Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...

[Catacol]

When was that?

 

We had a very localised red warning put out for the Somerset/Devon border in early July - either 2011 or 2012 - I dont remember. It was the night of a Summer Ball here at work. To be honest it seemed an over the top warning. We got heavy rain that night, but nothing more than that, and no major flooding really. I thought at the time it was a bit odd. I reported it to the Ball organisers who shrugged their shoulders and everything went ahead as normal in the rain. Nothing occurred that night that was newsworthy as far as I was aware. I would suggest it was a red warning that was put out when amber would have been better. An example of a red warning that wasnt "severe" in the way that I would define severe.

[That ECM]

When was that?

Not sure of the exact date 2010 red warning for snow, Dorset area. It ended up making a semi circle around us and places like Basingstoke got loads. I am over it now tho honest.........

[shaky]

The last red warning i had was january 2013 when a front coming in from the atlantic smashed into a wall of cold air coming in from the east and created crazy snowfalls across much of the midlands and southern England! !!boy what i would do to see an event like that again!! Mind you i appreciated every single minute of that snowfall knowing that we might not get an event like that for another few years!

[Winter Cold]

Thanks for clarification Jo and Ian

 

It just shows you that not all storms get downgraded on the models. Yes it happens frequently, but sometimes they do pick up on the correct severity. These storms were shown days ago, and quite rightly a lot of ppl said dont worry, they usualy downgrade. Will be interesting to watch next weeks potential storms (shown on GFS/ECM around 15th tonight) count down on the models and see whether that stays strong . You would think its also got a chance to be with the strong jet!

[Jo Farrow]

Not sure of the exact date 2010 red warning for snow, Dorset area. It ended up making a semi circle around us and places like Basingstoke got loads. I am over it now tho honest.........

lol

[fergieweather]

We had a very localised red warning put out for the Somerset/Devon border in early July - either 2011 or 2012 - I dont remember. It was the night of a Summer Ball here at work. To be honest it seemed an over the top warning. We got heavy rain that night, but nothing more than that, and no major flooding really. I thought at the time it was a bit odd. I reported it to the Ball organisers who shrugged their shoulders and everything went ahead as normal in the rain. Nothing occurred that night that was newsworthy as far as I was aware. I would suggest it was a red warning that was put out when amber would have been better. An example of a red warning that wasnt "severe" in the way that I would define severe.

Incorrect imo. I know that event very well on 7 July 2012 (I was on duty and broadcast the warning) and it resulted in the death that night of two people at Beaminster, Dorset, in a tunnel entrance landslip caused by the exceptionally heavy rain. The red was issued because FWC hydrologists advised grave concern over ground preconditioning versus forecast PPN accumulation. Sadly, they were right. Bear in mind you can't localise the red warning until we actually see radar returns in real time...PWS had to go with a pragmatic solution and emphasise the very real concern.

[Chris K]

We had a very localised red warning put out for the Somerset/Devon border in early July - either 2011 or 2012 - I dont remember. It was the night of a Summer Ball here at work. To be honest it seemed an over the top warning. We got heavy rain that night, but nothing more than that, and no major flooding really. I thought at the time it was a bit odd. I reported it to the Ball organisers who shrugged their shoulders and everything went ahead as normal in the rain. Nothing occurred that night that was newsworthy as far as I was aware. I would suggest it was a red warning that was put out when amber would have been better. An example of a red warning that wasnt "severe" in the way that I would define severe.

 

 

Here we go...have a read.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/education/teens/case-studies/july-flooding-2012

Justified in my opinion.

 

PS - Even though it is under the "teens" section in the education area - it is an interesting area to visit for case studies!

Edited January 7, 2015 by Chris K

[fergieweather]

Just out of curiosity, if these predicted wind speeds were forcast further south (say midlands south to london) i would imaging we may already have a red warning as any bit of bad weather down south seems to get get more warnings and news coverage.... why may this be the case??

Impact-based. The potential lethality of gusts to 100+mph over any highly populous part of England needs little further explanation... yes, it would go to red.

[ANYWEATHER]

A poor set of runs tonight im afraid, nothing much to see around mid-month on this set. They have all gone flat so no ridging in the Atlantic. We now get another tease at the end of GFS(P) but once again anything seems to me to have been moved back.

