Atlantic Storm 14th - 15th January

[geoffw]

from the latest model predictions what kind of wind speeds should northern ireland be expecting for wednesday night?

[sunnijim]

just a snippet on the st Jude storm ,it had potential ,caused trouble across some southern and london area .but one of those occasions that crops up in meteorology ,its predicted path about 12/18hrs before had the low crossing uk slightly further north ,it did not develope so quickly .indeed i went outside during the night and the low crossed fairly close to my area with lovely clear star lit skies ,but this low DID cause damage ,further s/east ,this low midweek this week will cause many a head ache for the Met office and expect horror headlines in the press in the run up ,and i also expect some surprises as we get low 850 mb temp after the low exits ,interesting times for us storm lovers ,

As the crow flys it did cause massive problems, close to Eastern England (Denmark) 100mph + winds were recorded from ST Jude as it continued to deepen rapidly.So on a global scale the M.O were right to issue their warnings as it was nearly deadly in its impacts for our shores.

[Cookie]

But that gust of 113mph was the strongest on record in Stornoway so surely this warrants the term "incredible" even by their standards, and it was equally if not more powerful then the 1987 storm, but I guess you're right because it's not heavily populated up there there's less of an impact! 

 

 

90+ would be comparable to 1987 and the Burn's Day storms and I really don't think we want to go there do we?...

 

There was and has and still a massive impact on going here. it should have been a red warning. what would constitute a red warning then?! just cause it was over night didnt less the impact. 

[Mapantz]

from the latest model predictions what kind of wind speeds should northern ireland be expecting for wednesday night?

50 - 60mph expected, perhaps 70mph on the coasts, as it stands now of course.

[mickeyb44]

I will make do with 50-60, no downgrades please and a 30 mph upgrade would be fab but 99.9 % unlikely

[Wilxy]

I will make do with 50-60, no downgrades please and a 30 mph upgrade would be fab but 99.9 % unlikely

 

30mph upgrade? Are you sure that would be a good thing!

[Daniel*]

For inland areas, Southern England this is definitely looking worse than St Jude Storm. I recall the really big gusts were very isolated and mostly affecting coastal areas, meanwhile what we are looking at is much more expansive, and much longer lasting - there's been a slight upgrade in wind speeds to my untrained eye. So that is 24 hours - of high wind gust for C/S England this would do some damage.

[mickeyb44]

Nope, it would be utter chaos but, i love 'severe' weather.

If i went tornado chasing in the states i would have to be kept on a leash !

[legritter]

As the crow flys it did cause massive problems, close to Eastern England (Denmark) 100mph + winds were recorded from ST Jude as it continued to deepen rapidly.So on a global scale the M.O were right to issue their warnings as it was nearly deadly in its impacts for our shores.

yes you are very correct there ,timings, depth of low ,track ,whether its developing etc all very critical ,and of course we could have got the full force of it here .As i mentioned ,as the low passed over my area all seemed so weak and calm ,lovely twinkling stars ,but the beast had been born ,with europe as its target .interesting days ahead ,Fax charts will be interesting as we approach .

[alexisj9]

Wind warnings have been updated for Monday - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1420934400

Just look at the rain warnings for the SE, I think flood could become an issue also, weather has not been as extreme as last year for sure but it may well have similar impacts anyway.

[mickeyb44]

Yes, especially as Mr gibbs on the tv has said that there will also be a fair amount of rain tomorrow for the south. Add that to 20-40 mm from the storm and there will definitely be flooding.

[alexisj9]

St Jude = Officially the most overhyped storm in history, the storms in October 2000 and 2002 where both significantly stronger and longer lasting. A wind event that only lasts about 40 minutes can't even be warranted a Storm in my opinion, it was a freak squall nothing more!

Most of the admiralty pier is still closed after that storm, with wind peaking (for a short time admittedly) in the 80's. A mate of mine has been out of work since, and will be till the turret section is opened. He runs the cafe there.

[Liam J]

Been windy here since Thursday night with no let up, gusting to 40-50mph at least in the last few days, 70mph yesterday morning. A further increase is likely overnight with the next system 60mph+ on the cards and higher still for Scotland.

Edited January 11, 2015 by Liam J

[Mapantz]

Plenty of rain to come! Potential for 50mm to fall on lower levels quite widely this week, higher locally and perhaps exceeding 100mm over high ground.

[geoffw]

i thought northern irreland was expecting 90mph   gusts?

[bobbydog]

Been windy here since Thursday night with no let up, gusting to 40-50mph at least in the last few days, 70mph yesterday morning. A further increase is likely overnight with the next system 60mph+ on the cards and higher still for Scotland.

get yourself up scafell pike on wednesday night- in a tent. that'll be fun!!

[Liam J]

get yourself up scafell pike on wednesday night- in a tent. that'll be fun!!

LOL I'd have to be bonkers to do that! Would be fun though looking at my anemometer readings! 

[mountain shadow]

i thought northern irreland was expecting 90mph   gusts?

 

Perhaps 90mph in very exposed places and at altitude. Further there will be blizzard like conditions in hillier areas also. This storm has plenty of cold air wrapped in it and because of the depth of the storm the 850s level will be closer to the surface, so less chance of the air being modified.

 

Still another 48 hours of model output before a firm handle can be put on it.

 

Whatever the outcome, at least it won't be mild.

[radiohead]

i thought northern irreland was expecting 90mph   gusts?

 

The track would have to shift quite a bit north for that. On the current track, southwest Ireland, Wales and southwest England are in line for the strongest winds.

 

Still time for changes.

[Sussex Jules]

Not sure I expected that, is that mondays storm?

I have a feeling someone has gone continental in their units of measurement! Lol nice one Liam

[Sainsbo]

     

 

gust1.PNG

 

Someone's been practicing their photoshop skills?

[Liam J]

LOL just a bit of humour Bad joke.... Sorry

Edited January 11, 2015 by Liam J

[Liam J]

I have a feeling someone has gone continental in their units of measurement! Lol nice one Liam

LOL no it was in MPH.... Better be careful what I wish for!!

[Liam J]

On a more serious note things are looking interesting to say the least regarding midweek, any upgrades and it could become pretty serious indeed. 12z's next...

Edited January 11, 2015 by Liam J

[Summer Sun]

Thursdays storm could be proceeded by some snow in the north and Scotland, no mention of wind speeds for Thursday but Jay mentions it has the potential to cause disruption

 

http://youtu.be/iItWeWox0J4?t=2m2s