Atlantic Storm 14th - 15th January

[stubbys]

Looks like the southeast will miss out on anything decent again :-(

[stubbys]

And the gusts, as strong as it gets for south east. 50-60mph?

[Liam J]

And the gusts, as strong as it gets for south east. 50-60mph?

Closer to 70mph in the far SE on that chart. 

[stubbys]

Closer to 70mph in the far SE on that chart.

Cheers Liam, I am colour blind, red and green are not my specialty ;-)

[Cookie]

* jumps up and down*

 

we here are still keeping an eye on Monday morning. Still picking up the pieces across the Western Isles. Power slowly being restored. 

 

The work to fix damage will take much longer. However no reports of injuries! 

[Mapantz]

The BBC weather map looked interesting from what I could make out on Twitter. I'm sure it'll change though!

[alexisj9]

Indeed although not on the GFSP.

gfs181.png

Even that little wave on the gfsp can be vicious, it depends on how much the iso bars to the south tighten, both charts will certainly produce lot's of rain, and yet again the rivers are filling up.

[Liam J]

Both GFS models have gone back to tracking a 945-950mb low across the north bringing extremely windy conditions over much of the UK. 

 

Control run.

 

UKMO less severe and further south.

 

 

GEM also backs the GFS now although not just as deep but still bringing some severe winds.

 

 

Awaiting the ECM. 

Edited January 11, 2015 by Liam J

[Liam J]

A Closer look at the GFS & mean wind speeds in km/h, much of the UK would experience some very strong winds & gusts. 3 days away now so expect models to be firming up on track. Those in the south saying they won't get anything, the gust charts show 70mph+ along the S coast and 60mph+ inland. 70-80mph+ for parts of Wales, N England & S Scotland.

 

 

ECM less deep and a bit further south, so still some uncertainty on track but not a million miles apart. 

 

Edited January 11, 2015 by Liam J

[tinybill]

the low has deepened  over  night  now its 935  now we looking at some serious stuff!!!

[Weather-history]

the low has deepened over night now its 935 now we looking at some serious stuff!!!

I think you are looking at an extreme ensemble example there and taking it as a given.

Edited January 11, 2015 by Weather-history

[Nick F]

A Closer look at the GFS & mean wind speeds in km/h, much of the UK would experience some very strong winds & gusts. 3 days away now so expect models to be firming up on track. Those in the south saying they won't get anything, the gust charts show 70mph+ along the S coast and 60mph+ inland. 70-80mph+ for parts of Wales, N England & S Scotland.

 

 

Yep, looking at 00z GFS op progs, Wednesday night's low, for now, looking like it could inflict a widespread risk of 60-70mph gusts along/near the cold front, 70-80mph (80mph+ with exposure) in some places:

 

 

Behind the cold front, another swathe of strong winds 60-80mph on tight gradient of southern flank of low crossing Scotland could hit EIRE/N Ireland, central/N England Thurs morning.

 

 

Surely this low won't get any deeper?

[Liam J]

Yes Nick, looks fairly concerning doesn't it... Still a few days to go yet but confidence is now growing in track and a large majority of the 51 EPS members show a similar track to GFS OP & control runs and many look more intense by the looks if it than the ECM OP itself. 

Edited January 11, 2015 by Liam J

[mickeyb44]

Just my opinion, those 60 mph inland gusts for the south east - whats the betting they end up 30 mph !

Still, it looks like the more usual locations could get some very strong gusts worthy of at least a yellow warning soon.

[Liam J]

Storm a bit deeper on the 6z, similar position. 

 

At 96hrs it's further south.

 

 

Edited January 11, 2015 by Liam J

[Summer Sun]

GEFS has the low at 950mb

 

 

GFS P has the low peaking at 947mb

 

 

UKMO has it at 965mb

 

 

Whilst ECM also goes for 965mb

 

 

Still some very strong wind gusts on show from GFS P but not quite as strong as they were showing yesterday

 

 

[radiohead]

06Z GFS, deeper than the 0Z and further south.

 

Edited January 11, 2015 by radiohead

[AdamStorm7891]

06Z GFS, deeper than the 0Z and further south.

 

^^ This model gives the scariest scenario

 

But this 1 seems the most probable!

[mickeyb44]

Well im still finding this interesting, especially that gfsp chart showing the storm center several hundred miles away (500 ?) from other models.

[Liam J]

Both GFS models show a mature storm (past it's rapid developing phase) & filling as it crosses the UK, still with some very strong winds though. 

[mickeyb44]

Met office wind map now showing maxes of just 30 mph south east, as I expected.

Now where has that interesting little feature for saturday gone....

Edited January 11, 2015 by mickeyb44

[radiohead]

^^ This model gives the scariest scenario

 

But this 1 seems the most probable!

 

The low has started to fill by that point on the UKMO though, it would have been stronger at the same position where the GFS is earlier.

 

GFS and GFS(P) both have the low peaking out in the Atlantic which does take some of the "sting" out of it.

[Sussex Jules]

Met office wind map now showing maxes of just 30 mph south east, as I expected.

Now where has that interesting little feature for saturday gone....

Eh? It is showing 70+ along the south coast and 60+ well inland

[AdamStorm7891]

Met office wind map now showing maxes of just 30 mph south east, as I expected.

Now where has that interesting little feature for saturday gone....

Are you sure you're not looking at average (mean) winds there?  Gusts will be more like double that based on current graphs.

 

Winds look to peak at around midnight Wednesday into Thursday across the South-East with 60mph+ potentially in and around London and the Home Counties with coasts experiencing 75-80mph with a narrow band of 90mph+ showing out in the North-Sea just offshore from The Wash.

 

[Liam J]

Not a huge fan of the 6z & 18z runs from the GFS, I think they are lowest in verification stats? Best to compare the 00z & 12z runs rather than each consecutive run if you want general consensus (or not as the case may be)!! the 12z run will possibly be different again with positioning, but then compare that to yesterdays 12z to see if the pattern stays more or less the same? With 4 runs per day there is scope for a fair bit of variation.