Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...

[Timmytour]

why ??? The extreme  S.E seems to have just as cold uppers as the rest of the u.k on this evidence. tell me if im wrong !.

Suggest you refer to SM's subsequent explanatory post.  Suffice to say exposure to wind coming off the sea as opposed to off the land at this time of year has a marked effect on surface temps

[Isabellesnanny]

Probably posting this in the wrong area so apologies and please move if required, not really a regional question as I am talking cross regions.

I live in Croydon but my mum is currently very unwell in Hospital in Cheltenham.Been up and down the motorway over the last couple of weeks but I am really getting worried as to whether any snow in the next couple of days would be an issue if I had to get there. Where would be the best place to look for any details (from a very practical view rather than a weather enthusiasts) sorry again if wrong place but many thanks.

[Eugene]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

 

 

I particularly like UKMO 12Z T+144 hrs chart tonight which would really offer some harsh night frost in a very slack flow, very chilly chart indeed even better if snow is already on the ground to freeze nice and hard

[Frosty.]

Does that include South East as well?

Yes, the south has missed out so far but it looks like all that will change and most of the UK looks on course for our best wintry spell for a few years, having the met office on board is the biggest reason for positive vibes tonight. :-)

[Frosty.]

think I will refrain from opening the Stella's at the moment frosty. Still outside the reliable timeframe at mo. But as u say looks good. But until I see these charts at t48 I'm going to remain cautious. As I've seen it go wrong so many times. My philosophy with the gfs ECM ukmo is expect nothing and hopefully they move into reality.

Yes terrier but things are looking very promising, I'm sure many on here will agree with that.

[ANYWEATHER]

Gfs gives a goodbye to cold, At T+240  Ecm refuses to let the cold go.......

Edited January 13, 2015 by ANYWEATHER

[ukpaul]

De Bilt Ensembles, op one of  the warmest runs next Tues/Wed, control goes into the freezer for a while.

 

Edited January 13, 2015 by ukpaul

[knocker]

Probably posting this in the wrong area so apologies and please move if required, not really a regional question as I am talking cross regions.

I live in Croydon but my mum is currently very unwell in Hospital in Cheltenham.Been up and down the motorway over the last couple of weeks but I am really getting worried as to whether any snow in the next couple of days would be an issue if I had to get there. Where would be the best place to look for any details (from a very practical view rather than a weather enthusiasts) sorry again if wrong place but many thanks.

 

Is this any help. But also the AA are very good.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?WT.mc_id=Twitter_Warnings_Wind&tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.51&lat=55.50&fcTime=1421107200

Edited January 13, 2015 by knocker

[A.J]

Probably posting this in the wrong area so apologies and please move if required, not really a regional question as I am talking cross regions.

I live in Croydon but my mum is currently very unwell in Hospital in Cheltenham.Been up and down the motorway over the last couple of weeks but I am really getting worried as to whether any snow in the next couple of days would be an issue if I had to get there. Where would be the best place to look for any details (from a very practical view rather than a weather enthusiasts) sorry again if wrong place but many thanks.

check out the Highways Agency website, or the AA/RAC sites........IMO travelling from Croydon to Cheltenham should be ok, but if traveling early tomorrow I'd avoid the A417 Swindon-Cheltenham link and stick to the M5/M4......The A417 near Birdlip could be very tricky (it's around 1000ft and notoriously bad in any snowy weather)

Edited January 13, 2015 by ajpoolshark

[West is Best]

Looks like theres going to be a huge improvement for the ski resorts across Europe with either the ECM or GFS P. Indeed across much of central western mainland Europe it looks like the heaviest snow of the winter so far.

 

Blimey, the 12z GFSP is a thing of beauty in the frames we have. Not quite on a par with the 6z but almost.

 

Exciting times! Let's hope it holds. Reminds me of 78/9.

[easton888]

Where are you viewing the 12z GFSP?

[Summer Sun]

Where are you viewing the 12z GFSP?

