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Paul

Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...

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Thanks. Yes that is no surprise.

 

  MattHugo81

00z EC HRES was an outlier with this solution. Not much support in the models - http://t.co/XDkoR2vYEs - cold theme maintained in EC ENS.

14/01/2015 09:11

 

 

 

And to confirm here are the De Bilt ensembles...

 

pluim_06260_0_00_60.png

Edited by mulzy

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following the excitement/ dread of the earlier posts regarding forthcoming cold weather ( I was about to get my passport), Gibby again puts it all in perspective!

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ECM Control looks the lead again BA?,,,,,, - Whats the flow like at day 11-13- Easterly into the UK?

 

IDO - ECM operational gone another notch down in my estimations this year!!

 

S

 

 EPS 850mb flow North westerly becoming westerly  Control  NW backing SW/S

Edited by knocker

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I just had one of those Ian Brown moments I.e...WTF I don't know what to say...

Just say that James Madden was right *jokes*

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And to confirm here are the De Bilt ensembles...

 

pluim_06260_0_00_60.png

Confirming what? No support for cold in Holland?

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Steve - the control doesn't have the depression to the nw post day 7. The Atlantic ridge stronger and this then arcs around the euro trough to meet the Russian ridge.

We are then under this cold ridge for a couple of days before another slider comes in from the nw and crosses sw uk on its way into the euro trough which remains strong.

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Confirming what? No support for cold in Holland?

The op (red) is an outlier on various graphs which is very apparent. It would fall out of the standard deviation so it is a clear outlier and it doesn't matter if it is the Dutch or the UK ensembles or the U.S., etc it remains a run that should be ignored until it gets support from its members.

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As others note, UKMO regard EC DET as progressive outlier. Strong signal for colder or much colder weather next week, albeit extremely low skill on snow risk in any one area (not even worth speculating!). MJO phase root cause for the synoptic 'flip', they say. Some solutions look ominous, but a while before ANY worthwhile deterministic detail emerges for day-to-day prospects after the cold, cyclonic weekend has passed...

Ian

Can you elaborate please

 

BFTP

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As others note, UKMO regard EC DET as progressive outlier. Strong signal for colder or much colder weather next week, albeit extremely low skill on snow risk in any one area (not even worth speculating!). MJO phase root cause for the synoptic 'flip', they say. Some solutions look ominous, but a while before ANY worthwhile deterministic detail emerges for day-to-day prospects after the cold, cyclonic weekend has passed...

For once the MET and us on a level playing field regarding snow forecasting.Loving the ominous bit from my own prospective :cold:

Hello lampost we have some serious loving up to do. :air_kiss:  :air_kiss:

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As others note, UKMO regard EC DET as progressive outlier. Strong signal for colder or much colder weather next week, albeit extremely low skill on snow risk in any one area (not even worth speculating!). MJO phase root cause for the synoptic 'flip', they say. Some solutions look ominous, but a while before ANY worthwhile deterministic detail emerges for day-to-day prospects after the cold, cyclonic weekend has passed...

On the rare occasions that the MJO goes into phase 7 as is the case now, the correlation of expected colder anomalies for NW Europe has come true. GEFS had the strongest signal for this phase of MJO.

Probabilities say it had to be correct once in a while.

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E.g. re PPN details Sunday; re E'wd extent of frontal progression Mon-Tues; re threat of cut-off to S leading to more pronounced E-NE solution...rapid occluding of any warm sectors in Atlantic lows expected, with 522/sub-522dam air prevailing, with attendant awkward forecast period re wintry risks.

Deja vous......

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1979/archives-1979-1-24-0-0.png

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=24&month=1&year=1979&hour=0&map=0&mode=0

 

WIB  you lurking?

Edited by winterof79

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E.g. re PPN details Sunday; re E'wd extent of frontal progression Mon-Tues; re threat of cut-off to S leading to more pronounced E-NE solution...rapid occluding of any warm sectors in Atlantic lows expected, with 522/sub-522dam air prevailing, with attendant awkward forecast period re wintry risks.

 

Many thanks Ian, it appears it's a pretty volatile solution which is going to keep the UKMO on it's toes leading into this weekend & the next.

 

Non the less, the UK looks set to take a dip into the freezer come next week.

 

Great to have a professional view on this forum, or a level head should I say.

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Can anyone explain why we're suddenly looking at a real cold spell, when only a couple of days ago it wasn't looking likely?

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Can anyone explain why we're suddenly looking at a real cold spell, when only a couple of days ago it wasn't looking likely?

It has been mentioned that the MJO dipping its feet in to phase 7 poss 8 may have contributed to the rapid change.Something that the GEFS have been seeing for a while around the 18th

 

Quote: Ian F

As others note, UKMO regard EC DET as progressive outlier. Strong signal for colder or much colder weather next week, albeit extremely low skill on snow risk in any one area (not even worth speculating!). MJO phase root cause for the synoptic 'flip', they say. Some solutions look ominous, but a while before ANY worthwhile deterministic detail emerges for day-to-day prospects after the cold, cyclonic weekend has passed... 

Edited by winterof79

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Can anyone explain why we're suddenly looking at a real cold spell, when only a couple of days ago it wasn't looking likely?

 

Because the weather will do, what the weather will do - it's what keeps things interesting :)

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morning all ,first off we have very good looking charts in front of us for wintry potential .dont look at just one run or a particular day especia;lly when looking past 5 days .Met office produce Fax charts out to T120 simply because thats the limit for any fair agreement of any frontal systems ,positioning of lows etc .in my many years of weather knowledge looking at what is shown today i would say there is no guarantee of snow in any one place come friday onwards ,but many places will get it if current indications pan out .but certainly A Lot of weather of mixed variety to look forward to over the coming week . :cold:

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Can anyone explain why we're suddenly looking at a real cold spell, when only a couple of days ago it wasn't looking likely?

Jet Stream is due to move south.  Think the jet stream as a track for the train. The train is a low pressure system and a track is a jet stream. So by this time next week the low pressure systems should be south of us. Usually the cold air is at the north of the jet stream.

Edited by pip22

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Can anyone explain why we're suddenly looking at a real cold spell, when only a couple of days ago it wasn't looking likely?

 

Thanks for the update Ian. I will provide my usual translation service for NW coldies.  :D

Because we are in maritime climate where the prognosis can swing wildly at the drop of a hat. 

Downpour is spot on.  9 times out of 10 it will be the cold spell disappearing, this is a rare one!

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This isn't probably the place to ask but do the models indicate a snowy cold spell or a dry cold spell? Thanks in advance

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Can anyone explain why we're suddenly looking at a real cold spell, when only a couple of days ago it wasn't looking likely?

I must say, I couldn't see the cold spell just 5 days ago, but having followed this forum for a while I knew that when people such as Bluearmy ramp up a cold spell I needed to take note! So part of it is knowing who to listen to I think. Bluearmy in particular has been gunning for this colder spell for a week at least. Not to say it's definitely going to happen yet...give me another day before I'll say that!

 

And credit to the old GFS for "seeing" the MJO phase 7 stage long ago - it got a bit of a bashing for being "biased" last week but it is proving right all along! 

 

Speaking of the GFS, can it go out on a blaze of glory this morning and bring in a beasterly? It's trying!!

gfs-0-180.png?6

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