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Paul

Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...

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Well at 192 hrs on the ecm anything looks possible going forward???Notice the low heights draining away!Something a foot in the nh profile i just dont know what tho tbh???216 chart is odd but intriguing

Edited by swfc

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ECM looks as flat as it has been for a while at D9: post-14819-0-88799400-1421088757_thumb.g  post-14819-0-19422600-1421088782_thumb.g

 

JMA not without interest at D8: post-14819-0-68800500-1421088848_thumb.g

 

 

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post-6981-0-71406900-1421089027_thumb.jp

post-6981-0-29364000-1421089036_thumb.jp

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What's the surprise with ecm day 9. Pretty well bang in line with it's ens from the 00z and the 12z gefs.

The Gfs ops may be sniffing something with the amplification but it's doubtful it will affect the bigger picture. The question is how far SW can the trough back day 10 onwards.

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From the 96 hour mark ecm looks slightly odd imo.It looses the trigger low but then all the energy drains away.The 240hr chart leaves the uk in almost  a col and to me looks really strange??? :pardon:

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From the 96 hour mark ecm looks slightly odd imo.It looses the trigger low but then all the energy drains away.The 240hr chart leaves the uk in almost  a col and to me looks really strange??? :pardon:

 

Indeed. I don't buy into the surface specifics but I sense a pattern change of sorts longer-term. 

Edited by gottolovethisweather

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EC 12 is quite passable with pressure continually rising over Scandinavia, all the way though as the Jet stays on a NW to SE axis, keeping sub -4 850's for almost all of the period. A slight shift and we have 5-8 days of cold weather to look forward to with snow.

Very similar to the GFS runs imho

post-6326-0-41691800-1421089484_thumb.gi

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The ecm op is the most supported run of the day at T216 ???????????????????????

 

When an op run fits its mean and anomlys, the comment is usually - ' good to see continuity from a model'. because it doesnt go off on the amplification route its clearly wrong ???????  is that what we should preach on here ?

 

some sense from mr iceberg.

Edited by Osbourne One-Nil
So everyone can be friends

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Id have thought the ecm wasnt toobad, not as progressive as the gfs but plenty of snow risk for a longer period.

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Lots going on tonight it seems, all sorts of colder solutions on the table. Certainly an interesting model check when i got in from work.

 

This one caught my attention for Friday, needs watching for those in the southern half of the UK. But plenty of other things  to keep us interested eh! GFS Para being one lol.

 

Rmgfs871.gif

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EC 12 is quite passable with pressure continually rising over Scandinavia, all the way though as the Jet stays on a NW to SE axis, keeping sub -4 850's for almost all of the period. A slight shift and we have 5-8 days of cold weather to look forward to with snow.

Very similar to the GFS runs imho

Take a look at that ECM chart, does that look realistic? An area of 995mb to 1000mb covering hundreds and hundreds of square miles to North of UK?

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Lots going on tonight it seems, all sorts of colder solutions on the table. Certainly an interesting model check when i got in from work.

 

This one caught my attention for Friday, needs watching for those in the southern half of the UK. But plenty of other things  to keep us interested eh! GFS Para being one lol.

 

Rmgfs871.gif

 

It is that very feature which is causing all the turmoil I reckon, the means and ensembles spreads should point to where FI lies right now across all NWP outputs which I'd punt at being Friday as previously stated.

 

Certain members have referred to surprise snowfalls and Channel Lows (which I've also mentioned) of late and potentially it is these developments that are muddying the water somewhat. I think beyond the weekend, there will be further complications, but before that, every weather event known to UK weather is likely to occur so much to watch.

 

Stay tuned guys n gals and please stick to forum guidance and rules, let's play friendly and a request to use PM when questioning other members, where at possible please.  :friends:

Edited by gottolovethisweather

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Take a look at that ECM chart, does that look realistic? An area of 995mb to 1000mb covering hundreds and hundreds of square miles to North of UK?

 

once you're north of the PFJ, yes kev. anyway, ops post day 7 shouldnt be dissected.

 

and sorry SWFC if you think i was abrupt but when you post about a run as it comes out but you really mean the one issued 12 hours ago ..........................

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Well, not the ECM most were hoping for.

 

For the snow starved South & SE its pretty ropey - just more of the same cold rain.

 

However IMBY aside, the other side of the coin points to a generally wintry picture for the UK, especially if you have some elevation in the North & North west.

Generally North west flow, polar Maritime air points to below average temps & bouts of rain sleet & snow.

 

Still hope for us southerners, however for the ECM it would rely on that trough getting south of the UK introducing the continental flow...

 

Fingers crossed the GFS has got it right which would be a coup as its heights over Scandi the problem area.

