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Paul

Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...

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Ecm 00z op run is a STONKER..huge upgrade compared to yesterday's 0z, slider lows into entrenched cold pool would bring a snow fest, this run indicates snow, ice and lots of frosts too...B A N K :- )

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Well after spending time looking at the anomaly charts, NOAA last evening and ECMWF-GFS this morning I would not bet my house on just what is going to happen!

Colder than average is pretty clear, beyond that in the 1-15 day time frame and it is all somewhat unclear. The 500mb flow will be north of west but I still cannot see any solid signal for any major burst of Arctic air.

Will an upper ridge be W/NW/N or NE of the UK say in the 7-15 day time scale? Impossible to say. The flow does ease off after the next few days so the storms current and recent look to not be repeated after early next week and it is going to be on the cold side for the UK. Frost for many at night but how much, if any, and where/when/etc snow beyond then is impossible to predict.

usual links below

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

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Just to add a word of caution that the meto aren't expecting any significant cold even though they're expecting below average temps, so until this changes the likelihood is that some of the more appealing permutations (like the GFSP) won't verify, though some cold is likely to. I only say this as they've been right on the money so far and it's important to bear in mind before running away with the possibilities.

 

:nonono:

 

Ill go with the professionals. Charts look good, but we've all been here before.

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The models this morning remind me why it is such great fun being having meterology as a hobby. Not only do we have such varied weather but the way it is prone to change.

 

Looking at this mornings models I am going to be concentrating on 3 seperate aspects in the following order.

 

1. Make sure the trend towards slider LPs, rise in pressure to our N/NE continues in the output.

 

2. Once 1 has been established concentrate on the tracks of these slider LPs..

 

3. After 2 I shall be looking to see whether a classic E,ly will develop i.e very cold uppers, snow showers. The ECM hints at this but this mornings UKMO +144 is probably the best output for this because as the trough sinks a strong E/NE,ly flow would develop.

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Very interesting synoptics occurring in the Mid timeframe. Reminding me of January 2013 this is where we saw only the modest height rises over Scandi and the undercutter low to deliver the goods. Goes to show it doesn't necessarily take a lot to make an event happen. 

Interesting also that the Parallels predecessor is having a final say before it retires of sinking the high and a return to Westerlies!! Stereotypical old GFS lol.

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:nonono:

 

Ill go with the professionals. Charts look good, but we've all been here before.

Of course we have been in this situation before.....and it has turned cold too as well as not.The proffessionals look at model output too but do not forecast after every 6z output.They will update their site today and it will be trending colder after the 00zs i feel.The best model output of the winter and it is going to get colder.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

That floats my boat or sledge actually.

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De Bilt ECM ensembles a significant shift to colder....

 

pluim_06260_0_00_60.png

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Well well just woken up and what can i say but these charts Especially ecm and ukmo are unbelievable! ! Snow chances today and even more for the end of the week!!

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How do the GFS Operational run, the parallel run and the control run often show such big differences in output?

GFS is the American answer to the Met Office? Are the same team of people working on the same models or do they have different teams? just find it strange how 3 totally different types of weather in terms of models can come out of the same building

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Those who wrote off winter must be feeling pretty embarrassed now

Some stunning charts, frontal snow, sliders, easterly, all in FI admittedly, but the trend is for colder weather

The cold heart of winter is coming

Be careful, the cold hasn't happened yet!!

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Well well just woken up and what can i say but these charts Especially ecm and ukmo are unbelievable! ! Snow chances today and even more for the end of the week!!

The raw UKMO solution only currently a 20% PROB based on EC and MOGREPS EPS. So for now, while noting the possibility, Exeter have modified operational GM towards the inter-model consensus.

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Be careful, the cold hasn't happened yet!!

 

Yes a surface high enabled slider is a lot riskier than a blocking high undercut. The ECM op after D8 is usually an outlier when cold charts are posted and...

 

  MattHugo81

Some support for the 00z ECM more blocked solution but generally an outlier by 240hrs in particular. Interesting potential ahead though.

13/01/2015 09:29

 

...Only about 25% support from the GEFS for the ECM scenario. So an outsider at the moment however the mean 850s for London continue to be forecast to remain 2-3c below 30 year averages so a colder period upcoming is likely.

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Most importantly the percentages are going up supporting a cold outlook.that is the key this morning, mild sectors are snuffed out as time goes on..all roads lead to cold.

