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Paul

Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...

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Very cold D10 Easterly on the GFS P: post-14819-0-72535700-1421146032_thumb.p  post-14819-0-48891500-1421146073_thumb.p

 

Can the GFS P better the D10 ECM teaser charts for the rest of the winter? 

 

The D10 GFS op in contrast: post-14819-0-63006600-1421146273_thumb.p

 

 

Edited by i'm dreaming of...

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YIPEE!

 

Well as I said last night, i was very nervous about firing the laptop up this morning! Butterflies!

 

To my relief, we have some fantastic charts on offer, problably the best runs of the winter?? I think so.

 

Its good to see the GFS, ECM and UKMO all getting high pressure up to our north and then lows sliding under. The best route to cold in the UK.

 

Yes we still have to be carefull, and the 12zs tonight will be another exciting event. However, we're not talking T300 here, the good charts are now appearing at T144 so that must be a huge bonus for us coldies :)

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Been snowing in central Scotland all morning and it's actually lying! Got a good feeling about the rest of this winter. It's already much better than last year which was absolute rubbish for snow unless you lived on the top of a munro. 

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Absolute stonking run from the GFSP -

 

h850t850eu.png

 

I have watched the pattern for the past 5 days, and the Atlantic Train is grinding to a halt, the Beast from the East is quite powerful, but blocking heading for Scandinavia. Great times for the Eastern counties & London.

 

h500slp.png

 

It's not often you get a near full run without any mild interludes.

 

Will be interesting to see the other models and how they handle the situation, but we *could* be staring down the barrell of cold & snowy weather.

 

Lets see how it pans.

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If the 12Z show the same or Similar than the 06zs then I think we are looking good for atleast a 4-5 day cold spell, not sure how much or if we will get any snow, but cold days and night look probable. Will the METOs models back this up, not sure; but a slight lean towards an Easterly next week would be nice to hear about from them, hard to have faith in the GFS/ECM without it.

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Absolute stonking run from the GFSP -

 

h850t850eu.png

 

I have watched the pattern for the past 5 days, and the Atlantic Train is grinding to a halt, the Beast from the East is quite powerful, but blocking heading for Scandinavia. Great times for the Eastern counties & London.

 

h500slp.png

 

It's not often you get a near full run without any mild interludes.

 

Will be interesting to see the other models and how they handle the situation, but we *could* be staring down the barrell of cold & snowy weather.

 

Lets see how it pans.

 

Absolute stonking run from the GFSP -

 

h850t850eu.png

 

I have watched the pattern for the past 5 days, and the Atlantic Train is grinding to a halt, the Beast from the East is quite powerful, but blocking heading for Scandinavia. Great times for the Eastern counties & London.

 

h500slp.png

 

It's not often you get a near full run without any mild interludes.

 

Will be interesting to see the other models and how they handle the situation, but we *could* be staring down the barrell of cold & snowy weather.

 

Lets see how it pans.

 

At this point it's worth noting that pressure is probably too high for anything decent away from the south east. You really want pressure to be sub 1020mb ideally, sub 1025mb at a push. 

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Whilst large parts of Europe are shown to have above average 2m temps over the next 8 days the UK will be seeing below average 2m temps

 

gfsanom_eu.png

 

Normal 2m temps left, expected 2m temps right

 

gfsnorm_eu.png gfssr_eu.png

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The pressure gradient wont stop any showers coming into the East.

 

Albeit, agreed it would be better for it to be lower, with more disturbances.

 

uksnowrisk.png

 

uksnowrisk.png

 

It's your typical setup, cold surface, cold isotherm, sunny for the west, snow showers daily for the East.

 

hgt500-1000.png

 

The trend is there on the GFSP - the outcome depends on the disturbances, so finer details at this point are pointless to predict.

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ey up mi duck

things would turn a little chilly if this chart verifies :spiteful:

 

post-2797-0-12381400-1421148027_thumb.gi

 

 

 

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The good trends continue this morning and are getting tantalisingly close to reliable timescale. The 3 important factors are continuing to happen-The AH moving West(a bit further NW would be more preferable),heights continue to rise to the N/NE and pressure stays low over Northern Italy. Using cold spells I have noticed in the past we need all these things to be in place to give us increased chances of cold . No means a done deal yet but so good to see cold charts appear after last winters washout.

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Mid Term potential looks good for potential cold spell down the line, but to the here & now. Euro 4 Raw has just updated..

 

12pm

post-15543-0-90309500-1421148773_thumb.g

 

6pm

post-15543-0-98839800-1421148791_thumb.g

 

Midnight

post-15543-0-66388300-1421148800_thumb.g

 

6am

post-15543-0-52789300-1421148837_thumb.g

 

12pm Weds-

post-15543-0-05391300-1421148846_thumb.g

 

6pm-Weds

post-15543-0-56304800-1421148863_thumb.g

 

Looks like a Wintry afternoon/early evening for Western Areas with Showers turning progressively wintry with sleet/snow over 200m+ then down to lower levels as the evening goes on with temperatures dropping. Wales with elevation looks first port of call this afternoon as colder air filters down from NW, organised to Scotland. Then attention turns to SW,Longer spells of snow possible as snow showers merge together. Scotland and parts of N England/ N Ireland seeing snow also as organised band of sleet/snow here. Looks good over the next 24 hours for a lot more areas than just recently, Who knows about the weekend and beyond, but the chance of more snow is there as the GFS/GFS P/ECM show this morning.. Good luck to those over the next 24hrs.  :cold:

Edited by Mark N

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Even though I have a personal interest in the models verifying, the way this winter has panned out so far I'm not counting any chickens.  I generally like the theme as plausible but this is the winter of 'being scuppered' and wouldn't be surprised to see my forecast AGAIN being stitched up like a kipper.  Also it will take only slight repositioning early on for the bitter cold Scandi ridge to develop too far away.