 

http://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?act=url&depth=1&hl=en&ie=UTF8&prev=_t&rurl=translate.google.co.uk&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php%3Fech%3D6%26code%3D0%26mode%3D0%26runpara%3D1&usg=ALkJrhinQvtkmMqt1j9NciTVRoB8g_-j0g

 

[North East Blizzard]

Seen most the gfs (p) 12z on the meteociel app, it is a thing of beauty, especially the easterly around the 21st

[shaky]

How is the ecm mean looking!!

[easton888]

Thanks! Yeah looks pretty good out to Monday

[I remember Atlantic 252]

dosen't exist on mine SS, i view it on meteociel

[Meggy]

check out the Highways Agency website, or the AA/RAC sites........IMO travelling from Croydon to Cheltenham should be ok, but if traveling early tomorrow I'd avoid the A417 Swindon-Cheltenham link and stick to the M5/M4......The A417 near Birdlip could be very tricky (it's around 1000ft and notoriously bad in any snowy weather)

I remember cars skidding in snow near the Air Balloon Pub on a visit to Gloucester a few years back.

[johnholmes]

Taking a view beyond this weekend and looking as usual at the anomaly charts. What do they seem to have in store.

my notes below and the usual links below that.

 

Noaa

6-10 shows an interesting development to ne=couple more runs needed and possibly by Friday to see it starting to show on the 8-14 for any reality though? Also the –ve area showing, not large but coupled with the +ve to the ne does suggest a fairly marked change.

8-14 as is often the case not showing either but the flow eastern atlantic/uk/Europe is decreasing with still some of trough into Europe, so a case of wait and see.

The 6-10 is quite like the EC output this morning-again this was a 1^st such idea from EC as well.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

The latest GFS MJO gives no suggestion of this type of 500mb pattern it has to be said.

So we watch and wait to see if the anomaly charts remain with increasing consistency for what the 6-10 and ECMWF show currently.

Edited January 13, 2015 by johnholmes

[MR EXTREMES]

Even the ao a mess

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml

[Isabellesnanny]

Thanks for info guys will check out AA if we have to shoot up there - my family live one side of Cleeve Hill and the hospital is the other and that is always a nightmare in any snow and ice.

Thanks again.

[Long haul to mild]

Taking a view beyond this weekend and looking as usual at the anomaly charts. What do they seem to have in store.

my notes below and the usual links below that.

 

Noaa

6-10 shows an interesting development to ne=couple more runs needed and possibly by Friday to see it starting to show on the 8-14 for any reality though? Also the –ve area showing, not large bu coupled with the +ve to the ne does suggest a fairly marked change.

8-14 as is often the case not showing either but the flow eastern atlantic/uk/Europe is decreasing with still some of trough into Europe, so a case of wait and see.

The 6-10 is quite like the EC output this morning-again this was a 1^st such idea from EC as well.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

The latest GFS MJO gives no suggestion of this type of 500mb pattern it has to be said.

So we watch and wait to see if the anomaly charts remain with increasing consistency for what the 6-10 and ECMWF show currently.

John, I'm not an expert at all on these charts so apologies if this is a stupid question, but would the marked change you mention include the possibility of an Easterly flow setting up?

[easton888]

Just the 648 people on this thread tonight

[Paul]

Just while the 18z rolls out, for those who may have missed it earlier - Nick's latest synoptic outlook is online, covering the snow/cold, storm 'rachel' and beyond:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=6400;sess=

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean turns progressively colder with an increasing risk of snow and severe frosts, rather like the latest met office update...it looks like a noteworthy nationwide wintry spell is on the way, how long will it last..I cannot say but I'm going to make the most of it that's for sure. :-)

[johnholmes]

John, I'm not an expert at all on these charts so apologies if this is a stupid question, but would the marked change you mention include the possibility of an Easterly flow setting up?

 

It could but it would depend on just where the upper features settled as to it, the big IF that idea is correct, whether the surface flow was NE or more E'ly.