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Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...


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Righty-Ho. This can't pass without comment. Below follow just a random snapshot of detailed medium range briefings from Ops Centre made in first days of Jan, looking towards what was then the 10-15d

Je suis charlie

A bit of clarity re EC Monthly prognosis and expectations further ahead. The broad scheme of things sees a shift in balance re lows to NW becoming more aligned further away to the north from the UK, u

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How good is GME?

 

Like last nights JMA it doesn't develop the storm and keeps more as an embedded trough which would be good all around as it would limit the warm sector and keep relatively cold air in place for many with snow a risk on the Northern flank instead of all rain and damaging winds.

 

gme-0-72.png?11-12

 

Do the MetO see this as a plausible outcome as good agreement between main models for rapid cyclogenesis? 

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I am now really gettinng worried about that storm! ! The parallel looks mental! ! The midlands and northern england would get blown away and also before that some snow to look forward to!!

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I guess in the winter of straw-clutching. Seems next weekend is the one to watch. Hopefully that low will drop as it did Boxing Day

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That storm next week hangs around and warms out the uppers.

 

T84: post-14819-0-19955600-1420992865_thumb.p  Still there at T150: post-14819-0-61255400-1420992864_thumb.p

 

A wild day on the 15th if the GFS verified. Definetly worth staying at home if you can:

 

1am post-14819-0-90023000-1420993054_thumb.g 1pm post-14819-0-39994500-1420993054_thumb.g

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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UKMO makes little of the Atlantic Ridge, maybe due to the short wave spoiler and the phasing of lower heights to the north:

 

post-14819-0-39216800-1420993357_thumb.g  GFS t T120: post-14819-0-01808200-1420993448_thumb.p

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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How good is GME?

 

 

Interesting that both the GME and now UKMO make much more of that LP just N/NW of the Azores,which is a rather odd looking feature.

 

gme..post-2839-0-07298600-1420993263_thumb.pn  ukmo..post-2839-0-21015000-1420993265_thumb.gi

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That developing wave depression appeared in quite a few EC 00Z stamps and now in UKMO-GM. It'll be interesting to see what 12z EC does with it. Some of the midnight ensembles deepened it quite vigorously into southern UK/Channel.

UKGM has it slack in s england. If it deepens more then presumably it tacks a bit further North.

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Interesting that both the GME and now UKMO make much more of that LP just N/NW of the Azores,which is a rather odd looking feature.

 

gme..attachicon.gifgme-0-132.png  ukmo..attachicon.gifUW120-21.gif

 

 

Yes the GFS hi-res ran with this feature a couple of days ago and then dumped it. Though a small cluster of the GEFS still have variations on that.

 

GFS at D11 continuing its theme of pushing the Azores east as further HP moves in from the west:  post-14819-0-97595900-1420994027_thumb.p

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I am now really gettinng worried about that storm! ! The parallel looks mental! ! The midlands and northern england would get blown away and also before that some snow to look forward to!!

Glad tha wales will.not be affected then. Although it looks to be the whole central UK are going to be hit which probably does include wales..

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We need to hope the UKMO is right then, cant see that feature at all on GFS?

 

What I can see on GFS is the horrible trend in FI to strengthen high pressure to our south again accross Europe! Its been the story of this winter, and its killed it more than the PV to our north if you ask me.

 

EDIT: Actually it doesnt last all that long, and then low pressure drops down. Thats better :)

Edited by Winter Cold
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That developing wave depression appeared in quite a few EC 00Z stamps and now in UKMO-GM. It'll be interesting to see what 12z EC does with it. Some of the midnight ensembles deepened it quite vigorously into southern UK/Channel.

I must say the Met on both sides of the Irish Sea have a difficult job in forecasting the upcoming week and what a great insight you bring to this forum it would be lost without your fantastic input Ian?

I would say following latest gfs and ukmo there is cause for concern?

Edited by snowice
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I would say following latest gfs and ukmo there is cause for concern?

Well, of course versus last week's shenanigans, we now polarise the strong wind issues to southern UK and so yes, it looks disruptive but (timing error aside) the consensus brings strongest gradients into overnight period for most, which would help mitigate impacts somewhat.

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That developing wave depression appeared in quite a few EC 00Z stamps and now in UKMO-GM. It'll be interesting to see what 12z EC does with it. Some of the midnight ensembles deepened it quite vigorously into southern UK/Channel.

 

The GEM has it as well,so be interesting to see what it does with it.

 

gem 114 hrs..post-2839-0-57887500-1420994931_thumb.pn

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Gfs 12z op shows lots of wintry weather in the next few weeks, Tuesday looks wintry with a cold westerly blowing hail, sleet and snow showers across the UK, sometimes merging with a risk of accumulations in places, midweek looks stormy and then the Northerly at the end of the week has upgraded, it looks cleaner and a little longer lasting with snow showers for the east next weekend along with sharp frosts. Thereafter, barely time to draw breath before the next batch of wintry weather spreads from the NW.

post-4783-0-96239800-1420995128_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-11987800-1420995143_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-69627300-1420995156_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-98006200-1420995175_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-72252200-1420995198_thumb.pn

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Ahead of the storm later in the week Tuesday and Wednesday could see some snow

 

Some widespread snow for Scotland and Ireland Tuesday morning

 

prectypeuktopo.pngprectypeuktopo.png

 

Into the afternoon the south begins to see some snow before it becomes more widespread around teatime some of the snow could be quite heavy at times leading to some accumulations especially over high ground

 

prectypeuktopo.pngprectypeuktopo.png

 

Into Wednesday and the risk of snow remains with the likes of Dartmoor seeing some snow

 

prectypeuktopo.png

Edited by Summer Sun
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Ahead of the storm later in the week Tuesday and Wednesday could see some snow

 

Some widespread snow for Scotland and Ireland Tuesday morning

 

prectypeuktopo.pngprectypeuktopo.png

 

Into the afternoon the south begins to see some snow before it becomes more widespread around teatime some of the snow could be quite heavy at times leading to some accumulations especially over high ground

 

prectypeuktopo.pngprectypeuktopo.png

 

Into Wednesday and the risk of snow remains with the likes of Dartmoor seeing some snow

 

prectypeuktopo.png

Areal signal looks very overdone. Which model is that from? GFS?

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Good to see some growing broad agreement now by late Jan between EC products, UKMO-GLOSEA and now NCEP modelling for prospects of a more settled, anticyclonic flavour to finish the month and possibly on into early Feb. Flow direction hard to call eventually (perhaps transition into fog/freezing fog/frost territory before a shift to anticyclonic W/SW'ly as per EC Monthly?). Either way, growing consensus on losing the deep cyclonicity... eventually!

So after frosty period, spring like conditions??

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Good to see some growing broad agreement now by late Jan between EC products, UKMO-GLOSEA and now NCEP modelling for prospects of a more settled, anticyclonic flavour to finish the month and possibly on into early Feb. Flow direction hard to call eventually (perhaps transition into fog/freezing fog/frost territory before a shift to anticyclonic W/SW'ly as per EC Monthly?). Either way, growing consensus on losing the deep cyclonicity... eventually!

 

Pleasant by day,cold at night almost Springlike anticyclonic February your favoured option fergie?

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