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Paul

Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...

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and heights building over greenland with a reload coming in as the low sinks south south east into europe best runs of the winter from all the top models

ECM1-240.GIF?14-12ECM0-240.GIF?14-12

 

Yep, cracking reload from ECM! :)

 

And this time we're not reliant on that timeframe because what is showing beforehand, prior to model divergence, is great. Could be some real fun from this.

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Haha!! That takes me back to the good ol' days :D Speaking of which, where is TEITS?

 

Edit, that's uncanny. Good morning Dave. Hope you're happy. Better than an easterly? ;)

Edited by Paul

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Huge variety of solutions even day 4-5 which is slightly worrying as no model has a handle on how this will evolve

As a whole it looks marginal for widespread snow away from Scotland (where we are quietly having quite a snowy January) and higher ground although dependent on whatever verified somewhere could get a pasting

Fascinating model watching, cold for sure but the detail still very uncertain

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Not a bad winter.

 

Indeed! :D Actually it would be interesting to ask people who remember which was their favourite winter and I suspect 78/9 might win over, say, 1962/3. I wasn't born in the latter but I remember the prodigious snow in 1978/9. We're not quite there yet by any means, and this may be a short-lived cold snap, but these battleground setups are great fun for those who catch the right side of the cold. Anyway, it sure as heck beats last winter. I don't think I even came on the forum it was so awful.

 

Edit, by the way this current setup has been a rare event in my lifetime: snow off a westerly flow. 

 

JoeShmoe, we'll have to see how it pans, but the uppers look pretty good for snow to me at this stage. I love the ECM T144-168 and with uppers of -8C to -9C I don't think we'd have to much to worry about.

Edited by West is Best

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Haha!! That takes me back to the good ol' days :D Speaking of which, where is TEITS?

 

Edit, that's uncanny. Good morning Dave. Hope you're happy. Better than an easterly? ;)

indeed ukmo looking good to so all aboard the snow train.

after all once snow has laid then ir temps become modified and cold once cold is in place it a bugger to remove.

as TEITIS has said no point looking at the end of cold spell once blocking is in place then it opens up gaps for more blocking like the ecm which goes very close to greenland being blocked,

and not west based either gfs p is absolutely blinding.

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looking at the gfs p i really don't like seeing projected easterly with such a strong AZH in place. But that is well into the run

Indeed looking at all the runs and for a reload so much is dependent on the AZH playing ball and trough dropping SSE....and the way this winter has behaved.....I don't trust the evolution not that it will go that way.  Let's get into this cold scenario first and take it from there as i think that bit is looking right. 

 

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST

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Surely we are in for some widespread snow beginning of next week, as long as there is precipitation to go with these cold uppers looking at ecm @ +144h

 

ECU0-144.GIF

 

The corresponding precip chart show it to be as dry as a bone. Severe frosts likely in places though, especially anywhere with snow on the ground.

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But as regards the beginning of next week, which granted is an age away, the models show a shallow depression sliding nw/se

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015011400/UW120-21.GIF?14-06 and another in the wings

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011400/gfs-0-108.png?0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015011400/ECM1-96.GIF?14-12  a flabby low with cold uppers could be tasty.

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Good confidence that the uppers will be cold from later Friday for around 6-7 days. London: post-14819-0-46360000-1421220463_thumb.g

 

So we will get the cold and its just what happens on the surface now. Looking at the GEFS precipitation for London in that period it looks like very little activity, but of course early days and disturbances can pop up very quickly. The temps look cold for several days from Sunday so that may be the main talking point. Very uncertain how long this will last looking at the GEFS. The hi-res vary from D8-12. This is all rather uncertain and more runs needed. The GEFS nearly all go with the upcoming pattern change as do the other models. There are variations on that theme and this should become clearer by Friday.

 

ECM at D6 also looks dry but some very cold uppers: post-14819-0-39182200-1421221576_thumb.p post-14819-0-84574800-1421221576_thumb.p

 

GEM is more interesting at that time but I don't trust GEM at the moment.

 

The strong winds into the west this afternoon and a second burst tomorrow so stormy for about 24 hours:

 

post-14819-0-02366400-1421221813_thumb.ppost-14819-0-59656300-1421221812_thumb.ppost-14819-0-13628700-1421221812_thumb.p

 

Wet tonight with high levels in the west especially over hills: post-14819-0-66588300-1421222059_thumb.g

 

 

 

 

 

 

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I'm not really sharing this love for the ECM today, to presume a re-load then requires a whole new set of things to work together at day ten. And we've seen just how much drama the models can make of this! So I'm probably going against the general feeling here but I hope the ECM implodes this evening.

