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Atlantic Storm 14th - 15th January


Liam J

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Posted
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport

What winds can cumbria expect

Windy wind :-)

75mph to 80mph i believe.

Edited by No Balls Like Snow Balls
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Posted
  • Location: Wivenhoe, North East Essex, 2m asl
  • Location: Wivenhoe, North East Essex, 2m asl

Yep, let's see in the morning, I'll be happy to be the object of fun tomorrow. We'll call it my Michael Fish moment. I have the same initials as it is.

 

@Twistergirl81 - I hope it not only comes off but lands on my knackered old conservatory and decking so I can get both replaced on my insurance.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

I'm in the opposite camp. The BBC and the MO would have expressed more caution if it was felt the eventual outcome of this storm could have been worse than forecast. And before anyone throws 1987 in my face, it's exactly that storm that ensures more cautious forecasting these days.

 

My prediction is that this thread will be full of disappointed people in the morning, aside from a few blown over trees in exposed areas and a couple of villages without power this will turn out to be non-event.

 

Sorry, but I feel I have to balance out the hopecasting that goes on around these parts.

 

so do you feel this prediction is wrong?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1421193600&regionName=sw

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Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex

 

I must admit that I find the matrix there a bit strange. It's still biased towards low probability / high impact. Surely the probability must be fairly high now? (notwithstanding impact effects)

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Posted
  • Location: North of Falkirk
  • Weather Preferences: North Atlantic cyclogenesis
  • Location: North of Falkirk

https://www.meteoblue.com/en/weather/map/cloudcoverdensity/europe#

 

Click to Thursday @0400. If that's not a sting jet over central Scotland I dunno what is.

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Posted
  • Location: Wivenhoe, North East Essex, 2m asl
  • Location: Wivenhoe, North East Essex, 2m asl

No.

 

I trust them with those gust speeds, they are the experts after all. I was merely saying that there seemed to be a growing concensus on here that it could be a storm to remember. What's predicted by the MO at the moment will not be a major historical event, just a bad winter storm.

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Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, high winds, thunder, snow
  • Location: Upminster, Essex

No.

 

I trust them with those gust speeds, they are the experts after all. I was merely saying that there seemed to be a growing concensus on here that it could be a storm to remember. What's predicted by the MO at the moment will not be a major historical event, just a bad winter storm.

I've noticed whenever significant storms are approaching that the Met Office gust predictions tend to downgrade in the 12 hours or so leading up to it, only yesterday evening it was predicting 55-65mph gusts as far inland as the London suburbs now it's only saying around 45mph, I'm not sure whether these latest readings can be entirely trusted. I remember 12 hours before St' Jude hit it said gusts for my location would struggle to reach 40mph we ended up getting a short spell of 60 to 70mph as the Sting Jet passed over!

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Main feature here tonight will be the rain most likely. Local forecast doesn't have any outstanding gusts tonight. Tomorrow afternoon a different  story with gusts up to 59mph during the afternoon.

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Posted
  • Location: inter drumlin South Tyrone Blackwater river valley surrounded by the last last ice age...
  • Weather Preferences: jack frost
  • Location: inter drumlin South Tyrone Blackwater river valley surrounded by the last last ice age...

where I am has no met office warning .. but met eirrean has me amber for wind .. who do I believe ?

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Posted
  • Location: Wivenhoe, North East Essex, 2m asl
  • Location: Wivenhoe, North East Essex, 2m asl

I've noticed whenever significant storms are approaching that the Met Office gust predictions tend to downgrade in the 12 hours or so leading up to it, only yesterday evening it was predicting 55-65mph gusts as far inland as the London suburbs now it's only saying around 45mph, I'm not sure whether these latest readings can be entirely trusted. I remember 12 hours before St' Jude hit it said gusts for my location would struggle to reach 40mph we ended up getting a short spell of 60 to 70mph as the Sting Jet passed over!

Maybe Charlie Brooker's theory of using chaos as a means of controlling the population is spot on and now being rolled out to all Government organisations.

 

Tell them a bad storm is coming, downgrade it, downgrade it some more and when it turns out bad say that it went exactly as forecast. The public are left so bewildered that they don't know what to believe or who to trust.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/RGB/AIRMASS/WESTERNEUROPE/index.htm

 

WOW! Look at the cold front at the centre of the forming 'eye'....... that's ocean to tropopause....... no wonder that squall line is supposed to be so active!

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Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, high winds, thunder, snow
  • Location: Upminster, Essex

Well the BBC London lunchtime forecast was still forecasting 60mph inland gusts so very confused now considering the Met Office gust predictor is going for 45-50mph at best!

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Posted
  • Location: North of Falkirk
  • Weather Preferences: North Atlantic cyclogenesis
  • Location: North of Falkirk

No definitive clear slot showing up, no sting jet from what I can see?

attachicon.gifScreenshot_2015-01-14-16-55-46.png

 

Looks more like a sting jet than the example I show!

 

sting_jet.jpg

Edited by BurntFishTrousers
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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Getting wild now and very wet, not a nice drive home from work. 

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Posted
  • Location: Herts
  • Location: Herts

Well the BBC London lunchtime forecast was still forecasting 60mph inland gusts so very confused now considering the Met Office gust predictor is going for 45-50mph at best!

Don't take the MO prediction as gospel. They're normally, I find anyway, at least 5-10mph under the actual outcome.

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Posted
  • Location: NW Wales/Snowdonia 1002ft ASL
  • Location: NW Wales/Snowdonia 1002ft ASL

Gusts 60mph here now squally rain. Unless it goes 70+ then its nothing for this area really. Looks like it might make that overnight and into tomorrow though.

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Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, wind, storms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne

There was a sudden gust here, seemingly out of nowhere. Shook the windows, it's starting to go downhill rapidly here.

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