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Paul

Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...

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Next Monday is looking very interesting for snow, enjoy this eye candy!!:

 

 

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Monday ^^

 

 

 

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That is one hell of a snow spell we'd be buried alive!! :shok:  :cold: :cold:

 

This is from GFS BTW.

Edited by pip22

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Never seen this criticism before regarding the UKMO output, I always thought this was a more GFS bias:

 

NCEP diagnostic discussion update:

 

SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WED & THU

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

PREFERENCE: GFS/NAM/CANADIAN COMPROMISE

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 00Z ECMWF IS A SLOW OUTLIER, EVEN WHEN COMPARED TO ITS

ENSEMBLE MEAN, WITH THIS SYSTEM.  AS THE PARENT SHORTWAVE IS

MOVING MOVING THROUGH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW, A FASTER SOLUTION MAKES

MORE SENSE ANYWAY.  HOWEVER, THE 00Z UKMET IS ON THE FAST SIDE OF

THE GUIDANCE, WHICH IS ITS USUAL BIAS.  A COMPROMISE THE 12Z

GFS/12Z NAM/00Z CANADIAN IS ADVISED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

The latest UKMO looks a bit progressive to move the European trough from 120-144 hours. I think the fax charts may see some correction by the forecaster at 120 hours to show a stronger trough resistance.

 C

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Not buying it one bit from the gfs, we have had a few Stella charts during this winter already only for them to disappear. Until all the models sing from the same sheet, it's in a realiable time scale and the met are on board then it's all worthless. But the weather is far from boring so hopefully the gfs is gonna be the leader tonight and bring the other models round to the idea.

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Some much better charts, but from a personal standpoint this winter and last have rather knocked the stuffing out of my confidence in such things coming to pass unless the MetO extended outlook points to the same. It does seem to me, having been on sites like this for many years now, that the Met are getting better and better at predicting out beyond 10 days. Somewhere along the line I'm sure we will have a sudden forecast reversal at short or medium range once again, but with the Met not seeing anything noticeably cold for the foreseeable then I find it hard to swallow these current charts.

 

The current signal for raised heights to our north is directly linked to predicted ongoings in the strat. This was seen a while ago. But the vortex is set to reform, all be it with a less powerful Canadian profile I think - so the medium term outlook for snow starved winter pilgrims does not look all that great to me.

 

In the shorter term the next 7 - 10 days will at least bring something of winter interest to some, even if rather transient away from high ground.

 

(Desperately hoping for this post to be shoved straight where it hurts by the gloriously unpredictable British weather.)

Edited by Catacol_Highlander

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GFS parallel is an outlier from Day 7 on the short ensembles, hopefully its a trendsetter. The OP sits nicely within the rest of the Peturbs so maybe its more realistic. Either way the both show snow for large areas of the UK.

 

graphe3_1000_291_10___.gif

 

All eyes on ECM!

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Not buying it one bit from the gfs, we have had a few Stella charts during this winter already only for them to disappear. Until all the models sing from the same sheet, it's in a realiable time scale and the met are on board then it's all worthless. But the weather is far from boring so hopefully the gfs is gonna be the leader tonight and bring the other models round to the idea.

 

Yes the ensembles back this up. There is still no coherent or even worthwhile signal for a cold blocked spell to set up.

The Op and GFSp are probably more encouraging and we will have to hope they are onto something and we get enough amplification to send some energy SE under and ridge that develops to maintain some heights to our NE that could then build into a block proper.

Failing that the signal is for low pressure to disrupt SE through the UK anyway so there should at least be more transient snow possibilities around again early next week. The chances of the sort of cold Nick is calling for are not supported in the output as yet though.

 

As stated around a week ago, the 3rd week of Jan will likely be a messy synoptic with a window of opportunity for something better to develop and what occurs will dictate the weather pattern into February. Most likely scenario thus far is for the changeable more unsettled conditions to resume in the 4th week after somewhat chillier quieter spell on the whole in the 3rd week. (After the storm!!)

It is nice to to at least have a shot at something better though, hopefully ECM can pick up the baton.

If the signal does gain strength it could be quite a tortuous and precarious evolution to any spell of more sustained deeper cold with all the drama and ups and downs of a soap opera likely to unfold within this forum - can't wait.  :crazy:

Edited by Mucka

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Some much better charts, but from a personal standpoint this winter and last have rather knocked the stuffing out of my confidence in such things coming to pass unless the MetO extended outlook points to the same. It does seem to me, having been on sites like this for many years now, that the Met are getting better and better at predicting out beyond 10 days. Somewhere along the line I'm sure we will have a sudden forecast reversal at short or medium range once again, but with the Met not seeing anything noticeably cold for the foreseeable then I find it hard to swallow these current charts.

 

The current signal for raised heights to our north is directly linked to predicted ongoings in the strat. This was seen a while ago. But the vortex is set to reform, all be it with a less powerful Canadian profile I think - so the medium term outlook for the snow starved winter pilgrims does not look all that great to me.

 

(Desperately hoping for this post to be shoved straight where it hurts by the gloriously unpredictable British weather.)

I'm hardly known for being overly optimistic but the UKMO extended forecast mentions colder interludes and continued chances for snow so I don't think the GFS is so outlandish. It's not as if they've forecasted mild sw'erlies.

