Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...

[Banbury]

People who are after the white stuff should be more focused on the weekend, especially those further south. Air from a more Nirtherly direction rather that NW.

Don't rule out early in the week

It is certainly piling up on the Scottish hills and will continue to do so.

 

By the way, I thought MBY posts are best for the regional threads.

" Down to low levels" as per J Hammond, always best to listen to the beeb forecasts IMO

[blizzard81]

I think this could be a classic case of gfs picking up a trend for height rises to our north west in the longer term, then the op runs seemingly back tracking but ensembles sticking with the trend and then the op runs going back to the original trend. I think we will be seeing much better output over the next couple of days and I think the extended ecm ensembles will be much colder when they update tonight.

[Weather-history]

As I don't live in the UK now my posts should be IMBY free! Rather than look through snow tinted glasses and as much as some people might see some snow the last time I looked the UK was not just a hill in the Dales.

 

Lets spare a thought here for many people who haven't seen a flake of snow for nearly two years. These PM flows just don't cut it especially with the fast moving nature of the pattern. So even tonights possible snow will be gone by tomorrow, we shouldn't just lower expectations to such an extent that a few hours of wet snow masks another generally pathetic attempt at proper wintry weather.

 

Yes its nice to see snow at anytime even if it doesn't last long but really is this the best a UK winter can deliver?

 

And probably over half the people in this forum are yet to see a snowflake so until I see synoptics that can deliver to the majority I will continue to call this winter as I see it, which is basically better than last winter which of course wouldn't be difficult but still underwhelming.

 

To use that now infamous analogy from the USA, you can put lipstick on a pig but its still a pig!

 

There endeth my moan for tonight, lets hope we can at least get a northerly for next weekend and a toppling ridge towards Scandi. And the next low dropping se to the west of the UK.

Nick, the fact is no matter how superb the set up is, someone misses out. Ask anyone from the northwest Midlands about winter 2009-10 . Did anyone think about these people?

[phil nw.]

Yes i have to agree with Nick S and a few others,colder yes but in such a mobile pattern no chance for deep cold to establish.

Favoured areas in this pattern will do well for lying snow that may last for longer than a few hours such as the Scottish highlands.Other elevations further south may also see some brief coverings before the next mild sector moves in.

 

I have seen this pattern so many times over the years and it rarely delivers widespread lying snow away from those higher areas to the north and north west.

We have to see much more buckling and slowing of the jet than we currently see modelled over the next week to 10 days to get air from the high Arctic rather than Canada via N.Atlantic to tip the scales towards deeper cold.

I thought a few days ago that the mid-Atlantic ridging may develop along those lines with maybe a high toppling towards Scandinavia but the pattern now looks too flat with the NH jet continuing to push across the Atlantic towards the UK locale.

A couple of charts to show what i mean -ECM Op T96hrs and GFS mean at T240hrs.

 

 

so yes no denying we are easing into a colder spell but i feel the wind and deep lows rather than disruptive snowfall will be the main points of interest for the time being.

Edited January 10, 2015 by phil nw.

[nick sussex]

Nick, the fact is no matter how superb the set up is, someone misses out. Ask anyone from the northwest Midlands about winter 2009-10 . Did anyone think about these people?

I did because I'm nice! lol I take your point and of course its difficult to get a set up that delivers for everyone however you hope that overall you'll get several different set ups that can share the snow around.

 

And you can get set ups that deliver to more people UK wide, maybe we should order an active cold front with steep temp gradient ahead of a deep cold Arctic flow.

[KyleHenry]

Further evidence at 240 on tonights ECM that the PV is starting to drain away from Greenland and shift itself to a more favourable position later this month..

 

 

And i'm not sure if anyone has posted this today, but today's updated AO forecast see's most members falling off a cliff as we head into the last third of January.

ECMWF @240 hours, Is the first clear opportunity for a long time to see possible height rises up into Greenland . If and a tentative if the ECM has the correct pattern, high pressure will allow radiation cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean reducing SST and putting a halt to the mass spawning of polar lows.

The difference is that if true with model, there is no spoiling factor to disrupt this outcome.

We all watch and see then.

[swfc]

ECMWF @240 hours, Is the first clear opportunity for a long time to see possible height rises up into Greenland . If and a tentative if the ECM has the correct pattern, high pressure will allow radiation cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean reducing SST and putting a halt to the mass spawning of polar lows.

The difference is that if true with model, there is no spoiling factor to disrupt this outcome.

We all watch and see then.

