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Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...


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Much better GFS 18Z FI run with a more amplified run in FI than GFS 12Z which was flatter with the azores high getting too close to us unlike on 18Z, temps also colder than average next weekend with night frosts. :) 

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Righty-Ho. This can't pass without comment. Below follow just a random snapshot of detailed medium range briefings from Ops Centre made in first days of Jan, looking towards what was then the 10-15d

Je suis charlie

A bit of clarity re EC Monthly prognosis and expectations further ahead. The broad scheme of things sees a shift in balance re lows to NW becoming more aligned further away to the north from the UK, u

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Pub runs are downgrading any northerly next weekend. In truth it was always an insipid affair anyway. This slightly flatter outcome was in line with many of the 12z ensembles so not really a surprise.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0&runpara=1

 

The following 18Hz charts don't either look that flat or insipid to me. [admittedly they are the GFS (not parallel) run. ]

 

post-213-0-88052800-1420929594_thumb.jpg

 

post-213-0-16548700-1420929608_thumb.jpg

 

I seem to recall the "Northerly" after Christmas "supposedly being downgraded" and that brought some snowfall here, with warmer uppers and less conducive conditions overall.

 

It may well be that this "Northerly" doesn't come off, but it may still do so.

Edited by J10
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Just to add to Paul's comments deep lows are often mentioned in here, as they have been today,

The Storm thread is there for more expansive discussion as inevitably focus on a troublesome looking storm can be lost in here with many posters focusing on cold/snowy possibilities.

It is just the way it is in Winter in this thread.

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It is these type of little features that you have to keep an eye on in this type of airmass, they could give a surprise snowfall as I mentioned yesterday.

Indeed all it would take is a localised area of heavy rain and lighter winds to encourage evaporative cooling which would give a surprise fall and perhaps even short lived accumulation, the uppers are sub 0c largely this week so pretty sure this will happen somewhere even down close to sea level.

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However (not a criticism of your post above)... This thread is titled "Model Output Discussion: Stormy Weather Inbound". Ergo, you'd think here was the *primary* forum to discuss model output for stormy weather, rather than being bounced to a separate thread. It has to be said that I read innumerable posts here expressing solely whether output is 'good' or 'bad' for snow... yet these don't get directed to a specific thread just for modelled snow-hopecasting. Major cyclogenesis is the single most eye-catching element within next few day's output and you'd rationally think would thus dominate model discussion...not get re-directed to a different thread.

Agreed, but interesting how when a nailed on snow event is within 48 hours, people stop posting about the snow and start posting about when the breakdown will be!!! (yes I can just about remember that happening) So I think what happens in here is people debate things not yet certain to happen, and when they reach a decent level of probability they switch to a dedicated thread.

On models, GFS dives the low from Greenland right through us into Europe between T200 and T300, keeping the UK cool/cold throughout, eventually a dry easterly sets up with ice day potential. A very wintery run. Fits in with some of the week 2 comments about cold weather and prolongs it into a third week.

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Interesting little kink being shown on this run, would result in heavy snowfall & gales initially for parts of the Midlands & Northern England as it clears the UK and tracks across the North Sea, colder air surges behind resulting in some back-edge snowfall for the East. I recall Ian mentioning transient wintriness further S, on Tuesday this little features could provide to be quite exciting, I wonder if this is continued in the morning run.

post-19153-0-88661500-1420929508_thumb.jpost-19153-0-85897300-1420929758_thumb.jpost-19153-0-45342900-1420929972_thumb.j

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However (not a criticism of your post above)... This thread is titled "Model Output Discussion: Stormy Weather Inbound". Ergo, you'd think here was the *primary* forum to discuss model output for stormy weather, rather than being bounced to a separate thread. It has to be said that I read innumerable posts here expressing solely whether output is 'good' or 'bad' for snow... yet these don't get directed to a specific thread just for modelled snow-hopecasting. Major cyclogenesis is the single most eye-catching element within next few day's output and you'd rationally think would thus dominate model discussion...not get re-directed to a different thread.

That would be a good idea a snow- hoping thread Ian - it would make navigation through here far, far easier on the eye :)

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The following 18Hz charts don't either that flat or insipid to me.

 

attachicon.gifCapture next weekend.JPG

 

attachicon.gifCapture next weekend 2.JPG

 

I seem to recall the "Northerly" after Christmas "supposedly being downgraded" and that brought some snowfall here, with warmer uppers and less conducive conditions overall.

 

It may well be that this "Northerly" doesn't come off, but it may still do so.

 

Yep, all fair enough.

 

I suspect come this time next week, those uppers will be modified though. The models nearly always overplay 850s in PM flows.

 

I'm sure some places will see some snow, but most won't. I always think that when people in here are disagreeing over whether a potential cold spell will be cold, that things are not looking particularly good . Only my opinion of course and will be happy (very happy in fact) to be proved wrong.

 

Both the pub runs are just straightforward zonal IMHO. As you say though, it could change again.