However, we have entered the stadium and are now in the changing rooms getting ready to enter the field of play.

 

BFTP 

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST

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Mid Term potential looks good for potential cold spell down the line, but to the here & now. Euro 4 Raw has just updated..

 

12pm

attachicon.gifsnow.gif

 

6pm

attachicon.gifsnow 2.gif

 

Midnight

attachicon.gifsnow 3.gif

 

6am

attachicon.gifsnow 4.gif

 

12pm Weds-

attachicon.gifsnow 5.gif

 

6pm-Weds

attachicon.gifsnow 6.gif

 

Looks like a Wintry afternoon/early evening for Western Areas with Showers turning progressively wintry with sleet/snow over 200m+ then down to lower levels as the evening goes on with temperatures dropping. Wales with elevation looks first port of call this afternoon as colder air filters down from NW, organised to Scotland. Then attention turns to SW,Longer spells of snow possible as snow showers merge together. Scotland and parts of N England/ N Ireland seeing snow also as organised band of sleet/snow here. Looks good over the next 24 hours for a lot more areas than just recently, Who knows about the weekend and beyond, but the chance of more snow is there as the GFS/GFS P/ECM show this morning.. Good luck to those over the next 24hrs.  :cold:

Looks Snowy for Central London tomorrow morning looking at that.

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GFS / GFS(P) again go for easterlies T168 onwards.

 

The key point is T120. Note the angle of the divide between the ridge in the North Atlantic and the low pressure coming off Canada in the following:

 

gfs-0-120.png?6gfs-0-120.png?6

gfs-0-120.png?6

ECM1-120.GIF?13-12UW120-21.GIF?13-06

 

On the GFS "brothers", the low pressure easily gets "underneath" part of the ridge. This stops the ridge from collapsing later on and leads to an easterly. The ECM just about gets the low under the ridge and likewise, just about manages an easterly push in T168-T240. The UKMO is really close between the low going under or over.

 

Since the big three all show this possibility, there's clearly some mileage in this. But given a history of model mistakes with this kind of thing, and also UKMO/ECM not completely emphatic on getting the low to go under, I don't think confidence can be high until the T120 charts become T72 - at which point, I think an easterly could be called with 90% certainty. Right now for me, 40% certainty at best.

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Re the Atlantic ed - I note a propensity to amplify the cold trough into n America 10/14 days (again) but with less of a vortex close to Greenland, I wonder if this could drive a bigger sustained mid Atlantic amplification. Certainly a lack of strong anomolys back end week 2 so things could crop up like a greeny ridge. Far more likely to see these 'wedges' for the time being though.

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The cold and snowy theme continues on the models today - get ready, it's coming...

Oh no! don't say that! lol Easterlies are the least reliable synoptics to verify, it doesn't matter if you have total agreement at T144hrs.

 

I'd advise people to not get drawn into early celebrations. The easterly is coming when its shown within T96hrs and normally to be 100% sure its best to wait to T72hrs.

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Re the Atlantic ed - I note a propensity to amplify the cold trough into n America 10/14 days (again) but with less of a vortex close to Greenland, I wonder if this could drive a bigger sustained mid Atlantic amplification. Certainly a lack of strong anomolys back end week 2 so things could crop up like a greeny ridge. Far more likely to see these 'wedges' for the time being though.

That is exactly the hope - with the main strat vortex shoved over to russia - there could be enough in there for the UK. So far we have seen the positive height anomalies hogged by the Pacific. That is not neccessarily a bad thing - but only if the vortex is weak enough to also allow Atlantic based height rises. I'm sure we are reaping the rewards of the 1/2 SSW (my term!) earlier in the month.

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 the 1/2 SSW (my term!) earlier in the month.

Can that be posted in the Strat thread for technical referral?  :D

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST

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Whilst large parts of Europe are shown to have above average 2m temps over the next 8 days the UK will be seeing below average 2m temps

 

gfsanom_eu.png

 

Normal 2m temps left, expected 2m temps right

 

gfsnorm_eu.png gfssr_eu.png

 

Surely the top chart is mis leading.

If we want cold n/e or easterlies, then the above charts wont be that cold.

You would need to look at the temp anolomy  from say the 18th onwards.

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Oh no! don't say that! lol Easterlies are the least reliable synoptics to verify, it doesn't matter if you have total agreement at T144hrs.

 

I'd advise people to not get drawn into early celebrations. The easterly is coming when its shown within T96hrs and normally to be 100% sure its best to wait to T72hrs.

Are you expecting an easterly like that though nick? A Scandi high based easterly?

A euro trough of some kind seems reliable so that means we don't need a strong easterly to deliver wintry Sypnotics.

Plenty of water to flow under the mid term bridge at this stage though.

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