Tbh i think that any cooling of the sst woudnt feed back in a short time frame ie an area of high pressure.Remember the coldest sst around the uk are in early spring due to the lagging effect

[Winter Cold]

Well the ECM is a little downgraded from the 0z charts I posted this morning, but still not awful. Still some cold charts in the mix and there may be more cold next weekend. Just seen the latest 10 day on BBC website and they say signal firming up for jet to dive south and us in cold northerly so METO on side for that is good!

 

This week could see snow pop up anywhere really, some cold uppers in the mix still so quite a difficult forecast week really id say. Obvious focus to see what happens on Wednesday too.

 

Its definately nice seeing the PV breaking up on the runs, the final ECM chart tonight sees it almost gone from Greenland. Gota have hope

 

Edited January 10, 2015 by Winter Cold

[Hotspur62]

The trends are still slowly going in right direction. AH still creeping Westwards slowly, PV moving over to Siberia, Lower heights in Eastern Med, AO moving Negative it would seem by end of month,jet moving ever more southwards. The odds on a colder spell are now shorter for a cold UK spell as I see it and still think Scandi High will be more likely than Icelandic/Greenland High. Agree with SE Blizzards comments earlier and think start of Feb should see the goods being delivered!!

[Man With Beard]

It's been encouraging to hear the likes of IF and JH talking up the possibility of a colder spell coming up sometime soon, because some output tonight is rather inconclusive and appears open to the PV reinvigorating later on around Greenland - sure the ECM may show something slightly different at T240 but I was rather hoping the lower heights would move quickly towards Europe, whereas now I feel they may get stuck to the north and a renewed burst of the Azores High could creep in to our south. But IF/JH haven't been far off the mark all winter so let's hope this evening's output is just variability in the individual models.

Wednesday's storm has been modeled consistently now in terms of its formation, so now we are waiting on intensity and track, and that won't start firming up till T72.

Snow chances - a disappointing reminder today to hold GFS snow charts with light hands - they have increased the uppers by 1C inside T24, and consequently they no longer show the low level snow for NW England / W Wales that they did consistently until yesterday. Lesson relearned - add a degree to their modelling in PM instances. And therefore, I seriously doubt most of their English/Welsh lowland snow predictions until at least next weekend. It's just so tempting to be taken in when it's the only snow modelling we have up until T48!

Scotland/NI, on the other hand, could be in for a classic wintery second half of January if current modelling keeps up.

Edited January 10, 2015 by rjbw

[Frosty.]

I'm pleased with tonight's ECM 12z run, it's on the cold side for most of the time and various parts of the UK will have a good chance of temporary accumulations of snow, some more than others but midweek looks potentially stormy with explosive cyclogenesis hitting areas further south compared to the current storm track which is just to the north of Scotland so it looks like the jet will be digging south with reload after reload of polar air as further troughs swing SE bringing further wintry conditions at times.

[Captain Shortwave]

Further evidence at 240 on tonights ECM that the PV is starting to drain away from Greenland and shift itself to a more favourable position later this month..

 

 

And i'm not sure if anyone has posted this today, but today's updated AO forecast see's most members falling off a cliff as we head into the last third of January.

Of course the biggest thing is we need to get this to day 0, trouble is we keep seeing the low heights ease over Greenland, but this never gets within 6 or 7 days as another piece develops or pushes across the pole from Siberia. We should have seen the low heights ease around the time of the potential northerly (17th/18th). But now at that time we see low heights remain over Greenland.

ECM day 10 (from the 8th)

ECM day 8 (today)

The models overstate the removal of low heights to our north west. Until we see a definite trend there then we cannot assume that the Arctic oscillation will drop to neutral or negative levels.

ECM ens keep a generally west or north westerly flow. No real northerly component for next weekend which is in line with the operational.

 

Interesting note there rjbw, the models were predicting 850s of -6/7C for tonight just yesterday, but the high-res models are only showing -4 to -6C now.

Edited January 10, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[A.J]

.As I don't live in the UK now my posts should be IMBY free!

 

.

talk about dedicated to the cause!......If I lived in SW France, I wouldn't give a rats weeble what the model's show for the UK 

[Stormyking]

Right then, some very interesting weather times coming up on the charts, especially with this storm that looks on the card, be interesting to track. Also like the fact alot of the models seem to have snow for quite a few places next week, even near the South Coast! Interesting model watching times ahead!