 

 

Edit: usual tease of something better on the last couple of frames with PV moving away from its current locale... This keeps coming up but its not getting any nearer!

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0&runpara=1&carte=1

Edited by Jason M
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I have been following this potential big storm forecast for thursday for the last few days and what i am seeing is that the outcome of this storm will have a massive impact on how much cold and snow we see. A few days ago the storm was being modelled as a major event with some models going down to 930mb and creating a very wide storm that tracked slightly further south than is being forecast now. This in turn meant that as it passed over us it done multiple things. First of all it helped push the azores high further south, the further south the storm tracked. Secondly the bigger the intensity forecast for the storm the more cold air was pulled down at a greater speed, helping to further disrupt the jet and push against the azores high.

In summary i believe the track and size of the storm may be a huge turning point in our winter, with the american cold weather due to relent finally this comes at a pivotal time. The more powerful and further south the storm the more chance of cold weather digging south over us and gaining a grip.

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Yep, all fair enough.

 

I suspect come this time next week, those uppers will be modified though. The models nearly always overplay 850s in PM flows.

 

I'm sure some places will see some snow, but most won't. I always think that when people in here are disagreeing over whether a potential cold spell will be cold, that things are not looking particularly good . Only my opinion of course and will be happy (very happy in fact) to be proved wrong.

 

Both the pub runs are just straightforward zonal IMHO. As you say though, it could change again.

 

 

They may well do, but I still think the current charts (especially GFS) have potential, THE GFS (P) 06Hz run earlier today, had a lot of potential indeed a bit more than the ones above.

 

post-213-0-13883600-1420895996_thumb.jpg post-213-0-91960900-1420895972_thumb.jpg
 
As for models overdoing cold Northerlies, possibly by about 1c and then not always, and there is one other (IMBY factor), Northerlies and more particularly NNW winds, are the main source of snow for here due to the snow streamers effect. (particularly during the 00 decade), for other areas they clearly do not have the same resonance.
 
The models will keep on changing but for the better or the worse.
Edited by J10
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Yep, all fair enough.

 

I suspect come this time next week, those uppers will be modified though. The models nearly always overplay 850s in PM flows.

 

I'm sure some places will see some snow, but most won't. I always think that when people in here are disagreeing over whether a potential cold spell will be cold, that things are not looking particularly good . Only my opinion of course and will be happy (very happy in fact) to be proved wrong.

 

Both the pub runs are just straightforward zonal IMHO. As you say though, it could change again.

 

Again, very misleading.

 

The GFS op was 'COLD' zonal up to a certain point, then later on in FI it wasn't zonal at all.

 

gfs-0-384.png?18

 

gfs-1-348.png?18

 

Anyway, deep FI so unlikely to verify (but you never quite know for sure)

 

Also, quite a nice end to the GFS (p)

 

gfsnh-0-384.png?18

Edited by SE Blizzards
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I read this thread to see what the models show whether it be storms, snow, heatwave or zonal dross. Don't change a thing though, I love the passion you all have - it's what makes this forum so addictive !

Thats my problem too addicted and a hell of a lot of chaff to wade through  :cc_confused:

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Just to reiterate to Paul et al that I wasn't criticising Mods etc, who work tirelessly trying to keep the thread tidy. I just feel that there's innumerable posts with phraseology such as "awful for snow", "bad/great for coldies", "awful winter prospects", "terrible run", etc etc, that self-evidently should be in moan/ramp thread (irrespective of mods having to then move them post-hoc). When a 'hunt for cold/snow' becomes myopic, it arguably warrants a dedicated model thread, allowing this one to flourish unencumbered by analysis so routinely polarised towards a cold winter wish-list, and subsequent expressions of dismay when it isn't manifested.

 

That's certainly something we can look at if there's enough support for it. We did have a separate 'hunt for cold' model thread a couple of winter's ago and because there's always such large numbers of people on the hunt for snow/cold during winter, that thread became the go-to thread and the separate model thread was a bit of a ghost town, but that's not to say it can't work...

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That's certainly something we can look at if there's enough support for it. We did have a separate 'hunt for cold' model thread a couple of winter's ago and because there's always such large numbers of people on the hunt for snow/cold during winter, that thread became the go-to thread and the separate model thread was a bit of a ghost town, but that's not to say it can't work...

I remember it well. I'd argue that's the solution, albeit appreciate meaning more work for you good folk! Cheers.

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Just to reiterate to Paul et al that I wasn't criticising Mods etc, who work tirelessly trying to keep the thread tidy. I just feel that there's innumerable posts with phraseology such as "awful for snow", "bad/great for coldies", "awful winter prospects", "terrible run", etc etc, that self-evidently should be in moan/ramp thread (irrespective of mods having to then move them post-hoc). When a 'hunt for cold/snow' becomes myopic, it arguably warrants a dedicated model thread, allowing this one to flourish unencumbered by analysis so routinely polarised towards a cold winter wish-list, and subsequent expressions of dismay when it isn't manifested.

Maybe you should post in the 'in depth' model thread Ian. Leave this one as it is.

