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Paul

Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...

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The ideal scenario would be the slider LP bringing snow to those in the W followed by biting E,lys bringing snow showers into the E. That way everyone is happy, or nearly everyone!

 

Have to laugh though. Back in late Dec, early Jan I was suggesting it would turn colder from mid Jan especially into the 3rd week. I then apologised around a week ago for being wrong and even suggested I should stick to my other hobby of watercolour painting. Obviously my reverse psychology worked!

 

Erm NO ! The ideal scenario is a channel low - which almost guarantees snow along the south coast provided the low is shaped correctly.  :D

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Erm NO ! The ideal scenario is a channel low - which almost guarantees snow along the south coast provided the low is shaped correctly.  :D

 

Boxing day was very good, although sweet spot was north of here, but still good, 850's I'm sure were not that low, around -2 to -3

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The ideal scenario would be the slider LP bringing snow to those in the W followed by biting E,lys bringing snow showers into the E. That way everyone is happy, or nearly everyone!

 

Have to laugh though. Back in late Dec, early Jan I was suggesting it would turn colder from mid Jan especially into the 3rd week. I then apologised around a week ago for being wrong and even suggested I should stick to my other hobby of watercolour painting. Obviously my reverse psychology worked!

That would be the perfect outcome and will stop the thread and forum in general from descending into too much IMBYISM. It's interesting that Ian F mentioned that the UKMO have put the model changes down to the MJO, I wonder whether the dynamical models were less than accurate and the statistical ones were more on the money.

 

I remember a few days back someone posting that the MJO was strongest it had been for many years and perhaps that didn't correlate with a quick entry into the COD from its phase 6 location.

 

Maybe I'm barking up the wrong tree but its evident that some of the NWP were slow to pick up on that signal and hence why we saw that accelerating trend once they did in terms of synoptics.

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Erm NO ! The ideal scenario is a channel low - which almost guarantees snow along the south coast provided the low is shaped correctly.  :D

Agree,these slider's nearly always mean rain for here.

It's channel low or no show for here usually.

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Agree,these slider's nearly always mean rain for here.

It's channel low or no show for here usually.

How about a strong ese flow? I've seen that deliver some snow showers to your area. Its amazing the difference just that small switch from ene to ese can make for that part of Cornwall.

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Agree,these slider's nearly always mean rain for here.

It's channel low or no show for here usually.

 

Sliders have to be just on right angle, the Slider of 14th Jan 2013 failed here, but didnt matter cos on the Friday after I had a snowfest (18th Jan)

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Meanwhile.......before the cold ...my shed will have to be re-positioned not for the first time this winter.

 

 

 

 

   EUMETSAT_MSG_RGB-naturalcolor-westernEur

Edited by winterof79

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Some posts are straying a little off topic and IMBY.. A kind request to keep to Model Discussion please as not to clutter the thread up, Especially during this busy up-coming period.

 

Many Thanks, PM.

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I really hope these charts for next week turn out, not had snow here on E coast for nigh on 2yrs...getting a bit excited...but not too much, i am a reallist after all...

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I'm happy because I've done a lot of cold ramping since Dec 1st and it's about to pay off big time if the latest met office outlook verifies, I hope the 12z run keeps churning out those gorgeous wintry charts.. coldies have waited so long for this..

 

indeed karl, but this time you are more justified for doing so as it WILL get much colder, and we are likely to see snow across most if not all the uk in some form, at some time.

of course nothing is yet set in stone, this could be a cold snap, or could evolve into something of note. interesting times ahead..

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The further north and east you are next week the better chance you have of seeing some snow looking at GFS P

 

Widespread snow in Scotland to start next week maybe even some light falls as far south as Dartmoor

 

144-780PUK.GIF?13-6

 

By Tuesday the snow in the eastern side of the UK gradually spreads further south towards Humberside and perhaps some light falls in parts of Norfolk

 

168-780PUK.GIF?13-6

 

By Wednesday the snow becomes more widespread in the east

 

192-780PUK.GIF?13-6

 

By Thursday some parts of the east (humberside north) could have around 3 inches of snow whilst parts of Kent could also see some light snow, parts of Scotland particularly around the Cairngorms could have around 15 inches

 

216-780PUK.GIF?13-6

 

The final chart takes us to next Friday and the snow in Kent becomes more widespread

 

240-780PUK.GIF?13-6

 

After 1 and a half winters of waiting for snow the wait for some of us in the north and east could be over by this time next week

 

giphy.gif

Edited by Summer Sun

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Am i right in thinking the charts are showing a possibility of a low running across the south coast on saturday and into sunday night? How much chance has this got of happening and if it did how much snow would it produce? Also if it goes further north can the south expect rain? 

One more question, what were the 850s like in 2010? did we have similar to -6/-8 or was it more like -10? 

 

Sorry for all the questions (Still learning)

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A slight aside from the current excitement, regarding the oft maligned GFS. I made an almost jokey post on January 1st regarding some synoptics GFS was showing way out in deep FI (post is here: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82124-model-output-discussion-into-2015/?view=findpost&p=3104614). The particular chart was:

 

attachicon.gifRtavn3721.gif

 

Comparing that with current output, for the exact same timeframe:

 

attachicon.gifRtavn661.gif

 

Not a perfect match but not bad. Roll it on 24 hours and the match is better:

 

attachicon.gifRtavn901.gif

 

I'd say that's pretty impressive really. I know one swallow doesn't make a summer, but I thought it was still worth a mention.