 

S

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Time we had some Ecm eye candy, this 12z run is much better than the 00z regarding cold and snow potential, plenty of cold uppers throughout, combine this with the Gfs 0z / 6z & 12z parallel.. coldies have more reasons to be optimistic about where this winter is heading, and I hope it's ultimately heading into the FREEZER!

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post-4783-0-42571300-1421090418_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-35450300-1421090429_thumb.pn

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Take a look at that ECM chart, does that look realistic? An area of 995mb to 1000mb covering hundreds and hundreds of square miles to North of UK?

 

I am not saying it will occur, as it wont imho, but given the lack of Jet in that area, we get a large slack area of pressure, ie prime for pressure build. The col existing from surface up through the 500 layer so represents stability though the atmosphere.

Its just a model, it shows the laws of physics ergo its possible, given the 240 timeframe caveats.

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I think when the models will begin many solutions its often a sign of a pattern change.

 

Just look at the AO spreads.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

 

Anywhere from +3 to -4.

 

I would love the GFS to be onto something but in my opinion the ECM is the way we will go, A gradual height rise other Scandi as the Atlantic begins to ease.

 

I dont think for the time being a big blocking high in Greenland or Scandi but we might see just enough blocking to channel some proper cold to the UK. There was a time a couple if years back cant remember exactly when, where we had very modest blocking around Iceland and we managed to get a decent cold spell out of it. 

Edited by seabreeze86

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attachicon.gifimage.jpg

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

What's the surprise with ecm day 9. Pretty well bang in line with it's ens from the 00z and the 12z gefs.

The Gfs ops may be sniffing something with the amplification but it's doubtful it will affect the bigger picture. The question is how far SW can the trough back day 10 onwards.

 

 

Hi BA.

 

Only one run and also out at D10 but it just looked flatter to me than of late. Even compared to the GEFS mean it looks flatter? 

 

post-14819-0-31101800-1421091188_thumb.g  GEFS Mean: post-14819-0-76838600-1421091187_thumb.p

 

 

 

Last nights EC 12z mean: post-14819-0-84156900-1421091351_thumb.g  tonights op for the same time: post-14819-0-23250100-1421091361_thumb.g

Edited by i'm dreaming of...

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I think when the models will begin many solutions its often a sign of a pattern change.

 

Just look at the AO spreads.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

 

Anywhere from +3 to -4.

 

I would love the GFS to be onto something but in my opinion the ECM is the way we will go, A gradual height rise other Scandi as the Atlantic begins to ease.

 

I dont think for the time being a big blocking high in Greenland or Scandi but we might see just enough blocking to channel some proper cold to the UK. There was a time a couple if years back cant remember exactly when, where we had very modest blocking around Iceland and we managed to get a decent cold spell out of it. 

You are correct about the blocking and i think it was winter 2011-2012.A well respected guy on her GP picked up on this early doors and ran with it.Suprisigly he got some stick due to the moderate area of pressure ,strength and even colour on the mo!!!Yes it woudnt take much to throw this scenario up and would be much welcomed as it provided"imby"a good spell of snowy cold weather.Given the output today id go with a wnw direction for the foreseable and still maintain the 12z ecm looks out of kilter esp at the "latter"part.

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I think if we are to see something substantially colder during week 2, we need to start seeing it in the ECM extended ensembles for Debilt. We are still waiting for this.

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What goes around comes around

 

Running the ext GEFS anomaly  for three days finds the deep trough orientated NW/SE with the UK into Europe with the ridge SW of the UK change a tad as the Greenland trough reemerges and the trough to the east moves south. Leading to a surface scenario HP eastern Europe, cut off low southern Europe and our old friends LP to the NW and HP to the SW bringing a westerly flow over the UK. This becomes more NW later as the LP becomes more influential and to temps go from average to below

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Edited by knocker

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Although GFS shows a little more promise tonight, without backing of ECM and with Met Office Monthly Outlook pretty much indicating a similar theme to what we have now with maybe more settled weather in the South by end of the month I just have feeling that the cold spell most on here(including me) will remain elusive. That is probably the natural pessimist in me(following Spurs for 35years has done that!!).That said maybe the GFS can start a positive trend and seeing a few more posts from Mr Murr hints that maybe, just maybe, the Uk could be on the brink of a cold spell. Just need the Heights to rise to NE,AH to stay West and continue to move W/NW and lower heights to be maintained over Northern Italy.Then Bingo LOL 

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A much colder evolution becoming apparent from todays models with snow even at low levels in the south of the Uk during the next 36hrs., the ecm and gfs although keeping it rather cold differ at T+168 with the gfs  building pressure to the northeast of us over Scandinavia, lets see if its there tomorrow... :cc_confused:

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post-6830-0-83685700-1421092870_thumb.pn

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