remains strong in the West and North.

     

    post-6686-0-52948800-1420994172_thumb.pn

     

    There seems to be growing confidence in the track of this storm now as the GFS models and starting to consistently along with several other models place the center of the low over the NW of Ireland and Scotland bringing the stormy winds to most of the UK. We could still see a few small adjustments in the track and it still has plenty of time to upgrade/downgrade.

    Edited by weathermaster
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    Posted
  • Location: cleethorpes
  • Location: cleethorpes

    When the last man leave SS Britain can he switch the light off :help:

     

    Thanks weathermaster the side here seems to increase not expert is the east side a sting in its tail

    Edited by vladthemert
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    Met office current warnings dont agree with some of these charts, personally after looking at the charts posted in the last 2 pages of this thread I can see the south east corner having the lowest wind speed gusts, just my opinion on the recent charts in this thread.

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    Posted
  • Location: Herts
  • Location: Herts

    Met office current warnings dont agree with some of these charts, personally after looking at the charts posted in the last 2 pages of this thread I can see the south east corner having the lowest wind speed gusts, just my opinion on the recent charts in this thread.

     

    The warnings will not be updated for a few hours yet, and quite possibly not until tomorrow morning.

     

    The METO warnings are not issued immediately after the models come out, they'll assess them, along with using their own data/interpretation before updating further warnings. 

    Edited by saint
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