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Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...

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Chart of the day for me

gfs-0-174.png?12

Heavy snow showers piling into eastern England with that low moving south west through the low countries. 

gfs-2-174.png?12

 

Errrrrmmmm bank :)

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Its just so typical, the UKMO has to harpoon the feel good factor! Looks like my Christmas albums going back into storage!

Yes, without the UKMO being unboard, the GFS is just pie in the sky. In fact the UKMO has South Westerlies which was Fergieweather was saying was showing up in the longer range.

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Haha glad to hear a more positive Nick today mate !

Yes looking much better moving forward , a cold wk by any standards , and an interesting wkend aswel , much better model viewing for sure . Still finely balanced though and we need to see these charts echoed in the meto really , there models have been bang on the money so far , but yes positives going forward .

Just out of interest Nick , where do you live? Because if you live in France then iv never saw someone show so much interest in a country they don't actually live in lol !

My evil twin lives in the UK! lol We're psychically linked which means I share the pain and frustration of UK cold and snow lovers!

 

Yes it's bizarre and must seem strange but I still take more interest in your weather than mine down here. Both GFS's have a lot of potential, as for the UKMO I wish their computer had just broken down this evening  and not bothered coming out!

Edited by nick sussex

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Yes, without the UKMO being unboard, the GFS is just pie in the sky. In fact the UKMO has South Westerlies which was Fergieweather was saying was showing up in the longer range.

 

For what it's worth I think the GFS handles storm tracks much better within the 72hr period and as such it would make logical sense to me it's probably got a better idea on the next step going forward. (#strawclutch)

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I must be mad, but I quite like the Meto 144 chart. The high is being sucked up to Scandi, look at the low coming out of the state, elongation already occurring as the high is sucked NE. It is just a little behind the GFS, that is all.

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Yes, without the UKMO being unboard, the GFS is just pie in the sky. In fact the UKMO has South Westerlies which was Fergieweather was saying was showing up in the longer range.

 

The UKMO has only just backtracked on the Atlantic low's route so it maybe playing catch up. The GFS P is a cold run right up to T210 with lots of potential:

 

post-14819-0-28833700-1421080844_thumb.p

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Chart of the day for me

gfs-0-174.png?12

Heavy snow showers piling into eastern England with that low moving south west through the low countries.

gfs-2-174.png?12

Errrrrmmmm bank :)

Very interesting from gfs and gfsp.But not surprising.I will post charts when home but the GEFS were banging this drum a while ago for a pattern change 18-20th.Still may not happen though. Edited by winterof79

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I must be mad, but I quite like the Meto 144 chart. The high is being sucked up to Scandi, look at the low coming out of the state, elongation already occurring as the high is sucked NE. It is just a little behind the GFS, that is all.

was gona say the exact same thing mate!! Ukmo just few hours behind the both the gfss!!and just to make it clear there is no southwesterly on the ukmo!!

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Very interesting from gfs and gfsp.But not surprising.I will post charts when home but the GEFS were banging this drum a while ago for a pattern change 18-20th.Still may not happen though.

 

Yes things happening with the GFS at the moment:

 

  MJVentrice

Second day in a row where West Pac MJO is strongest event in my EVPM archive. No analogs to best match current event. http://t.co/MzE7vJnvN0

12/01/2015 11:52

 

  WSI_Energy

Based off the current ENSO + VPM (MJO) index, there are no years that match the current MJO event's magnitude. http://t.co/iVadAhszRh

11/01/2015 16:10

 

So very uncertain as to how the pattern will develop...

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MS- that UKMO T144 has nothing to do with Ians post from yesterday. He was speaking about the last week of jan, not the beginning of next week.

The trough still looks like heading se into Europe. The Azores ridge and its behaviour prior to and whilst that occurs is the conundrum. Heights to the sw, s, ne, n ????? I called it a messy period earlier today and it sure looks like being so.

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was gona say the exact same thing mate!! Ukmo just few hours behind the both the gfss!!and just to make it clear there is no southwesterly on the ukmo!!

The UKMO is actually too fast because its flatter with the upstream flow, you can see the differences between T96 and T120hrs between it and the GFS's as the shortwave moves east over Canada and the northern plains.

 

The GFS's are slower and more amplified, the UKMO is really not great at T144hrs with it likely to phase the upstream troughing with the low over Denmark.

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Interesting 12z today on both gfs-gfs p.The ridging towards the nne is not without interest for sure but the pv is like a dog with a bone regarding not  pushing any low up the west side of greenland!!!!!.Be interesting how ecm pans out tho and we may tweak a short but more interesting cold snap-spell????uto

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GEM still insisting on the UK track for the Atlantic low at D6, on its own now: post-14819-0-00095700-1421081854_thumb.p

 

Anything after is therefore not much help.

 

The GFS op and P (early days) but showing the likely more settled outlook that has been trending and that IF has suggested is a favoured late Jan synoptic:

 

post-14819-0-15502600-1421081970_thumb.p post-14819-0-46333200-1421081970_thumb.p

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'Atlantic dead in the water'?

Not sure about that over the next 10 days or so.

Edited by bluearmy

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Never seen this criticism before regarding the UKMO output, I always thought this was a more GFS bias:

 

NCEP diagnostic discussion update:

 

SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WED & THU
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GFS/NAM/CANADIAN COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 00Z ECMWF IS A SLOW OUTLIER, EVEN WHEN COMPARED TO ITS
ENSEMBLE MEAN, WITH THIS SYSTEM.  AS THE PARENT SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING MOVING THROUGH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW, A FASTER SOLUTION MAKES
MORE SENSE ANYWAY.  HOWEVER, THE 00Z UKMET IS ON THE FAST SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE, WHICH IS ITS USUAL BIAS
.  A COMPROMISE THE 12Z
GFS/12Z NAM/00Z CANADIAN IS ADVISED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

Edited by nick sussex

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Some peachy looking charts from the gfs tonight. But a word of caution. The uk met update doesn't sound anything like what the gfs has just churned out. Until we see them come onboard take with a huge pinch of salt. As Ian said yesterday as we move into February the form horse is for westerly South westerly winds to dominate. And seen as though they have so far called winter spot on I would be very cautious indeed of gfs eye candy.

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Yep a much colder outlook from the GFS runs with some Arctic air coming south at day 6  with -10C uppers into N.Scotland.

The pattern upstream slower allowing the ridging towards Scandinavia.Later frames show this establishes enough to force low pressure se into Europe.

This would be our best chance so far for a more widespread snow event but of course that is speculation at this range.

The UK model is not really backing this as yet and we need that and the ECM model's support before any real confidence in this positive move by the GFS.

Still good to see that we could squeeze something colder out of what is overall an Atlantic dominated flow. 

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There should be some interesting ENS tonight.

 

Yep, I want to see some broad support. Too many previous scars :D

 

The 06Z ensemble suite was better than the underwhelming output this morning, so hopefully the latest set will be strongly on board.

 

Just from seeing what is posted in here so far this afternoon it looks positive though. As soon as the flow gets east of north then marginality drops out of the picture. -8c 850s in a NE are a very different animal to -8C 850s in a PM flow.  

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