Atlantic Storm 14th - 15th January

[Liam J]

Met office wind map now showing maxes of just 30 mph south east, as I expected.

Now where has that interesting little feature for saturday gone....

Some of the outputs are showing double that and some! 60-70mph+ Still a way to go in resolving this one though as too much variation with track & depth across the models. 

[mickeyb44]

Eh? It is showing 70+ along the south coast and 60+ well inland

Hi Jules, im going by the latest meto wind map, nothing much above 30 mph

Could be out of date and change a lot next update but ive seen this happen all too many times now.

[Liam J]

Hi Jules, im going by the latest meto wind map, nothing much above 30 mph

Could be out of date and change a lot next update but ive seen this happen all too many times now.

I don't know which Meto wind map you are looking at?? I've just had a scan over the wind gust map and it's showing 50-60mph inland and 60-70mph+ along the south coast Wed into Thurs. 

[AdamStorm7891]

Hi Jules, im going by the latest meto wind map, nothing much above 30 mph

Could be out of date and change a lot next update but ive seen this happen all too many times now.

I'm still convinced you're looking at predicted mean winds (NOT) gusts.

 

However the latest update from GFS and there's been a noticeable downgrade!

 

[mickeyb44]

Woops, sorry guys - my bad, was looking at tuesday - wednesday.

Im so used to seeing downgrades I just did a few clicks then closed the browser window with a big sigh.

 

Hastings - 72mph at midnight (on meto wind map), now that almost qualifies as worthy to me

Edited January 11, 2015 by mickeyb44

[Liam J]

I don't know which Meto wind map you are looking at?? I've just had a scan over the wind gust map and it's showing 50-60mph inland and 60-70mph+ along the south coast Wed into Thurs. 

[Sussex Jules]

gust.PNG

Thanks Liam am on iPad so couldn't paste chart in.

[AdamStorm7891]

gust.PNG

Looks like we're in for a rough ride, any upgrades would certainly start getting concerning!

[mickeyb44]

Yes its still looking stormy, especially as im now looking at wind maps for the correct time period !! Sorry for that.

Edited January 11, 2015 by mickeyb44

[Liam J]

Thanks Liam am on iPad so couldn't paste chart in.

No probs 

 

Looks like we're in for a rough ride, any upgrades would certainly start getting concerning!

Yes, as it is the gusts being shown would cause some problems around 70mph or so, it was gusting 70mph here yesterday and let me tell you it wasn't pleasant! Very difficult driving and debris flying all over from trees etc! Spoke to my Mum and she said the cement/pebble dash has been stripped off her front wall. 

Edited January 11, 2015 by Liam J

[alexisj9]

Thank you for the updates. 

[Captain Shortwave]

Looking like wind gusts of between 60 and 70mph will be the likely outcome. Perhaps to coin a clichéd phrase, this does look like one of those "once a winter" type storms. Bad yes, but not to an extreme event level. I would expect this will bring yellow or perhaps amber warnings to a large part of the UK, most likely spots for the highest warnings being western and southern counties. 

Edited January 11, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[mickeyb44]

60-70 mph just about qualifies for the word 'storm' in my book, from imby point of view i would like upgrades but thats not likely.

Ive watched every gfs run on this since it started showing and next time I will not get too excited until the official warnings come out.

[Zenarcher]

Made up a quick map showing where the models place the center of the low at 1am on Thursday. Most of them do place it near the NW of Ireland at an average deepness of 953mb.

 

[AdamStorm7891]

Looking like wind gusts of between 60 and 70mph will be the likely outcome. Perhaps to coin a clichéd phrase, this does look like one of those "once a winter" type storms. Bad yes, but not to an extreme event level. I would expect this will bring yellow or perhaps amber warnings to a large part of the UK, most likely spots for the highest warnings being western and southern counties. 

No an extreme event is 80-90mph+ or if you like in the far north of Scotland 100mph+ lol   113mph at Stornoway the other day, why was only Amber warnings issued?  Surely RED warnings where warranted, there's no doubt there would have been had that been down South.

[shetland islands]

Looking like wind gusts of between 60 and 70mph will be the likely outcome. Perhaps to coin a clichéd phrase, this does look like one of those "once a winter" type storms. Bad yes, but not to an extreme event level. I would expect this will bring yellow or perhaps amber warnings to a large part of the UK, most likely spots for the highest warnings being western and southern counties.