Holds potential for its new replacement!

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The further north and east you are next week the better chance you have of seeing some snow looking at GFS P

 

Widespread snow in Scotland to start next week maybe even some light falls as far south as Dartmoor

 

144-780PUK.GIF?13-6

 

By Tuesday the snow in the eastern side of the UK gradually spreads further south towards Humberside and perhaps some light falls in parts of Norfolk

 

168-780PUK.GIF?13-6

 

By Wednesday the snow becomes more widespread in the east

 

192-780PUK.GIF?13-6

 

By Thursday some parts of the east (humberside north) could have around 3 inches of snow whilst parts of Kent could also see some light snow, parts of Scotland particularly around the Cairngorms could have around 15 inches

 

216-780PUK.GIF?13-6

 

The final chart takes us to next Friday and the snow in Kent becomes more widespread

 

240-780PUK.GIF?13-6

 

After 1 and a half winters of waiting for snow the wait for some of us in the north and east could be over by this time next week

 

giphy.gif

 

Annoying that Isle of Man looks completely snowless on those charts

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Am i right in thinking the charts are showing a possibility of a low running across the south coast on saturday and into sunday night? How much chance has this got of happening and if it did how much snow would it produce? Also if it goes further north can the south expect rain? 

One more question, what were the 850s like in 2010? did we have similar to -6/-8 or was it more like -10? 

 

Sorry for all the questions (Still learning)

 

I am certainly keeping an eye on Saturday for the south. The ECM precipitation charts show some quite widespread showers, and seeing as the ECM usually underdoes shower activity it might be interesting for some. However, temperatures are looking a little on the marginal side so coastal areas would be at a significant disadvantage. I doubt we would be looking at a great deal of settling snow as unfortunately it arrives during the day time.

 

By the way, would you mind popping your location into your profile? It would enable us to better answer your questions :)

 

Edit: Not just the south either, the Midlands might get a sprinkling too!

Edited by Nick L

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Annoying that Isle of Man looks completely snow-less on those charts

 

Unfortunately temperatures for the IOM are shown to be around 4c to 6c by day next week, the top of Snaefell may get some snow though given its around 2000ft above sea level

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I am certainly keeping an eye on Saturday for the south. The ECM precipitation charts show some quite widespread showers, and seeing as the ECM usually underdoes shower activity it might be interesting for some. However, temperatures are looking a little on the marginal side so coastal areas would be at a significant disadvantage. I doubt we would be looking at a great deal of settling snow as unfortunately it arrives during the day time.

 

By the way, would you mind popping your location into your profile? It would enable us to better answer your questions :)

 

Edit: Not just the south either, the Midlands might get a sprinkling too!

 

Are the ECM PPN charts available to the public?

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Don't take any notice of the temp charts from GFS, the resolution is poor and anything near the coast invariably gets the temp over the sea rather than the land. That is why in periods like the one approaching the SE can often say 3-4C even when in reality it is 0c

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Are the ECM PPN charts available to the public?

 

Unfortunately most of the PPN charts for ECM are paid-for only. You can get snippets like winterof79 has shown above. I have access to most of the ECM data so I'll be able to relay any interesting info :)

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So after a brief stormy interlude it looks 99% certain the UK will slide into winter proper through this weekend and beyond.

Given that details are impossible due to the complex nature of the pattern I will concentrate more on the basic set up.

The original Easterly with toppling Atlantic ridge joining with heights to NE has pretty much been scrapped in favour of a cold trough and low pressure repeatedly sliding across the UK.

Cold or very cold with a second Atlantic ridge and any East NE flow likely the result of sinking low pressure in this period.

Snow could be widespread at times and fall just about anywhere but any snow forecast will be dependent on the behaviour and character of the sliders, how far West, how full, S or SE track etc but what we do know is there will very likely be one or two bouts of more widespread ppn which will almost certainly fall as sleet or snow even to low levels although the SW and far W could see more of a wintry mix of rain/sleet/snow but details...

 

The cold looks likely to last to at least 22/23rd Jan whereafter the pattern will be determined by what happens with the Second Atlantic ridge.

We could get a repeat pattern setting up which would give the UK a rare prolonged cold snowy spell or it could topple favorably giving an Easterly as was originally modelled for upcoming spell or it could flatten into Europe with the jet over the top bringing back more typical zonal conditions. The last option is highly favoured in ensemble output at the moment but but as others have pointed out, let's get the cold in and worry about FI later. Also we have seen that proper cold spells have a tendancy to get stretched out further than models predict.

 

I think we will all be grateful and happy with a 6-8 day cold spell anyway given how many times this Winter has been written off by overly frustrated coldies.

 

The cold zonal leading into this weekend has been a bit disappointing for myself though I have seen snow fall at least. The upcomming spell promises whole different kettle of fish.

Happy days!

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New thread coming in a moment for the 12z runs...

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