Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Sign in to follow this  
Paul

Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...

Recommended Posts

So hands up if you thought GFS op and GFSp would show an Easterly within the 10 day time-frame tonight.  :cold:

 

Anyone?  :unknw:

 

Even NAVGEM showing an interest.

 

navgemnh-0-144.png?12-23

 

It must be right! :D

I was/am expecting trough disruption/negative tilt and have been for a while 

 

BFTP

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Latest faxes are in line with raw ukgm modelling.

Fridays little shortwave now an occlusion which doesn't look very potent to me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We don't have to wait that long for that, snow for Northern Ireland/SW/Midlands/Northern England at day 1!

 

Absolutely Barry. This week cant be ignored for sure and there could be more snow about this week than the last winter in total.

 

I was just commenting on perhaps a more definate spell, where it lasts a few days/week etc with 'full cold' rather than this changing scenario we have this week with pesky warm sectors.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So hands up if you thought GFS op and GFSp would show an Easterly within the 10 day time-frame tonight.  :cold:

 

Anyone?  :unknw:

 

Even NAVGEM showing an interest.

 

navgemnh-0-144.png?12-23

 

It must be right! :D

 

 

Well I did post in my status update that all we need is high pressure to rise to our NE to give southern areas a higher chance of snow than this week and I did post the GEM model which was the only model going for a pressure rise to our NE before dropping it but now other models are starting to bring that idea back.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I said it  when i saw both 96hr charts, the pattern was further west, with slightly better heights over greenie and low was more negatively tilted. looking at both 144 charts tonight i wouldn't bet against tomorrows outputs being even better than tonights, if that high is slightly more west and stronger we will get even more energy underneath and will stop the azores poking its nose in, so we will get subsequent undercuts instead of energy sinking the block.

 

Ah but did you expect it before the output began? I certainly didn't even if the possibility had been modelled here and there before. Well done if you did.

 

I was/am expecting trough disruption/negative tilt and have been for a while 

 

BFTP

 

Yes trough disruption SE has been showing for a while but it is till a long way from there to an Easterly, if you were expecting it well done.

 

Fingers crossed for tomorrow because it may well disappear again - I won't ask for a show of hands on that.  :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Very encouraging to see the pattern being backed West on the modelling. Hope this isn't just a GFS pub run, hic.

Big day model watching tomorrow for coldies.

 

gfsnh-0-168.png?18

I totally agree with you there. I heard the Azores high had its green card approved and think it's migration will hopefully prove to be the big game changer.

Having recently moved back to the uk from living in s.Spain for 2 years, even the locals were surprised at the recent lengthy dry and hot years experienced. Hope they are ready for the comparable chiller.

I certainly am looking forward to the spell coming up as got sooo bored of the constant blue skies down there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well I did post in my status update that all we need is high pressure to rise to our NE to give southern areas a higher chance of snow than this week and I did post the GEM model which was the only model going for a pressure rise to our NE before dropping it but now other models are starting to bring that idea back.

 

Yes a few people were alert to the possibilities but I was surprised that both the Op and GFSp would show such quick evolution to an Easterly type in tonight's output.

Of course we had better not get too attached to the idea of it becoming reality yet, still a long way to go but exciting for coldies.

Edited by Mucka

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Maybe the old GFS will go out in a blaze of glory! To be taken up by the GFS P which with its first solo single goes straight in at No 1 on the Cold And Snow Lovers Chart.

 

Unfortunately my efforts to find which outputs NCEP prefer for the shortwave near the northern plains have come to nothing, both GFS's develop this more than the ECM or UKMO, this engages low heights over west Greenland favourably, the ECM doesn't do this, the UKMO has a more developed shortwave but is flatter upstream and runs this into the PV chunk sending the energy east.

 

The areas in the firing line just highlight uncertainty although they expect the trend to be shortwaves starting off in Canada but with time dropping further south in track towards the Great Lakes.

 

So hopefully in the morning we get some agreement and hope that the GFS's are correct!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS this evening certainly in tandem with the Jetstream profile forecast  - as I mentioned earlier, the jet is sinking way to our south and also becoming a much quieter affair - even BBC mentioned this, a solid building foundation for trough disruption to our SW and building heights to our NE. Someone mentioned Jan 2013 - a very similar set up occurred then.  Signs of the above are coming into the reliable with the position of the low pressure tracking to the SW on Friday - a definite sign of a pattern shift.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm not sure which channel low you mean. However the Friday solution that was looking v bothersome a few runs ago in UKMO-GM for S England now rated as 10% prob. Meanwhile, some further (mostly modest) snow accumulation does show again Thurs-early Fri in E4 for parts of upland S England (W Country/S-Central England/some S coastal districts).

I remember you saying it was unlikely , I would think the risk would be gone in the morn then.

