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Paul

Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...

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Absolute madness on the charts. So much to play for in the coming few days.

Short term still doesn't show my neck of the woods getting much if any but I have seen before the difference that is made when a large proportion of the country has lying snow.

Best shot of the winter so far.

 

That's the problem living in this part of the country, we rely on north easterlies really and -10 850's. From what I've seen of the models it looks pretty slack to me, with not much chance for streamers!

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That's the problem living in this part of the country, we rely on north easterlies really and -10 850's. From what I've seen of the models it looks pretty slack to me, with not much chance for streamers!

If it comes off though and 70% of the country is covered it tends to spread. I believe it is because the lying snow keeps the air cooler and allows it to pool into other areas.

2 years back we had the same, all the early charts showed the North Getting all the fun, then a day after they got hit we got a decent covering that wasn't shown on the models till +12 runs

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Ahh....fatal error!.....don't look at the precip charts post T48...........

 

.....or you'll go from 

 

this    attachicon.gifhappy-face-72dpi1.jpg

 

 

 

to this  attachicon.gifdeprssion.jpg

 

 

 

back to this     attachicon.gifhappy-face-72dpi1.jpg

 

 

reverting quickly to this  attachicon.gifdeprssion.jpg

 

 

and ending up permanently like this    attachicon.gifstock-photo-16181215-crazy-man-in-straight-jacket-with-crossed-eyes.jpg

 

:crazy:

 

WELCOME TO THE MAD HOUSE!!!

 

On a more sane note, don't look too far ahead folks!!! I'm preparing myself for the all new GFS (ooooo!!!) 

 

Still all to play for, the uncertainty really highlighted by control runs of the GEFS and GFS!! :) 

Edited by Snowmadsam

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PATIENCE  (the capacity to accept or tolerate delay, problems, or suffering without becoming annoyed or anxious) this is required, lost count the amount of times snow has arrived unexpectedly in these situations, only last week members on here were proclaiming the end of winter! Like others have said let's get the cold in first 

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Looking good for a few.Yippee i finally inserted a photo not a link :clap:

uk.snow.next3to6days.cc23.jpg

Edited by winterof79

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that is not showing snow for the south though is it apart from a small patch in Devon.  Either way that will 100% change anyway come next week

Does that not show front edge and back edge snow on a front moving SE ???

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Since 2010? Seriously ? That was a month with a sub zero cet. Expecting that will only lead to disappointment.

I would be looking at the slider periods of winter 2013 for comparison.

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Does that not show front edge and back edge snow on a front moving SE ???

Would't even worry about snow yet. Big storm tonight with heavy rain.

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Looking good for a few.Yippee i finally inserted a photo not a link :clap:

uk.snow.next3to6days.cc23.jpg

 

What do all the colours mean (as in, is there a key?) and what is the source of this please?

 

 

Since 2010? Seriously ? That was a month with a sub zero cet. Expecting that will only lead to disappointment.

I would be looking at the slider periods of winter 2013 for comparison.

 

Since 2010, doesn't mean all that amazing.  We've had some cold snaps in all but last winter, but nothing amazing.  In saying the best since 2010, that doesn't mean it will be as good as 2010, just that it's better than anything since then!

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March 2013 and April to an extent was probably the best we've had SINCE 2010.

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March 2013 and April to an extent was probably the best we've had SINCE 2010.

 ...and just before that Feb 2012, east of London had 5-6" of snowfall (Essex, Suffolk, Kent) etc. so in general we're possibly talking since March 2013 :)

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MO update has cranked up the wintry potential next week, increasing risk of snow, severe frosts and freezing fog. This is great news considering some output yesterday showed a return to the usual Atlantic pattern by the middle of next week but this morning's models show a more prolonged cold spell with ample snow opportunities for much of the UK next week, any breakdown beyond that is just a possibility so it's all systems go for our best cold spell since Dec 2010. :-)

Stop it Frosty......your getting me excited.