[damianslaw]

Lots going on, one day different to the next, in a very mobile evolving set up as we have now, don't expect the models to be exactly right with the details, its all about overall trends. The trend they are all showing for next week is very unsettled with much less in the way of marked warm sector air with the Jetstream taking a more southerly path, locking the northern half of the country at least firmly within polar air. Temps for tomorrow and Monday in the north at least are already being downgraded with virtually no warm sector to speak of - this is a definite signal that things are trending colder overall.

 

The track of the deep low set to attack the country on Wednesday into Thursday is certainly not nailed but all models appear to want to send it somewhere over Scotland with heights building to the west behind - allowing for a quieter colder interlude to end the week.

 

Looking further ahead, ECM is interesting in how it shreds the Polar Vortex over Greenland and with the position of the Jetstream any further low pressure development to the NW will easily be aligned on a NW-SE path maintaining the overall colder theme. Lets see if GFS follows this theme.

 

The outlook and synoptics are very typical for January, yes we are far from classic cold snow synoptics, but the direction of travel is very much one on a path to colder weather more generally with every chance of something much more sustained cold wise before the end of the month - this is just how I see things.

[ANYWEATHER]

The trends are still slowly going in right direction. AH still creeping Westwards slowly, PV moving over to Siberia, Lower heights in Eastern Med, AO moving Negative it would seem by end of month,jet moving ever more southwards. The odds on a colder spell are now shorter for a cold UK spell as I see it and still think Scandi High will be more likely than Icelandic/Greenland High. Agree with SE Blizzards comments earlier and think start of Feb should see the goods being delivered!!

To be honest, I think the next ten days will deliver something for just about everyone, not deep cold and long lasting for Winter fans but a trend to colder conditions look likely, Stormy conditions look the likely concern for the uk next week....

[Mucka]

As I don't live in the UK now my posts should be IMBY free! Rather than look through snow tinted glasses and as much as some people might see some snow the last time I looked the UK was not just a hill in the Dales.

 

Lets spare a thought here for many people who haven't seen a flake of snow for nearly two years. These PM flows just don't cut it especially with the fast moving nature of the pattern. So even tonights possible snow will be gone by tomorrow, we shouldn't just lower expectations to such an extent that a few hours of wet snow masks another generally pathetic attempt at proper wintry weather.

 

Yes its nice to see snow at anytime even if it doesn't last long but really is this the best a UK winter can deliver?

 

And probably over half the people in this forum are yet to see a snowflake so until I see synoptics that can deliver to the majority I will continue to call this winter as I see it, which is basically better than last winter which of course wouldn't be difficult but still underwhelming.

 

To use that now infamous analogy from the USA, you can put lipstick on a pig but its still a pig!

 

There endeth my moan for tonight, lets hope we can at least get a northerly for next weekend and a toppling ridge towards Scandi. And the next low dropping se to the west of the UK.

 

 

That's all fine and good Nick and will reflect the feelings of many a Southerner but tilting at windmills won't change the weather on offer.

We can't magic a cold spell our way so making the best of what is on offer is the best option and BTW it really is tiresome that folk keep perpetuating the falsehood that any falling snow will be restricted to higher ground only. Even the MetO have repeatedly forecast snow for lower ground in some areas too.

You may not care about transient snow events, especially as you are not in the Uk, but I don't see how that means others shouldn't be happy if they snow falling at least.

 

We would all like some deep cold and heavy snow lying but beggars can't be choosers and unfortunately the UK is the beggar when it comes to Winter, "Please sir, more snow."

I just don't see the point of shaking a fist at every passing cloud even if agree with your sentiments on recent winters as a whole.

[nick sussex]

talk about dedicated to the cause!......If I lived in SW France, I wouldn't give a rats I have a problem what the model's show for the UK 

I used to be a long suffering UK cold and snow lover! So always like to see charts that can provide some snow. It's strange even though I'm here my snow heart still remains in the UK! Down here we don't get too much snow in the valley but I'm lucky to have the Pyrenees close by.

[Frosty.]

Well, northern scotland has been battered twice so far in the last 2 days with power outages all over the place and yet another storm is likely to hit the same far northerly areas on Monday, so a triple whammy of storms but it's central UK which may face the full force of the midweek storm and then beyond that it looks cold with a risk of snow showers by the end of the working week into next weekend followed by a toppling ridge and then more cold zonality digging SE during the following week..I wouldn't call the next 7-10 days boring, quite the opposite in fact.

Edited January 10, 2015 by Frosty.