The positives to take though are that there is always some playing about with the pattern on each set of runs now, so there is obviously a signal for change. We wont know what will happen of course yet, but id bet we will get something more interesting from mid-month onwards than whats being shown tonight.

 

Just an aside - What does it take to get a red warning from the met?? Models have clearly shown this storm for days now and BBC weather just showed 100mph winds for Scotland and it gets amber? Really?

If you love the weather as most people do on here, I really don't see anything as poor on tonights models. Something for everyone tonight, and Im not just talking about the North! Sun, rain, thunder. hail, sleet ,snow, and stormy winds, with a very strong wind chill at times ,along with some quieter spells to allow Jack Frost to roam around! Ok its not deep cold or a prolonged spell of cold settled weather, but it screams WINTER to me,

as regards Scotland not having a red warning for 100 mph winds is for the simple reason is time of day etc and just for the fact that Hardly anyone lives in the North of Scotland, so infrastructure is of less concern , anyway the hardy Northern folks are really used to the Winter storms, nothing unusual about this one, its happened before.....

[Daniel*]

The last red warning i had was january 2013 when a front coming in from the atlantic smashed into a wall of cold air coming in from the east and created crazy snowfalls across much of the midlands and southern England! !!boy what i would do to see an event like that again!! Mind you i appreciated every single minute of that snowfall knowing that we might not get an event like that for another few years!

it was just a little pocket in the welsh valleys...last red warning was regarding wind. Looks much more severe, in comparison, I'm 95% sure an red warning will be issued for the far NW. Fasten down the hatches.

January 2013

February 2014

[Jo Farrow]

Most updates come out at 11am from the Met Office to their yellow/amber warnings, so don't expect anything red before that tomorrow. 

[nick sussex]

IMO theres no red warning as yet because the area of most destructive winds is quite narrow. A deviation in track which could still occur might keep these out at sea, however a more southerly track would likely lead to a red warning especially if theres any further deepening.

 

I'm sure the Scots in that region are pretty savvy anyway and keep up to date with events and are used to storms.

 

It's always these small lows that turn out to be nightmares.

[Liam J]

as regards Scotland not having a red warning for 100 mph winds is for the simple reason is time of day etc and just for the fact that Hardly anyone lives in the North of Scotland, so infrastructure is of less concern , anyway the hardy Northern folks are really used to the Winter storms, nothing unusual about this one, its happened before.....

I disagree, what is being modelled is an exceptional event even by Scotlands standards, potential gusts in excess of 100mph is not your average winter storm IMO. I am expecting a red warning will be issued at some point tomorrow for this windstorm. 

 

Anyway this thread has been de-railed enough, we have a thread running to discuss the stormy weather over the next few days - https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82152-atlantic-storms-january-2015/page-15#entry3108396 

Edited January 7, 2015 by Liam J

[fergieweather]

IMO theres no red warning as yet because the area of most destructive winds is quite narrow.

Spot-on Nick. The potential for, and modelled areal spread of, any sting jet development are very critical in terms of escalation.

[snowangel32]

Hi Ian if i remember rightly a sting jet is a secondary low how quick can this be picked up and what areas is it likely to effect.

Sorry Nick beat me to it.

Edited January 7, 2015 by snowangel32

[doctor32]

Impact-based. The potential lethality of gusts to 100+mph over any highly populous part of England needs little further explanation... yes, it would go to red.

 

Thanks for the clarification... and valued insight to weather based knowledge of which otherwise i would have no idea sometimes. hoping my part of the uk will see some snow next week from possible low pressure moving abit further south within a cold zonal pattern as latest ecm run shows @ 192h

 

 

 

That is Durham, forgot to mention where i live.

Edited January 7, 2015 by doctor32

[Cheese Rice]

When was that?

February 2nd 2009- Red warning in place for central northern England. Weather system was pushing up from the south east. It became pretty clear at around 4pm that the associated precipitation was averaging around 1mm p/h yet the red warning stated "a danger to Life" with a risk of "blizzards" and "disruption to power lines". The warning was in place for ground above 200m. The front never intensified resulting in 14 hours of continuous light at times moderate snowfall. About 15cm fell.