Cold pool alert

EDM0-96.GIF?14-12

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What do all the colours mean (as in, is there a key?) and what is the source of this please?

 

 

 

Since 2010, doesn't mean all that amazing.  We've had some cold snaps in all but last winter, but nothing amazing.  In saying the best since 2010, that doesn't mean it will be as good as 2010, just that it's better than anything since then!

Here you go my friend.It has been fairly accurate but this upcoming spell will bring surprises that this will not detect

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk?over=none&symbols=snow&type=snow.last7days

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MO update has cranked up the wintry potential next week, increasing risk of snow, severe frosts and freezing fog. This is great news considering some output yesterday showed a return to the usual Atlantic pattern by the middle of next week but this morning's models show a more prolonged cold spell with ample snow opportunities for much of the UK next week, any breakdown beyond that is just a possibility so it's all systems go for our best cold spell since Dec 2010. :-)

 

Well forgetting the long period of cold temperatures that were essentially the talking point of Dec 2010 for most parts of the UK, in my part of the country we saw most likely the highest amount of snowfall, an exceptional 18inch, well over a foot (remembering from top of my head) was recorded.  That sure would take a whole lot of beating - and its only 5 years on from what was at the time deemed a 1 in 30 year event.

However having said that I truly hope you are right, like most on this forum I love Snow - it brings back the child in all of us + a few days off work ;-)

Edited by djrikki

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Ahh....fatal error!.....don't look at the precip charts post T48...........

 

.....or you'll go from 

 

this    attachicon.gifhappy-face-72dpi1.jpg

 

 

 

to this  attachicon.gifdeprssion.jpg

 

 

 

back to this     attachicon.gifhappy-face-72dpi1.jpg

 

 

reverting quickly to this  attachicon.gifdeprssion.jpg

 

 

and ending up permanently like this    attachicon.gifstock-photo-16181215-crazy-man-in-straight-jacket-with-crossed-eyes.jpg

 

:crazy:

I had an embargo on my photo not  being released in to the public domain. :oops:

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March 2013 and April to an extent was probably the best we've had SINCE 2010.

Not here it wasn't.

Cold, Yes, but also predominately dry

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March 2013 and April to an extent was probably the best we've had SINCE 2010.

I was talking about winter cold, not spring cold..this upcoming spell the models are showing will be far superior when you take into account the weaker and lower sun..this will win hands down but of course the snow distribution is far from being resolved.

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These waiting periods between outputs seem to last very long when theres a chance of some decent wintry weather.

 

Still over two hours to go! I know it might sound overly picky but the one thing missing from the outputs is seeing the -10 850 entering the UK.

 

If an easterly does develop that's really the benchmark one would hope to see, Maybe that will show up in future runs if of course the easterly can verify.

oh stop it nick!!getting a bit greedy lol!! The output currently is more than enough considering just a few days ago the outlook waa complete crap for the rest of the winter!!! The opi might be doing its magic mind you;)!!

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These waiting periods between outputs seem to last very long when theres a chance of some decent wintry weather.

 

Still over two hours to go! I know it might sound overly picky but the one thing missing from the outputs is seeing the -10 850 entering the UK.

 

If an easterly does develop that's really the benchmark one would hope to see, Maybe that will show up in future runs if of course the easterly can verify.

may I suggest Dr Nick, popping a Prozac?

or are you stockpiles under guard for the next week or so?

I would imagine the NW community are in for a nerve shredding ride.

will it? Wont it? you've got more than me! Ohh no I haven't,youve got  a streamer! Zonal mild incoming...you know the drill!

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That's sort of the point nick

I think it will be v tough to get to that level of uppers

The slider scenario doesn't require those low values to deliver widespread snowfall.

I shouldn't be surprised that some are ramping this in terms of what it will likely deliver but I would ask those posters to not come on here moaning when it doesn't live up to their expectations

Yes true its difficult to see how that deeper cold could get injected into the flow, of course most people will be happy to see snow and as long as the 850's support that then that's the main thing.

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