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Paul

Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...

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Taking a look at the Jetstream forecasts can give a good clue to likely developments in these scenarios and the latest shows the jet coming unstuck to the west dipping well to the south which would be ripe for pressure build to the NE - not saying this is going to happen, but it perhaps isn't a surprise to see at least one of the major models i.e. GFS showing such a possibility.

 

Lots of possibilities as we head into the weekend - but the general theme is for weaker heights to the NE and more generally to the NW with the jet digging well to the south.

 

I would agree the ECM output does look rather odd with a flabby low pressure but even this confirms the general trend mentioned above.

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Hi BA.

 

Only one run and also out at D10 but it just looked flatter to me than of late. Even compared to the GEFS mean it looks flatter? 

 

attachicon.gifECH101-240.gif  GEFS Mean: attachicon.gifgensnh-21-5-240.png

 

 

 

Last nights EC 12z mean: attachicon.gifEDH101-240.gif  tonights op for the same time: attachicon.gifECH101-216.gif

Then looking at the ECM anomaly chart at face value there's certainly worse charts out there. With a deep trough to our East you would think that's a cold trough we'r been dictated too by. Always have the chance of northerly outbreaks from that position ?

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I think if we are to see something substantially colder during week 2, we need to start seeing it in the ECM extended ensembles for Debilt. We are still waiting for this.

And we have lift off. Extended ecm ensembles for debilt go COLD!!

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Amazing how the met office with their multi million pound computers and hundreds of Millions from the taxpayer have got it so massively wrong

They forecast westerlies and South westerlies for the next couple of weeks, when it is very clear that the UK is heading into the freezer in a way not seen for a couple of years

Edited by John Snow

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Well for what its worth ive been threw all the stats and material regarding the"[email protected],mfi,tru and tgif and im lost!my best punt would be a continuation of the unsettled weather with a wnw flow giving cold-cool conditions.chance of ridging to the north east be it slight imo

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And we have lift off. Extended ecm ensembles for debilt go COLD!!

Am i mis-reading them?

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/pluim_06260_0_12_60.png

 

 

No i am not they are cold.....damn computer  :D my favourites link had not updated but when i posted it they have.

Edited by winterof79

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I do believe what we are seeing in the model output is associated with the downwelling heatflux from the moderate to 

strong warming we have had higher up. The more longer term amplified outputs could be a combination of this and 

perhaps MJO wave imput.

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The cold and snowy theme continues on the models today, with no mild weather in sight. A week ago today, people were talking about how it was going to be mild and zonal for the rest of January, and were writing of cold as we didn't have a SSW. There is still no SSW and yet we are looking at a week at least of cold and snow, possibly longer than that if the GFS is too be believed. It goes to show how predicting more than a week out in the UK is very difficult, and the people posting day 10-16 charts last week as proof of the mild zonal weather continuing, might finally realize this, can't say holding my breath though  :nonono: 

Edited by Barry95

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Amazing how the met office with their multi million pound computers and hundreds of Millions from the taxpayer have got it so massively wrong

They forecast westerlies and South westerlies for the next couple of weeks, when it is very clear that the UK is heading into the freezer in a way not seen for a couple of years

'Going into the freezer' is a bit over exaggerated :)

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Amazing how the met office with their multi million pound computers and hundreds of Millions from the taxpayer have got it so massively wrong

They forecast westerlies and South westerlies for the next couple of weeks, when it is very clear that the UK is heading into the freezer in a way not seen for a couple of years

So you have seen into the future - to deem we're 'going into the freezer' might be tad premature, but a colder prospect is becoming a stronger bet. (sorry only just seen the above posts). :)

Edited by Froze were the Days

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Amazing how the met office with their multi million pound computers and hundreds of Millions from the taxpayer have got it so massively wrong

They forecast westerlies and South westerlies for the next couple of weeks, when it is very clear that the UK is heading into the freezer in a way not seen for a couple of years

err

 

 

UK Outlook for Saturday 17 Jan 2015 to Monday 26 Jan 2015:

Remaining unsettled, showery and rather cold through Saturday. The showers will be heaviest and most frequent in the north and west and falling as snow across the hills, with wintry showers to low levels at times in the north. There will be some drier and brighter weather too, particularly across sheltered eastern parts, however there is a risk of more prolonged rain for a time in the south. It will be windy for most areas, with the risk of gales in the north and west. A quieter and drier interlude will likely develop on Sunday. The following week will see further changeable conditions, with spells of wet and windy weather interspersed by clearer, colder and showery interludes, bringing a risk of frost and snow at times.

Looks pretty representative of the current output.

850s look pretty cold throughout (-3C to -5C) according to the ECM ens, though too marginal to bring lying snow. Still many could see snowfall.

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Just because the de bilt end are going colder, I would not say the METO have it wrong. They have been pretty spot on so far this winter. The south westerlies they said look possible were predicted at around 15 days in advance, they can't be blamed for getting anything wrong at that length ahead. If they have it wrong that is.

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'Going into the freezer' is a bit over exaggerated :)

 

 

Precisely MPG, a few folk have used that terminology tonight, all I'd suggest is that we are heading into a refrigerator rather than a freezer. :D  We need a balance in here between modelled expectations and the actual reality. IMBYism adds additional fuel to one's expectations but that aside, let's keep things real please. Back to Model Output Discussion which I'll leave to others as I've previously added my own thoughts and views in previous posts.

Edited by gottolovethisweather

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Looks like Northern Ireland going to take the worst of the midweek storm with gusts around 100 mph in the early hours of thursday unless gfs is over-doing it.

 

post-2839-0-71956300-1421098346_thumb.gipost-2839-0-66071600-1421098344_thumb.gi

 

 

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i just hope that the gfs/p begin to smell the ecm ext ens coffee over the next few runs so that we begin to see the trough sunk across europe. the ecm extended playing the same tune but the lowest anomoly now at day 10 (-186gpm) and just into nw uk by that point. it continues se to sit n italy by T324 (-150gpm) it remains in situ, weakening somewhat to -110gpm but remaining centred switzerland. clearly a low anomoly of that magnitude in that location will play some part in delivering cold conditions to the uk.

 

unfortunately, naefs is stuck at day 6 so cant see if it is going to trend further towards the ecm in week 2.

 

if the ecm ens were flip flopping then  i wouldnt be banging their drum on this so much. they are consistent and the de bilt ens perhaps recognise that the clustering may be reducing in variance .

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The cold and snowy theme continues on the models today, with no mild weather in sight. A week ago today, people were talking about how it was going to be mild and zonal for the rest of January, and were writing of cold as we didn't have a SSW. There is still no SSW and yet we are looking at a week at least of cold and snow, possibly longer than that if the GFS is too be believed. It goes to show how predicting more than a week out in the UK is very difficult, and the people posting day 10-16 charts last week as proof of the mild zonal weather continuing, might finally realize this, can't say holding my breath though  :nonono:

There was still a rather strong warming which would have led to a SSW, if the vortex had not already been split at the time. I think I said at the time that the SSW may not matter because of the volatility of the vortex this winter and that may just prove the case with the Atlantic and Pacific sectors possibly reversing in fortunes. The weakening of the vortex shouldn't be dismissed though Barry just because a SSW didn't occur.

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