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Atlantic Storm 14th - 15th January


Liam J

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Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, high winds, thunder, snow
  • Location: Upminster, Essex

BBC weather have increased the winds for Wednesday night and are indicating 2 spells with it peaking around midday Thursday.

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Good support from the 51 EPS members for the storm to track as per the op & GFS models. Still some variations in intensity but the majority go with a deep low. 

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Posted
  • Location: Crayford/Baker Street By Day
  • Location: Crayford/Baker Street By Day

What is the track now Liam lost the plot of it now lol. Basically is the southeast in for a hit

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Even though the centre of the storm looks like passing over the north giving storm force winds potentially, there could be a period of gales/severe gales sweeping much of the UK,

 

Mean wind speeds in KM/H. 

post-9615-0-00311000-1420924204_thumb.gipost-9615-0-58854700-1420924210_thumb.gipost-9615-0-11547000-1420924218_thumb.gi

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

I think the GFS upgraded parallel has lost the plot. Just look wrong.  Okay overall everything looks downgraded looking at the other runs.

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Certainly looked very menacing on the BBC graphic for later on Wednesday, obviously a level of uncertainty at this range but good agreement on track with EPS & GEFS. 

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

Sometimes misleading when viewing the ECM charts available as they are 24hrs apart. The crucial time is between 96-120hrs. The approaching depression is 965mb then 24 hours later it's 955mb which would suggest that it's still deepening as it crosses the UK, how deep we cannot see, perhaps 950mb? 

 

This is the ECM at 108 hours.

 

oYqHVJt.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

NMM12 for midweek, two periods of wind to look out for. severe southerly gales sweeping eastwards before the centre of the storm moves in with a second swathe. 

post-9615-0-83661100-1420925169_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-40565500-1420925177_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-91197300-1420925184_thumb.pn

 


This is the ECM at 108 hours.

 

oYqHVJt.jpg

Thank you, very windy for Ireland & S Scotland southwards.

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: East County Clare
  • Location: East County Clare

mickeyb44 don't put your camera away just yet

 

 

Exeter have modified GM to ensemble consensus (further north), albeit strongest winds remain as previous signal (W/NW/SW/S England; gusts widely to 50kts; stronger in exposure of course but not akin to recent Scottish storm).

From Fergie over on MOD thread

Edited by Sussex Jules
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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

mickeyb44 don't put your camera away just yet

 

From Fergie over on MOD thread

Gusts to 50kts = 58mph so they are deffo not going with anything as intense as the GFS evolution. Wonder if the GFS will downgrade in coming days? We shall see...

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: East County Clare
  • Location: East County Clare

Gusts to 50kts = 58mph so they are deffo not going with anything as intense as the GFS evolution. Wonder if the GFS will downgrade in coming days? We shall see...

Indeed Liam, Fax will be interesting tonight, he has also edited his post to read "W/NW/SW/S England"

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Posted
  • Location: East County Clare
  • Location: East County Clare

Thanks, nice to hear of poss 58 mph gusts.

I was hoping for a severe storm but I suppose its good news for less damage and disruption

Lol thanks but not thanks, but can almost understand your point of view!

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Well, what do we have here?

 

That is a surprising little feature and could be potentially vicious. 

 

gfs-0-72.png?18

Indeed although not on the GFSP.

post-9615-0-44604000-1420926868_thumb.pn

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Slightly further south on the GFS models. GFSP less intense at this stage.

 

post-9615-0-17897900-1420927206_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-98167600-1420927213_thumb.pn

 

As many were expecting a downgrade on the GFSP, very windy just not stormy. 

 

post-9615-0-67239600-1420927438_thumb.pn

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

The increased development of the preceding short-wave may have taken some energy from the development of the second wave. 

 

Be interesting to see how the first short-wave is modelled in the coming days, only 72hrs, but we could see it quickly being ramped up by the models in the next few runs, or just disregarded.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

I think we can forget about a sub-940mb super-storm at this stage, but confidence is increasing in a more common, but still potent, winter storm with the potential for severe gales and damaging gusts in places. It will take a couple more days to nail down the details of where and exactly how strong.

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Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland

Both the GFS models look similar to the 12z ECM in terms of where it goes we just need the other models to start agreeing now but this may not happen until tomorrow or at least Monday.

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