[nick sussex]

That's all fine and good Nick and will reflect the feelings of many a Southerner but tilting at windmills won't change the weather on offer.

We can't magic a cold spell our way so making the best of what is on offer is the best option and BTW it really is tiresome that folk keep perpetuating the falsehood that any falling snow will be restricted to higher ground only. Even the MetO have repeatedly forecast snow for lower ground in some areas too.

You may not care about transient snow events, especially as you are not in the Uk, but I don't see how that means others shouldn't be happy if they snow falling at least.

 

We would all like some deep cold and heavy snow lying but beggars can't be choosers and unfortunately the UK is the beggar when it comes to Winter, "Please sir, more snow."

I just don't see the point of shaking a fist at every passing cloud even if agree with your sentiments on recent winters as a whole.

I never said people shouldn't be happy to see snow falling and of course beggars can't be choosers. The point I was making reflects what I think most people in here feel. Even those who might see snow falling would like to see it last a few days and not get washed away the next day and people who have seen zip in terms of snow would like to see some.

 

Maybe people are just tired of the scraps on offer and want to see something better. I'm by no means writing off hopes that a decent cold spell will arrive, it may well do.

[Paul]

Can we haul this back to the models now please

[Mucka]

I never said people shouldn't be happy to see snow falling and of course beggars can't be choosers. The point I was making reflects what I think most people in here feel. Even those who might see snow falling would like to see it last a few days and not get washed away the next day and people who have seen zip in terms of snow would like to see some.

 

Maybe people are just tired of the scraps on offer and want to see something better. I'm by no means writing off hopes that a decent cold spell will arrive, it may well do.

 

When you're starving scraps are tasty!

BTW not had snow here yet, just hail and sleet showers.

I think a lot of people like to see snow falling though even though of course everyone would prefer a nice deep snowfall that sticks around for a while.

 

Anyway let's hope folk do at least get to see some transient snow rather than just rain until something better turns up. 

[SE Blizzards]

The trends are still slowly going in right direction. AH still creeping Westwards slowly, PV moving over to Siberia, Lower heights in Eastern Med, AO moving Negative it would seem by end of month,jet moving ever more southwards. The odds on a colder spell are now shorter for a cold UK spell as I see it and still think Scandi High will be more likely than Icelandic/Greenland High. Agree with SE Blizzards comments earlier and think start of Feb should see the goods being delivered!!

 

Ah, i think i should just make a quick comment here.

 

I haven't made a forecast or told anyone that late January/early February the UK 'will' turn into something of a fairytale Winter Wonderland. 

When i submit my posts i clearly post them with charts, and back them up with comments on what they are showing, and what tonight's ECM 12z chart that i posted earlier showed was the 'potential' for something to perhaps develop later this month.

 

Yes, i admit to being something of a cold ramper at times, (and proud of it), but let's not get too ahead of ourselves.

 

The models are currently showing a cooler/colder trend as things stand, and this impressive Day 7 mean from the ECM shows it nicely.

 

 

Now, what happens after here is up for debate, but i am encouraged by tonight's ECM 12Z 240h chart, and if the signal does grow towards an even colder pattern (to the one we currently have) later on this month, be rest assured i will RAMP things up accordingly.

 

Cheers.

Edited January 10, 2015 by SE Blizzards

[fergieweather]

Good agreement now between 12z EC and UKMO global/4km modelling on snow-prone areas of south next week (Exmoor/Quantocks; Dartmoor; Mendips & environs). Assessment of E4 suggests circa 2-5cm possible over these uplands. Some wet snow/sleet still likely to lower levels in same general area(s) late Tuesday as WBFL drops to ca. 200m. Re Thursday, Exeter have modified GM to ensemble consensus (further north), albeit strongest winds remain as previous signal (W/NW/SW/S England; gusts widely to 50kts; stronger in exposure of course but not akin to recent Scottish storm). Further ahead, 36 of EC members by 25 Jan have W/SW mobility (albeit by differing mechanism and with no discernable signal by then for vigorous cyclogenesis); the remaining minority anticyclonic, centred over or just S of UK. So, for now at least, continued support for the broad theme late Jan yielded in the most recent EC Monthly update.

Edited January 10, 2015 by fergieweather

[Barry12]

Unlike other cold spells the models have shown, the met office are firming up on this one during late next week into the weekend. Expect the models to upgrade in terms of cold and snow over the next couple of runs with the jet diving south. Snow to lower levels in the south looks possible.

Edited January 10, 2015 by Paul
Stop shouting! Have changed from all capitals.