 

The UKMO IMO is far better at T144hrs as that has the potential to drop the trough south with ridge over the top, the GFS P again is nice although its a bit nervewrecking between T168 and T192hrs,

 

On a positive note before the major divergence in the outputs there is several possibilities for snow, in terms of colder temps the longest continuous below average in a winter month for nearly 2 years.

 

So reasons to be cheerful but a lot of uncertainty past day 6.

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Morning everyone :)
 

Well the 0zs are worth getting up for arent they. We can all go to work with a smile on our faces this morning :D

 

Some great charts, for both cold and some snow about. As is usualy the case, get the cold in and the snow will come. We certainly look to do that next week. We've waited neary 2 years for this!!!

 

ECM1-120.GIF?14-12ECM1-240.GIF?14-12

 

Just a couple of ECM charts. A nice reload this morning at the end of the run!

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Great news Steve. So we shouldn't worry that the precipitation looks low, snow could pop up anywhere once the cold is locked in, correct?

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Yes definitely liking the look of the ECM Mean, cold throughout after Friday

 

EDM0-72.GIF?14-12EDM0-96.GIF?14-12EDM0-120.GIF?14-12EDM0-144.GIF?14-12EDM0-168.GIF?14-12EDM0-192.GIF?14-12EDM0-216.GIF?14-12EDM0-240.GIF?14-12

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Great news Steve. So we shouldn't worry that the precipitation looks low, snow could pop up anywhere once the cold is locked in, correct?

 

Yes. Last minute. com as ever with the snow....

 

Last night was a good example- Unstable flow & low heights....,

S

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Decent charts today

No beast from the east or snowmageddon but a week or so of very cold temperatures, night frosts, trough disruption and more, good chance of most places to see some lying snow

Bank

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I'm not really sharing this love for the ECM today, to presume a re-load then requires a whole new set of things to work together at day ten. And we've seen just how much drama the models can make of this! So I'm probably going against the general feeling here but I hope the ECM implodes this evening.

 

The UKMO IMO is far better at T144hrs as that has the potential to drop the trough south with ridge over the top, the GFS P again is nice although its a bit nervewrecking between T168 and T192hrs,

 

On a positive note before the major divergence in the outputs there is several possibilities for snow, in terms of colder temps the longest continuous below average in a winter month for nearly 2 years.

 

So reasons to be cheerful but a lot of uncertainty past day 6.

 

Do you actually really mean that the UKMO is better at T144 Nick? Or do you, rather, mean to say that for further FI potential after T144 you think UKMO currently looks better than the evolution on ECM? The T144 chart for ECM puts the UK in the deepfreeze:

 

 

 
It's great to see you talking about wanting to be positive though. What I like about this situation is that the cold is now in a pretty short timeframe, and the divergence and therefore potential for disagreement on here is in FI, past T144. That's a good situation for us cold lovers living in these often mild isles.
Edited by West is Best

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Yes. Last minute. com as ever with the snow....

 

Last night was a good example- Unstable flow & low heights....,

S

 

Yep, spot on. It's not like we will be slap bang under a high pressure, so we would expect ppn from that instability with those temps. Anyway, the main part of the programme is to get the right set up. We can worry about the 'will it snow in Tunbridge Wells?' bit later.

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Well the ECM mean is out-

 

MUCH better & less volatile than the operational-  We are nailed for a cold spell lasting 6-9 days at least.

 

168 Mean

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015011400/EDH1-168.GIF?14-12

 

192

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015011400/EDH1-192.GIF?14-12

 

Mean at 192 displaying a continental flow.- thereafter not really concerned with what its showing.....

 

 

A very good start to the day.

S

 

Like the GEFS ECM has no clue after D5 with 6 clusters at that time. As usual during uncertain output the ECM op sits in Cluster 6 with only 4 member support!!!

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/teasers/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa%21120%21pop%21od%21enfo%21enplot%212014011912%21%21

 

The differences are subtle but important for surface conditions and development further into the run. Still big differences how that Atlantic low is dealt with around T96. The op handles this differently to the majority of it's members.

 

The GEM mean is also now confident of the disrupting trough, D7: post-14819-0-73554000-1421226482_thumb.p

 

Again lots of variability after D8.

Edited by i'm dreaming of...

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Extended eps swing back to extending the troughing anomoly and hence the cold

 

Thanks. Yes that is no surprise.

 

  MattHugo81

00z EC HRES was an outlier with this solution. Not much support in the models - http://t.co/XDkoR2vYEs - cold theme maintained in EC ENS.

14/01/2015 09:11

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Extended eps swing back to extending the troughing anomoly and hence the cold

ECM Control looks the lead again BA?,,,,,, - Whats the flow like at day 11-13- Easterly into the UK?

 

IDO - ECM operational gone another notch down in my estimations this year!!

 

S

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