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Paul

Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...

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Can anyone explain why we're suddenly looking at a real cold spell, when only a couple of days ago it wasn't looking likely?

Chaos theory, despite our best guesses and predictions, we cannot take in to account the vast number of links and factors that make up our weather. Even if we try, getting just one factor slightly off causes huge differences down the line. It's just the nature of the game and what keeps us all coming back!

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And that'll be the more "pronounced E/NE" feed:

 

Rpgfs24017.gif

 

Eesh... :cold:  :cold:

 

Remember - it's not all about snow & cold and filling your faces... Don't forget at times like this to warn the elderly should these runs come to fruition, theres always a real danger to them with these synoptics.

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The GEFS 00 anomaly is back in the zone again at T240 and thereafter with mainly just above average temps. Ext eps likewise although because of a slightly different upper patter has the temps below average.

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I think a very valuable lesson can be learned from this predicted cold spell - is that the very best cold spells have a tendency to creep up on you, rather than appear in FI and stay that way all the way down to 0hrs

 

Nice upgrades within 144hrs, happy days.

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The GEFS 00 anomaly is back in the zone again at T240 and thereafter with mainly just above average temps. Ext eps likewise although because of a slightly different upper patter has the temps below average.

Thankfully there is a lot of snow to fall on top of the bridge before i think of those outcomes. :cold:

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Thanks for all you replies guys! So am I allowed to stop holding my breath, are all the models pretty confident about the next few days? Been so many near misses this winter alone...and I do need to breathe....

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I think this feature coming down from the North is worth keeping an eye on for Sunday, and is possibly what the UKMO are talking about re what Ian Fergusson said earlier.

 

ukprec.png

 

ukprec.png

 

ukprec.png

 

Could deliver some substantial snowfall for Yorkshire/Humber, Central belt & the south should it verify.

Edited by Dr. Astro

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And that'll be the more "pronounced E/NE" feed:

 

Rpgfs24017.gif

 

Eesh... :cold:  :cold:

 

Remember - it's not all about snow & cold and filling your faces... Don't forget at times like this to warn the elderly should these runs come to fruition, theres always a real danger to them with these synoptics.

Excuse my lack of knowledge, I take those are night time temps ??

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Can anyone explain why we're suddenly looking at a real cold spell, when only a couple of days ago it wasn't looking likely?

Very good question !!! I would also like to know..

Also does anyone have up to date   S.S.TS  at this moment , could be crucial for us E.Kent coastal community ..

 

Thank you in advance..

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A few comments from me in a rare post in the MOD thread!

GFS hinted at a pattern change two weeks ago for this period although as we should it has been taken with a large pinch of salt! Also predicted the MJO phase rather well IMO.

Low pressure never seems too far away in any of the runs I've seen recently so I'm sceptical of a dry outlook, although low pressure also brings with it the risk of warm sectors so plenty of marginal snow risks around next week.

A forecasters nightmare RE: above!

Nice to be staring down the barrel of a cold spell in January for a change, something we have not seen for quite a few years! Be careful what you wish for, potential for a real dumping somewhere!

Still a few days away from getting any real solid and consistent output from the models so let's get storm Rachel out the way and hopefully we can get a proper handle on what next week has in store.

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Excuse my lack of knowledge, I take those are night time temps ??

 

Aye, those are the "minimum" temperatures expected.

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Hi love love love all this! I'm writing today but it's difficult not to be drawn back to the eye candy :) I'll be on and off during the day for sure!

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There is a 5th - 9th February 1996 feel about the charts and situation that is gathering pace. High pressure in 1996 was a little more entrenched to our north, but caught between a trough to our east and sliding lows to the west that one week was the best snow week of my life in the South of England. Roll on a repeat. We need this week to produce the goods.

 

Interesting acknowledgement from a MetO presentation on the accuracy of their long term modelling suggesting that their ability to get the pattern right is becoming very accurate, but data suggests the modelling tends to underemphasise the outer edges of those patterns and how "extreme" the pattern could be. Next week would seem to be a case in point - it was picked up as an incoming colder spell on the back of the strat warming, vortex split and subsequent destruction of the Canadian segment.... but the potential degree of cold and snow was not picked up.

 

Just shows that even the gloomiest weather watcher should avoid total despair - even in the age of increasingly accurate medium range modelling. I was pretty gloomy myself last week (I'm still not all that confident that the rest of the winter will be one to remember....) but a cooler pattern is now looking like a week of cold, and all at pretty short range. One good week of cold will cancel out all other disappointments.

 

Pumped....

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Just a quickie as I have little time.

 

I have read a few comments saying "it looks dry". These exact same comments were said during Dec 2009,2010. You will always find surprise snowfall turns up and is never possible to predict at this timeframe.

 

Damn good 06Z.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2281.gif

 

Predicted surface temps remind me of 1981!

 

Yep, run the snow risk chart for a bit of fun. This is a very cold unstable set up: really reminds me of 1978/9 where we had repeated bouts of this sort of cold instability rather than a bone dry easterly. Great fun!

 

Still pinching myself by the way re. the snow from westerly flow this past 24 hours. I know it can happen but rarer than hen's teeth.

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The GEFS 00 anomaly is back in the zone again at T240 and thereafter with mainly just above average temps. Ext eps likewise although because of a slightly different upper patter has the temps below average.

Not sure what you mean knocker can you explain in a little more detail so others can understand many thanks

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Do you actually really mean that the UKMO is better at T144 Nick? Or do you, rather, mean to say that for further FI potential after T144 you think UKMO currently looks better than the evolution on ECM? The T144 chart for ECM puts the UK in the deepfreeze:

 

 

 

 
 
It's great to see you talking about wanting to be positive though. What I like about this situation is that the cold is now in a pretty short timeframe, and the divergence and therefore potential for disagreement on here is in FI, past T144. That's a good situation for us cold lovers living in these often mild isles.

 

It was more about the future evolution going forward. The ECM at T144hrs was good but in terms of holding on to the cold and a possible ne/e flow the UKMO had a better chance of getting there.

 

Having looked at the De Bilt ensembles theres a good chance the ECM operational run will backtrack tonight.

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Very good question !!! I would also like to know..

Also does anyone have up to date   S.S.TS  at this moment , could be crucial for us E.Kent coastal community ..

 

Thank you in advance..

Some will say chaos theory but as knowledge increases and more specific understanding of key factors such as combined effect of them all, everything can be defined.

What factors I.e Stratospheric waves, SSW's, SST's, QBO,MJO, Ozone, ENSO,PV, all the jet streams, NAO,AO, PDO, AMO, SAI,Solar output etc....

An answer to our current situation is in there somewhere and to few who have really studied all could in effect solve the complex puzzle of getting snow/ cold to the British Isles.

Due to the difficulty of getting us to our current point it's what makes a forecast so special.

But before we get here there's a possible 945 mb low pressure system to see through first. It's all good.

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The GFS P hasn't even been properly launched and its getting on my nerves already. Now stopped at T72hrs, what is going at NCEP?

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it seems we a have new model -  the GFS(P)ause   :angry:

EDIT: Nick beat me to it

Edited by karlos1983

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This isn't probably the place to ask but do the models indicate a snowy cold spell or a dry cold spell? Thanks in advance

Anyone? :)

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