 

Low heights to the nw doesn't preclude an easterly flow, we await the ECM with much interest. It might not go the whole hog in terms of the GFS's but even its 00hrs output had some potential.

Edited by nick sussex

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A few weeks ago we had the odd run that showed an Easterly and we had a lot of what people were calling "back slapping" going on.

Then the easterly disappeared.

So I'm not going overboard just yet!

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A couple or so posts have been moved over the the moans/ramp thread......so worth checking there if your post seems to disappear....ta

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GFS parallel is an outlier from Day 7 on the short ensembles, hopefully its a trendsetter. The OP sits nicely within the rest of the Peturbs so maybe its more realistic. Either way the both show snow for large areas of the UK.

 

graphe3_1000_291_10___.gif

 

All eyes on ECM!

 

Very low dispersion up to the 19th - so the GFS seems confident in it's own output.  A bit of cross model agreement will certainly increase the excitement levels for lots.

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IDO we have a very interesting 10 days coming up and a move toward a colder outlook beginning to show its hands with charts like this quite typical of the developments recently

attachicon.gifimage.jpgattachicon.gifimage.jpgattachicon.gifimage.jpg

I really find your comments quite amusing to be honest , not sure whether it's a wind up or your actually serious , Ian f mentioned nothing of the sort , he just mentioned the possibility of it drying out more so toward the South , which really opens the door to many possibilities , almost every possibility is on the table taking his comments on face value . But to pick a chart 2 wks away is bizarre to be honest .

 

Its nice to see the GFS P run but it is only one run and we need at least three similar runs before we can even have some hope it will verify. From D6 it is on it's own re cold uppers:

 

post-14819-0-29757500-1421085863_thumb.g

 

Looking at the GEFS, not much has changed from this morning. The D7 mean: post-14819-0-01639800-1421085973_thumb.p

 

Remember the GFS p is new and it matched the ECM with over amplifying re the late December toppler. So get three runs with it showing the colder outlook and get the ensembles onside and maybe a "colder outlook" will be a possibility. the control is not there yet but has moved towards the P so that is promising.

 

I am not sure if that was the last GFS 12z as the P takes centre stage tomorrow. The GEFS get upgraded in Q3 of this year.

Edited by i'm dreaming of...

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Well at least the ECM looks more like the GFS over the western Atlantic and nw USA than the UKMO at T96hrs. So hopefully that will be slower later on.

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Well at least the ECM looks more like the GFS over the western Atlantic and nw USA than the UKMO at T96hrs. So hopefully that will be slower later on.

 

Looks like the GFS operational at 120 Nick....almost identical in fact.

 

ECM1-120.GIF?12-0

 

Slower progression than the 0z

Edited by CreweCold

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...and of course the GFS P had the Atlantic low acting as a trigger at T120 when it linked up with the Scandi trough and dragged the lower heights over the UK:

 

post-14819-0-06755500-1421087056_thumb.p post-14819-0-64132400-1421087055_thumb.p

 

That allowed the Atlantic ridge time to build. None of the other models went with that trigger and ECM doesn't look like going that way either:

 

post-14819-0-50209800-1421087123_thumb.g

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Looks like the GFS operational at 120 Nick....almost identical in fact.

 

ECM1-120.GIF?12-0

 

Slower progression than the 0z

Unfortunately the GFS/ECM and UKMO all disagree with the shortwave over in the USA at T120hrs so I think the ECM is unlikely to deliver the GFS P output but still a chance that it will be better than the UKMO at T144hrs.

 

The ECM much better than the UKMO note the sharpness of the troughing to the west as opposed to the more football shaped UKMO troughing.

Edited by nick sussex

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Ecm more middle ground solution but more importantly slower than this morning 00z run so maybe it will come on board tomorrow morning!!

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ECM the middle ground

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015011212/ECH1-144.GIF?12-0

 

Not enough ridging ahead of the low- but not a disaster- still -6c in England.

 

S

 

And the surface feature picked up West of the Bay of Biscay at t+120hours simply disappears by t+144, not buying that. I'd imagine that could well be a developing secondary feature trailing in the wake of Thursday/Friday's low but much further South. In fact, Friday is where FI begins right now I would say.

 

EDIT: same feature is projected to head off towards Northwest Africa by then,hmm. Northern arm of the Jet also diving south again, certainly makes things intriguing beyond the weekend. This saga hasn't finished by any means yet.

Edited by gottolovethisweather

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I think we should discount the UKMO solution, its 00hrs Channel Low imploded within one output and so why should we think its right now.

 

If we remove the GFS P and blend the GFS and ECM I think that's a reasonable starting point.

 

Of course we'd love to see the GFS P being right but we can still manage some snow with the slider scenario and that way our expectations don't go through the roof.

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I really dont think the ecm is bad at all!! We looking at a snow event at 168 hours as low slides across the uk!! Push it further west in the morning run and well in business! !the main thing is its not as bad as the ukmo and the 00z output!!

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Liking this ECM this evening,PV chunk dropping towards the UK.?

 

post-2839-0-27638600-1421088270_thumb.gi

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I really dont think the ecm is bad at all!! We looking at a snow event at 168 hours as low slides across the uk!! Push it further west in the morning run and well in business! !the main thing is its not as bad as the ukmo and the 00z output!!

Theres still time for changes so you might be right the pattern might get edged a bit further west. The ECM might develop a stronger ridge to the ne in future outputs.

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