Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...

[bluearmy]

That low res gfsp is very plausible wrt to the ecm extended ens. It fits quite well.

[Frosty.]

Certainly a hard road to cold this January...

What on earth are you talking about? most of next week looks cold and wintry with lots of snow potential, frost, ice and snow will feature in the forecasts next week according to the Gfs charts I posted above. The met office are also forecasting cold and showery weather for most of next week.

[Mark Bayley]

Interesting last frames of the GFSp. If only those lows tracked a little further south.. There seems to be trend, towards the last third of the month, for a relaxation of the PV to our north, allowing the possibility of height rises and a route to cold. The GFS (and to a lesser extent, GFSbc) are still keen on the MJO progressing through to phase 7/8, whereas the ECM and UKMO (ensemble) have tropical convection dying a death as it crosses the western Pacific, entering the 'circle of death'. There has been greater movement towards the GFS solution of the carrying the MJO through to phase 7 (ECM previously restricted to phase 5), with the JMA and UKMO (deterministic) progressing into phase 7, although of lower amplitude. As alluded to by other posters, progression of topical convection (to MJO phase 7) teleconnects to increased ridging in the mid-Atlantic, as illustrated by recent GFS runs, and the latest ECM. So far this may seem to be transient. However, with a possible decrease in the strength of the PV to our north the possibility of something a colder increases towards the last 1/3 of January and into February

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml 

Edited January 7, 2015 by Mark Bayley

[mulzy]

What on earth are you talking about? most of next week looks cold and wintry with lots of snow potential, frost, ice and snow will feature in the forecasts next week according to the Gfs charts I posted above. The met office are also forecasting cold and showery weather for most of next week.

 

So what will your CET anomaly prediction will be for next week?  To me, it looks like average or even slightly above average...

[IDO]

What on earth are you talking about? most of next week looks cold and wintry with lots of snow potential, frost, ice and snow will feature in the forecasts next week according to the Gfs charts I posted above. The met office are also forecasting cold and showery weather for most of next week.

 

Not much cold for most. Of course as with a PM flow some will be favoured, but realistically most won't. London next 8 days:

 

 

Probably work out slightly higher than average temps for the next 8 days for IMBY.

[Captain Shortwave]

What on earth are you talking about? most of next week looks cold and wintry with lots of snow potential, frost, ice and snow will feature in the forecasts next week according to the Gfs charts I posted above. The met office are also forecasting cold and showery weather for most of next week.

Temperature anomaly charts were posted earlier today showing that most of the UK will be seeing above average temperatures overall for the next 7/8 days, the exception being areas such as the highlands. Of course average conditions can deliver snowfall to north western areas during the middle of winter. Nothing unusual. 

Edited January 7, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[IDO]

Anyway the GFS Control is also interesting in FI: 

 

Not for specifics, but further signs of the zonal flow waning to allow wedges of heights mid-high lat.

Edited January 7, 2015 by Paul

[mulzy]

Temperature anomaly charts were posted earlier today showing that most of the UK will be seeing above average temperatures overall for the next 7/8 days, the exception being areas such as the highlands. Of course average conditions can deliver snowfall to north western areas during the middle of winter. Nothing unusual. 

 

Absolutely - above average to average for the vast majority for the next eight days

 

 

 

Some of the cold ramping on here borders on the ridiculous!

Edited January 7, 2015 by mulzy

[ANYWEATHER]

As early as Saturday, there is the potential of some fairly widespread wintry weather for a short time given a rather potent cold front ,which moves fairly swiftly southeast with a dramatic drop in temperatures, dewpoints in picticular look favourable for something wintry falling out of the sky ,given enough heavier precip.. Given the the general West/ northwest direction its not only the north and west that will see some wintry weather but showers moving through the Cheshire gap ,may well give some rain ,hail and thunder, sleet and snow for some in the Midlands and Southeast England, and interesting day I feel for a while....although albeit short lived

Edited January 7, 2015 by ANYWEATHER

[IDO]

Hi. Dublin 850s for you: 

 

Looking at them for the 16 days and pretty average as a whole. A period where uppers are below the 30 year average but nothing unusual. In fact just normal January weather. With regard to snow, that could all change as it looks borderline to me and if the lows blow up the warm sectors will prevent more sustained snow. However with a bit of luck you may get a covering, especially if you have a good ASL.

 

To be honest the most dramatic weather is the two storms Friday and Saturday. Latest Friday warning:

 

 courtesy: BBC

[Pat Kennedy]

Not looking good long term for people who like cold weather but things can change rapidly as you all know, but it seems looking at the various models that the Atlantic is in control.  