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And the upgrades keep coming via gfs!! Amazing upgrade with the atlantic ridge and more of a northerly flow even at 102 hours on the parallel!!!

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The raw UKMO solution only currently a 20% PROB based on EC and MOGREPS EPS. So for now, while noting the possibility, Exeter have modified operational GM towards the inter-model consensus.

 

That doesn't surprise me at all. 

 

Every now and then we get a day when all of the models (that we have access to), show us a colder solution and tend to be outliers among their own ensemble suite. 

 

It's the law of averages that every once in a while the solutions that make up the various ''Operational'' runs , seen by most of us just so happen to all be the coldest solutions on offer and I think that's what has happened today. 

 

I would expect that there is some truth in the 20% output and more truth in the 80%, as per usual where the two meet will likely be the outcome , so to that end I would think that more of the same, but with a weakened Jet , lending to the probability or a more North westerly feed , interspersed with drier conditions, but overall slightly colder than ''average'' but nothing extreme , in fact plain winter fare for this time of year

Edited by EML Network

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It should be noted that the ecm extended post T300 trend towards less euro trough influence with what appears a more wsw regime. Though weak pointers allow for varying solutions to take precedence. I would expect the london ens to show an uptick in T2 maxes late on although it's feasible that many members involve a surface high over s uk which would return low temps aswell.

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It should be noted that the ecm extended post T300 trend towards less euro trough influence with what appears a more wsw regime. Though weak pointers allow for varying solutions to take precedence. I would expect the london ens to show an uptick in T2 maxes late on although it's feasible that many members involve a surface high over s uk which would return low temps aswell.

please dont mention anything to do with an uptick in temperatures bluearmy!! Lets just enjoy what happens before then!

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Interesting!...slider heading for Biscay. Better wedge of HP to our North.

gfs-0-150.png?6

Edited by Shrimper

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please dont mention anything to do with an uptick in temperatures bluearmy!! Lets just enjoy what happens before then!

 

fully agree, lets get the cold in first! instead of worring about WSW'lys in deepest even beyond FI

 

Frosty has the spirit!

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Most importantly the percentages are going up supporting a cold outlook.that is the key this morning, mild sectors are snuffed out as time goes on..all roads lead to cold.

I wish I had your sat nav Frosty cos the roads I've got usually lead to slate grey skies and temps of 8c for 24hrs of the day. :D

 

Some promise for something a bit chillier in the charts today but we are a long way from a sustained cold spell.

 

The 06zP at t120 has the pattern slightly further west and the colder air digging south earlier. So far so good.

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please dont mention anything to do with an uptick in temperatures bluearmy!! Lets just enjoy what happens before then!

Just one run shaky and plenty of winter to get through before then!

I wouldn't know what it points to - possibly just waiting for a pattern to emerge if it repeats again later. Of course, it may just be one of those runs and a more definitive signal for week 3 may appear later.

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The 06z op and P suggest from the weekend the UK within a disrupting trough in a cold slack upper flow (850s). Suggests very cold days and nights more of a concern than bouts of heavy snow. Though snow showers possible.

 

P at D6 and D7: post-14819-0-88757000-1421144860_thumb.ppost-14819-0-49870900-1421144860_thumb.p

 

 

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I think Jan has some surprises up its sleeve like December but don't expect deep cold,,,,until backend when SSW effects will be showing in the models 

 

BFTP

 

 

 

I'm also/really focussing on my period 20/21.  Another stormy spell around then, LP/s likely not to be as deep but could be more of a player/s as I anticipate developments to our E/NE [could be a HP or it could be heights trying to build] to induce a more southerly track with even sub lows going into near continent thus affecting more of the UK [direct hit] and a negative tilt so a SE'ly flow could develop.    I think the current warming may assist in such a development that may then lead to a winter kick start for end of month into Feb.  It could all be further north if it pans out which is another kettle of fish.  Talk of Feb I'm thinking that the PV will drop this side of the hemisphere and a very cold volatile regime will set in.  Winds from NW to NE quadrant.

 

 

Above to show just where I'm coming from and are posts made I made in seasonal thread

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GFS 00z negative tilt and HP building to our north east and SE Flow developing

 

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GFS (P) 00z negative tilt with HP to our NE and SE flow developing

 

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ECM negative tilt and HP to NE but trough further east

 

 

Finally in deep FI on 00z GFS.......PV shifted to 'our' side?

 

 

 

airpressure.pngNice to see and the general idea in my thoughts and ramblings.  I hope the trend continues

 

BFTP

 

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST

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