Thursday 2nd December- Only an Amber warning for the Sheffield area when a Red warning was required. 38cm of snow fell in the centre of Sheffield. Deepest December snowfal since records began in 1882

[bluearmy]

not quite as promising as the late December in the lead up but perhaps a bit better to follow ?

.

Edited January 7, 2015 by bluearmy

[nick sussex]

Spot-on Nick. The potential for, and modelled areal spread of, any sting jet development are very critical in terms of escalation.

Thanks, I do hope this low tracks much further north. I was just comparing the fax chart for the infamous storm we had here in January 2009 to the one for midnight tomorrow and its really quite frightening given the latter looks worse.

[Paul]

Just wanting to steer this back to the models if we can please - understand the warnings etc are interlinked to a point but probably best we keep that discussion more separate, especially as we have a dedicated thread for the upcoming stormy period here:

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82152-severe-atlantic-storms-8-10th-january/page-15#entry3108413

[karlos1983]

Not sure of the exact date 2010 red warning for snow, Dorset area. It ended up making a semi circle around us and places like Basingstoke got loads. I am over it now tho honest.........

I remember that well and I am definitely not over that! Everywhere around Dorset got burried in snow in the south, not a flake for me.

[Mucka]

I can assure you it has been discussed and remains under close scrutiny; further upgrade may yet occur. It's such a key weather event this winter (the windiest period so far), with prospect as you rightly say of 100(+)mph gusts and clear sting jet potential (more especially with the first feature Thurs night). The second storm brings a wider swathe of 50+kt gusts across a broader area of the UK. Some here have focused on snow for Sat, which self-evidently is almost by-the-by in terms of core emphasis; much of the ground will be wet from previous low passage, limiting low-level accumulation anyway but it's one broadly for northern areas in any case. For sure, bothersome snow over higher ground early Sat with blizzards possible, but irrelevant in the south versus the blustery set-up. Either way, as EC-EFI output clearly signposts, this will prove a newsworthily stormy phase in the far north and the warnings remain under detailed review.

 

You say that but storms are ten a penny in the North and it will be just another windy day in Manchester - granted it will be more than just another storm further North though. Thing is though for most in Northern England the wind will be trivial compared to any snow and snow events that would be the end of the world down South often go unnoticed or get trivialised further North. You wouldn't believe large parts of Sheffield had deep lying snow Christmas period if you were trapped in the media bubble.

 

Quite possible that roads will be closed again in that area due to snowfall and trust me when I say the way you prioritise weather events for them won't define their reality.

Edited January 7, 2015 by Mucka

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I have seen a forecast back n September pinpointing this period exactly to 8-12 as ferocious storms for Scotland and Northern Ireland 

 

 

BFTP

Edited January 7, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[ANYWEATHER]

I disagree, what is being modelled is an exceptional event even by Scotlands standards, potential gusts in excess of 100mph is not your average winter storm IMO. I am expecting a red warning will be issued at some point tomorrow for this windstorm. 

 

Anyway this thread has been de-railed enough, we have a thread running to discuss the stormy weather over the next few days - https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82152-atlantic-storms-january-2015/page-15#entry3108396 

Well ,lets disagree , its happened before ,it will happen again, with the absolute  amount of data we have ,Scotland has indeed experienced storms Aka in years gone by. and with the level of monitoring and recording is at an all time high nothing is new...

[fergieweather]

You say that but storms are ten a penny in the North and it will be just another windy day in Manchester - granted it will be more than just another storm further North though. Thing is though for most in Northern England the wind will be trivial compared to any snow and snow events that would be the end of the world down South often go unnoticed or get trivialised further North. You wouldn't believe large parts of Sheffield had deep lying snow Christmas period if you were trapped in the media bubble.

 

Quite possible that roads will be closed again in that area due to snowfall and trust me when I say the way you prioritise weather events for them won't define their reality.

Hi Mucka, sure: take your point, but as it stands we expect the fast frontal (and post-frontal shower) movement to help prevent anything too troubling at lower levels (1-3cm typically for N Wales/N England) but 5-10cm over uplands which, combined with the winds, could indeed be a pain (trans-Pennines for example). E4 offers higher totals but these are considered overdone, because that model is prone to synthesising overly-large showers (a known bias). Cheers.