I would agree. Not an extreme event (at the moment) 50-70mph can cause some minor problems to travel and trees. After having over 100mph winds here yesterday, it doesn't really compare.

And after last year, I would say some areas defences are more resilient.

[AdamStorm7891]

60-70 mph just about qualifies for the word 'storm' in my book, from imby point of view i would like upgrades but thats not likely.

Ive watched every gfs run on this since it started showing and next time I will not get too excited until the official warnings come out.

Well on the Beaufort Scale anything over 55mph qualifies as Storm Force 10.

[mickeyb44]

Yes in met terms, beaufort etc your right its storm force 10, but i always compare storms to those up north and western isles - thats my gauge. If we get 90+ forecast then i will be saying OMG a lot, lol.

[shetland islands]

No an extreme event is 80-90mph+ or if you like in the far north of Scotland 100mph+ lol   113mph at Stornoway the other day, why was only Amber warnings issued?  Surely RED warnings where warranted, there's no doubt there would have been had that been down South.

Shetland and the western islands are use to pretty extreme weather and are very resilient. The strength of these events are measured against any potential impact and then the necessary warnings are issued. I think something incredible would have to hit Shetland or western islands for the UKMO to issues a 'red' warning.

[Daniel*]

60-70 mph gusts for Home counties (densely populated) would warrant a amber warning no doubt about it.

[AdamStorm7891]

Shetland and the western islands are use to pretty extreme weather and are very resilient. The strength of these events are measured against any potential impact and then the necessary warnings are issued. I think something incredible would have to hit Shetland or western islands for the UKMO to issues a 'red' warning.

But that gust of 113mph was the strongest on record in Stornoway so surely this warrants the term "incredible" even by their standards, and it was equally if not more powerful then the 1987 storm, but I guess you're right because it's not heavily populated up there there's less of an impact! 

 

 

Yes in met terms, beaufort etc your right its storm force 10, but i always compare storms to those up north and western isles - thats my gauge. If we get 90+ forecast then i will be saying OMG a lot, lol.

90+ would be comparable to 1987 and the Burn's Day storms and I really don't think we want to go there do we?...

[Captain Shortwave]

But that gust of 113mph was the strongest on record in Stornoway so surely this warrants the term "incredible" even by their standards, and it was equally if not more powerful then the 1987 storm, but I guess you're right because it's not heavily populated up there there's less of an impact! 

 

 

90+ would be comparable to 1987 and the Burn's Day storms and I really don't think we want to go there do we?...

The highest record gust from the 1987 storm was 122mph at Gorleston on sea (East Norfolk). Burns day storm was 104 mph gusts. So this one is looking quite a fair way from it. As Daniel* says, the location of this storm will likely warrant an amber warning in the windiest areas. 

[mickeyb44]

Adam, the stormchaser in me wants 'severe anything' lol

I am somewhat obsessed by it all but, injury or deaths is not what anyone wants.

 

I would happily take a good lightning storm with stunning cloud formation over anything else though.

Edited January 11, 2015 by mickeyb44

[Terminal Moraine]

Looking at the latest runs I'm expecting gusts of 70-80 mph on the moors in my area which is on a par with Friday evening into Saturday morning; interesting but not exceptional.

As has been mentioned above the depression will be past the rapidly deepening stage by the time it reaches these shores and the most severe gales ( away from the far north west ) tend to result from features which are still in the rapid deepening phase as they cross the country.

There's still the potential for an exceptional event over inland areas of England and Wales but probably only a 30% chance judging by the latest output.   

[AdamStorm7891]

The highest record gust from the 1987 storm was 122mph at Gorleston on sea (East Norfolk). Burns day storm was 104 mph gusts. So this one is looking quite a fair way from it. As Daniel* says, the location of this storm will likely warrant an amber warning in the windiest areas. 

Yes it's true that 1987 saw gusts of 110-120mph+ in some coastal towns but inland it was more generally between 80-100mph so anything much above 70mph inland is really going some which doesn't seem out of the question for Wednesday night although I think 55-60mph will be the general rule of thumb. The fact that Shetland has seen gusts in the same territory as 1987 in recent days surely warranted a RED warning?  It's bordering on barbaric that no Red Warnings where issued, try telling those who have been without power for 3 days that Red Warnings shouldn't have been!