[gottolovethisweather]

As early as Saturday, there is the potential of some fairly widespread wintry weather for a short time given a rather potent cold front ,which moves fairly swiftly southeast with a dramatic drop in temperatures, dewpoints in picticular look favourable for something wintry falling out of the sky ,given enough heavier precip.. Given the the general northwest direction its not only the north and west that will see some wintry weather but showers moving through the Cheshire gap ,may well give some rain ,hail and thunder, sleet and snow for some in the Midlands and Southeast England, and interesting day I feel for a while....although albeit short lived

 

Indeed. Precisely as Nick F also alluded to earlier here.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82208-model-output-discussion-stormy-period-inbound/?p=3108170

 

I'd also suggested that the dizzy heights of 13c to 14c forecast for Friday should never be reached thereafter. In fact, I'm expecting a trend which should gather momentum towards seeing Temperatures Average or slightly to much below by day for most of the UK from next Monday onwards.

 

My post from before being repeated below.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82208-model-output-discussion-stormy-period-inbound/?p=3108079 

 

 

Now if we could now please stop the tooing and froing of personal opinions in here and stick to Model Output Discussion, the aforementioned posts might have not been missed amongst the rest of the discussion which is simply point-scoring ego baiting stuff and doesn't seek to aid those folk who are unsure as to what the future weather holds for them. 

Edited January 7, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[MR EXTREMES]

Well I posted earlier I live on the sunny or not so sunny " Costa del south coast "

And for my point of view there is some very cold air bottled up to the nw around Greenland and ne States.

Firstly possibility of heights building in the ne States although nothing to strong but enough to disrupt the pattern possibly.

Secondly as has been stated by many there will be milder air at times in the south but not days and days of above average,

so much so that I'd be suprised with this current setup we have now that jan cet could come out as average for the south and slightly below for the North.

But I suspect the cet will end average for us in the south,

But there's even some cold for the south nothing sustained or substantial here in the south !.

But further north is a different ball game there's extreme wind rain snow and as time goes on these wintry spell will become more frequent further north.

All models suggest this but as the ecm stands as top dog in the stats race it would be the model for further on but gfs ukmo even jma shorter term but the over all picture is that things are not set to change dramatically for a couple of weeks!.

And the amount of times I've herd national forecast mention uncertainty on track of developments this winter just proves the volatile nature of the weather at this point.

[Captain Shortwave]

JMA similar to the GFS at day 8 with the storm blows up in the Atlantic

 

ECM looks better at the same stage

Not much develops beyond this point as pressure remains low to our north west. So just a mix of milder and cooler periods of weather with temperatures near or a little above average overall. Of course the cooler periods could bring wintry showers to areas exposed to the west/north westerly winds.

Edited January 7, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[mulzy]

ECM also pretty flat.  No real amplification on this run.

 

[Paul]

Just moved a whole bunch of posts into the model banter thread as arguing over the merits of imby type posts is not model discussion:

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81281-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-autumnwinter-201415/

 

For what it's worth - no-one ought to expect total neutrality from everyone using this thread when it comes to either weather preferences, location bias or whatever - this is an open discussion forum. I'm sure most people understand that too, so aren't going to be unduly confused if for instance someone from Scotland is rather more focused on the upcoming stormy winds and potential snow than someone from Jersey may be. 

[Winter Cold]

A poor set of runs tonight im afraid, nothing much to see around mid-month on this set. They have all gone flat so no ridging in the Atlantic. We now get another tease at the end of GFS(P) but once again anything seems to me to have been moved back.

The positives to take though are that there is always some playing about with the pattern on each set of runs now, so there is obviously a signal for change. We wont know what will happen of course yet, but id bet we will get something more interesting from mid-month onwards than whats being shown tonight.

 

Just an aside - What does it take to get a red warning from the met?? Models have clearly shown this storm for days now and BBC weather just showed 100mph winds for Scotland and it gets amber? Really?

[Cheese Rice]

Maybe I'm misreading the charts but the pattern looks to turn increasingly amplified around the 15th.

Looks very interesting for the Northern Half of Britian, wintry with the risk of southerly tracking lows.

For the south its not so interesting, cool, dull and wet.

[Timmytour]

Fascinating to look at the short term at the moment.... quite a lot of movement from run to run on the position as it affects the UK, though nothing so drastic that any kind of pattern change can be read from it.