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Just to reiterate to Paul et al that I wasn't criticising Mods etc, who work tirelessly trying to keep the thread tidy. I just feel that there's innumerable posts with phraseology such as "awful for snow", "bad/great for coldies", "awful winter prospects", "terrible run", etc etc, that self-evidently should be in moan/ramp thread (irrespective of mods having to then move them post-hoc). When a 'hunt for cold/snow' becomes myopic, it arguably warrants a dedicated model thread, allowing this one to flourish unencumbered by analysis so routinely polarised towards a cold winter wish-list, and subsequent expressions of dismay when it isn't manifested.

Fair points Ian, but as most of us in here are coldies, and a lot of people hunt for snow in the majority of their posts, this thread would likely become very quiet - as a lot of the posts that make up a days posting in here are cold hunting, so would turn into a pointless exercise where this thread would turn into a 'hunt for anything but cold weather' thread!

It's just how this forum goes I guess.

Edit: Sorry mods/Paul

Edited by dec10snow
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Again, very misleading.

 

The GFS op was 'COLD' zonal up to a certain point, then later on in FI it wasn't zonal at all.

 

gfs-0-384.png?18

 

gfs-1-348.png?18

 

Anyway, deep FI so unlikely to verify (but you never quite know for sure)

 

Also, quite a nice end to the GFS (p)

 

gfsnh-0-384.png?18

 

 

I call your chart with this little offering from the same run

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=204&mode=1

 

I'll raise you this one as for good measure....

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=216&mode=0

 

Did I cherry pick these charts? You bet I did! Are those charts representative of the whole run? nope, but nor were yours. I accept that you don't agree with me, but I don't accept I was misleading. Otherwise I could make the same call re your posted charts. Point being its all too easy to select a chart at a given timescale to back up any point being made. There can be a real tendency in here to jump on anyone who is commenting against the consensus and I'm sure it deters people from posting.

 

The overall pattern going forward is fairly run of the mill zonal in my opinion, nothing more and nothing less. The trend today has been towards a flatter outcome and I'm just commenting on what I see. I accept that you were not trying to be misleading and therefore you will hopefully see that I wasn't either.

 

Believe me, if I see something encouraging i'll be in the vanguard of people saying it (as my posting history will show). I've been pretty negative about the last couple of weeks and first half of Jan simply because its what I see in the output. The CET thread is rather interesting right now in terms of where we are this month. Its a hard fact that right now we could easily end up with a warmer winter than last year! I've no idea if that will happen and we could yet see big changes in the medium term output. I am yet to see this though!

 

After that, lets see what the GEFS bring us :)

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Still the odd extreme solution amongst the 18z ensembles for the mid-week storm,but the ensemble mean likely a better guide at this range for general  track.

 

post-2839-0-73679700-1420932258_thumb.pn

 

 

ens.mean..post-2839-0-86387300-1420932260_thumb.pn

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However (not a criticism of your post above)... This thread is titled "Model Output Discussion: Stormy Weather Inbound". Ergo, you'd think here was the *primary* forum to discuss model output for stormy weather, rather than being bounced to a separate thread. It has to be said that I read innumerable posts here expressing solely whether output is 'good' or 'bad' for snow... yet these don't get directed to a specific thread just for modelled snow-hopecasting. Major cyclogenesis is the single most eye-catching element within next few day's output and you'd rationally think would thus dominate model discussion...not get re-directed to a different thread.

 

For what it's worth I completely agree. And en passant, so to speak, the latest GFS for the storm.

Chart courtesy weatherbell

post-12275-0-21032300-1420932903_thumb.p

Edited by knocker
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I call your chart with this little offering from the same run

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=204&mode=1

 

I'll raise you this one as for good measure....

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=216&mode=0

 

Did I cherry pick these charts? You bet I did! Are those charts representative of the whole run? nope, but nor were yours. I accept that you don't agree with me, but I don't accept I was misleading. Otherwise I could make the same call re your posted charts. Point being its all too easy to select a chart at a given timescale to back up any point being made. There can be a real tendency in here to jump on anyone who is commenting against the consensus and I'm sure it deters people from posting.

 

The overall pattern going forward is fairly run of the mill zonal in my opinion, nothing more and nothing less. The trend today has been towards a flatter outcome and I'm just commenting on what I see. I accept that you were not trying to be misleading and therefore you will hopefully see that I wasn't either.

 

Believe me, if I see something encouraging i'll be in the vanguard of people saying it (as my posting history will show). I've been pretty negative about the last couple of weeks and first half of Jan simply because its what I see in the output. The CET thread is rather interesting right now in terms of where we are this month. Its a hard fact that right now we could easily end up with a warmer winter than last year! I've no idea if that will happen and we could yet see big changes in the medium term output. I am yet to see this though!

 

After that, lets see what the GEFS bring us :)

 

No worries. Neither of us are right or wrong. Just different opinions that's all.

 

We'll just have to agree to disagree on this one and move on  :)

Edited by SE Blizzards
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