Re Thursday and fri , iv been watching this develop and it looks more or less a complete re-run of tomorrow night . Certainly quite an unusual set up this wk with the word cold zonality been very apt for once and helps us to understand perhaps why some folk bang on about true cold zonality , the word is loosely used on hear normally with cold and cool been mixed up , but this wk it really is cold zonality .

What's your take on next wk Ian ? A Scandi/Iceland high is a real possibility it seems ? Thanks :)

Edited by Severe Siberian icy blast

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hmmm not sure what GFS has been on bu the ensembles are in a total state of confusion with all sorts on offer by day 4/5.

Here is just some of the variety. Shannon entropy is back?

 

gensnh-1-1-120.pnggensnh-3-1-120.pnggensnh-6-1-120.pnggensnh-7-1-120.pnggensnh-10-1-120.png

 

And I picked those from just the first 10 solutions!


All important London ensembles from ECM, a little colder than 00z I think?

 

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

 

And latest Euro4

 

15011400_1212.gif15011406_1212.gif15011409_1212.gif

Edited by Mucka

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have some news re the MJO , NCEP have updated their weekly outlook and tonights update suggests the MJO will make it to the western Hemisphere which is phase 8, although its amplitude is expected to weaken but it is expected to remain active for the next two weeks, depending on speed that could mean it reaches phase 1.

 

This does conflict somewhat with some of models which have it entering the COD either before or just as it reaches phase 8, indeed that update also conflicts with the GEFS bias corrected and GEFS normal.

 

Its a little confusing given their own products aren't really supporting that, they use both statistical and dynamic modelling which might explain the apparent conflict.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hmmm not sure what GFS has been on bu the ensembles are in a total state of confusion with all sorts on offer by day 4/5.

Here is just some of the variety. Shannon entropy is back?

 

gensnh-1-1-120.pnggensnh-3-1-120.pnggensnh-6-1-120.pnggensnh-7-1-120.pnggensnh-10-1-120.png

 

And I picked those from just the first 10 solutions!

All important London ensembles from ECM, a little colder than 00z I think?

 

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

 

And latest Euro4

 

15011400_1212.gif15011406_1212.gif15011409_1212.gif

Its all to do with the small low that goes through the azores high at 78hr, some emembles take it over the top stopping heights rising towards Greenland. Can't imagine the ops being wrong at day 3.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As Mucka says above. Chaos reigns in the GEFS. FI starts at days 5 and 6 tonight!! Its been a very long time since we have been able to say that.

The irony is that some runs are pulling easterlies in so fast that there is no cold air to draw on. We really could do with a northerly push first.

Interesting times !!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS MEAN ENS at 150 a large swing to the OPS

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015011218/gens-21-1-156.png

 

For example the control-

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015011218/gens-0-1-156.png

 

& runs like this out to 180 seem to be a common theme.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=156&code=7&mode=0&carte=1

 

Can we finally get winter started.

 

Whats clear tonight is either thge Euros or GFS will be tainted by another poor performance, the odds are stacked against the GFS, however the few times that the GFS has pulled off a coup has been where its delivered the same evolution run after run with the euros finally coming on board....

 

S

GEM 12Z ensembles are offering strong support at 180 hours tonight. Maybe the GEM takes the credit this time as it was first to hint a couple of days ago.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS 18z parallel can now be added to the list of very good runs today / tonight for us long suffering coldies, especially those down south, this run is in my opinion the most wintry gfs p so far, it's a great way to end the day..looking forward to the 00z with even higher anticipation now..could this be the time when winter really gets into full swing..I'm thinking yes our time has almost come :-) pattern change on the way :-)

post-4783-0-08754000-1421106339_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-93220300-1421106348_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-12436100-1421106358_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-80526800-1421106366_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-43715600-1421106376_thumb.pn

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well all I can say is this is a lesson for all of us and it's what keeps us watching. Things can change very quickly with the models and we should remember that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good morning everyone.

 

Latest GFS and GFS parallel output.

Both GFS and GFSp develop the shortwave/low less this morning and have it tracking well West of the UK more toward Portugal so the channel low scenario looks unlikely. (According to GFS at least)

 

gfsnh-0-96.png?0gfsnh-0-96.png?0

 

However other than making less of the shortwave the Op and parallel are pretty consistent with last nights runs, out to day 5/6 at least.

 

gfsnh-0-144.png?0gfsnh-0-144.png?0

 

So what about UKMO?

Well that has the low a little more formed and consequently tracking more East so the Channel low scenario isn't quite dead according to it.

 

UN120-21.GIF?13-05

 

You will also remember it was mush less keen to disrupt energy SE through the UK from the next low then GFS and even ECM

Well, could this be a "Eurika!" moment for our Winter?

 

UN144-21.GIF?13-05

 

 

I will be back with an update of GFS, GFSp etc shortly.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...