To me the Azores high seems a lit like a trampoline rather than a solid blocking feature to the South......I think the low pressure to the NW of us will eventually come a lot further south than currently modelled, perhaps as far south as the Scotland England border, before bouncing back up off the Azores high.  i think this was trending a little in the last couple of runs but not so just going by the last run. Wouldn't be unusual for a couple of runs to show something on GFS, a futher run miss it out only for later runs to bring it back. I think that's what will happen on a small scale in the short term. I hope that what will happen on a larger scale in the longer term regarding the potential for cold that was being shown 

[Jo Farrow]

A poor set of runs tonight im afraid, nothing much to see around mid-month on this set. They have all gone flat so no ridging in the Atlantic. We now get another tease at the end of GFS(P) but once again anything seems to me to have been moved back.

The positives to take though are that there is always some playing about with the pattern on each set of runs now, so there is obviously a signal for change. We wont know what will happen of course yet, but id bet we will get something more interesting from mid-month onwards than whats being shown tonight.

 

Just an aside - What does it take to get a red warning from the met?? Models have clearly shown this storm for days now and BBC weather just showed 100mph winds for Scotland and it gets amber? Really?

The Met Office really have to wait to see the whites of its eyes for a red,as the procedures it sets are huge. It means STAY INDOORS. and the impacts are severe. Areas should essentially close down. The Amber warning is severe in its self but an actual red means do not go out at all, roads close, trains, planes etc stop. I would imagine if confidence is high, something would come out by 6pm Thurs to catch the News broadcasts hopefully, let people get home and then know to stay in all night and NOT venture out. 

[Cheese Rice]

The Met Office really have to wait to see the whites of its eyes for a red,as the procedures it sets are huge. It means STAY INDOORS. and the impacts are severe. Areas should essentially close down. The Amber warning is severe in its self but an actual red means do not go out at all, roads close, trains, planes etc stop. I would imagine if confidence is high, something would come out by 6pm Thurs to catch the News broadcasts hopefully, let people get home and then know to stay in all night and NOT venture out.

Maybe in theory but in practice I've seen red warnings put out when not required. Even when it's clear as day there is no "danger to Life" and vice versa when they are required there not put out.

[Jo Farrow]

Maybe in theory but in practice I've seen red warnings put out when not required. Even when it's clear as day there is no "danger to Life" and vice versa when they are required there not put out.

When was that?

[fergieweather]

Just an aside - What does it take to get a red warning from the met?? Models have clearly shown this storm for days now and BBC weather just showed 100mph winds for Scotland and it gets amber? Really?

I can assure you it has been discussed and remains under close scrutiny; further upgrade may yet occur. It's such a key weather event this winter (the windiest period so far), with prospect as you rightly say of 100(+)mph gusts and clear sting jet potential (more especially with the first feature Thurs night). The second storm brings a wider swathe of 50+kt gusts across a broader area of the UK. Some here have focused on snow for Sat, which self-evidently is almost by-the-by in terms of core emphasis; much of the ground will be wet from previous low passage, limiting low-level accumulation anyway but it's one broadly for northern areas in any case. For sure, bothersome snow over higher ground early Sat with blizzards possible, but irrelevant in the south versus the blustery set-up. Either way, as EC-EFI output clearly signposts, this will prove a newsworthily stormy phase in the far north and the warnings remain under detailed review.

[fergieweather]

When was that?

I'd be intrigued too as I recall no such case since introduction of the newer impact-based NSWWS matrix. Some arguable ambers perhaps, but no reds I remember being without justification. As Jo says, raising to a red is a big deal at UKMO Ops Centre/PWS.

[doctor32]

I can assure you it has been discussed and remains under close scrutiny; further upgrade may yet occur. It's such a key weather event this winter (the windiest period so far), with prospect as you rightly say of 100(+)mph gusts and clear sting jet potential (more especially with the first feature Thurs night). The second storm brings a wider swathe of 50+kt gusts across a broader area of the UK. Some here have focused on snow for Sat, which self-evidently is almost by-the-by in terms of core emphasis; much of the ground will be wet from previous low passage, limiting low-level accumulation anyway but it's one broadly for northern areas in any case. For sure, bothersome snow over higher ground early Sat with blizzards possible, but irrelevant in the south versus the blustery set-up. Either way, as EC-EFI output clearly signposts, this will prove a newsworthily stormy phase in the far north and the warnings remain under detailed review.

Just out of curiosity, if these predicted wind speeds were forcast further south (say midlands south to london) i would imaging we may already have a red warning as any bit of bad weather down south seems to get get more warnings and news coverage.... why may this be the case??