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Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Snow will get to low levels in N England through the next 10 days at times, not sure why people have so much difficulty with this?

The 850s are generally overplayed to be honest ,also the dew points and how heavy the precipitation is will be a factor given the showery forecast.Still a long way to go so who knows!!

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

Some rather silly posts on here today but hey ho.Very disturbed weather on the cards for the next 10 days or so with the usual areas at elevation getting some wintry weather.As usuall fi shows a build in pressure moving north via the atlantic but given the timescale slightly dubious.Theongoing story of "great potential"still being touted but barring the higher parts of northern England and obv Scotland nothing unusual unless we procrastinate over last winter

I would call it a surprise snowfall set-up. It is a pattern that can catch people out with surprise snowfalls that were not anticipated. I can give historical examples, the day before the Burns storm of 1990. Snow fell across parts of North Wales, Northern England and North Midlands, caught the forecasters out.

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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire

Snow will get to low levels in N England through the next 10 days at times, not sure why people have so much difficulty with this?

Maybe so, but it will likely be a case of "snow today, gone tomorrow". I'd rather have something that lasts for a good week or so, but not much on offer in the models on that score.
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

The 850s are generally overplayed to be honest ,also the dew points and how heavy the precipitation is will be a factor given the showery forecast.Still a long way to go so who knows!!

Dew points look okay to me

39-101PUK.GIF?09-12

850s look just about good enough, just a case on how the showers pop up I guess, but I would assume coastal areas will favour best. Streamers are very much a now-casting issue which could give moderate accumulations.

The ECM has a shallower system which moves through quicker on Thursday, so whilst the other models have a deep low over the UK, the ECM has it already approaching Norway

ECM1-144.GIF?09-0

A little more amplification in the Atlantic, but my goodness that trough looks a mess, full of secondary lows which could do just about anything.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m

Nice ECM so far

 

ECH1-96.GIF?09-0

ECH0-96.GIF?09-0

 

This would also most certainly bring snow down to quite low levels on tuesday in scotland, north west england, north england and the west midlands, more so than saturdays chances!

 

And wednesdays chart has slider written all over it, with -6 uppers in place I would expect snow probably for midlands/ parts of northern england, maybe even parts of southern england two..

 

ECH1-120.GIF?09-0

ECH0-120.GIF?09-0

Edited by Harsh Climate
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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London

Maybe so, but it will likely be a case of "snow today, gone tomorrow". I'd rather have something that lasts for a good week or so, but not much on offer in the models on that score.

I would be happy to see a few flakes fluttering by the lamppost let alone have enough of the white stuff to make a snowman or go sledging for an hour- I'm going for a long drive ooop naaarf if you lot get any decent settling snow

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Maybe so, but it will likely be a case of "snow today, gone tomorrow". I'd rather have something that lasts for a good week or so, but not much on offer in the models on that score.

 

 

 

The 850s are generally overplayed to be honest ,also the dew points and how heavy the precipitation is will be a factor given the showery forecast.Still a long way to go so who knows!!

 

Dew points are predicted to be widely sub zero at times with 850's around -7. We are not talking FI here or just one model so I think 850's will be about right for this weekend and next week. Whether snow accumulates temporarily to any low ground or not will be quite hit and miss but I'm 99% sure parts of Northern England wills ee snow falling without the aid of being stuck up a hill.

 

 

Maybe so, but it will likely be a case of "snow today, gone tomorrow". I'd rather have something that lasts for a good week or so, but not much on offer in the models on that score.

 

Oh I agree and have said so many times. I'm not suggesting it is ideal winter fare. Just that stating snow will be restricted to higher ground over the next 10 days is almost certainly an inaccurate statement and not truly reflective of the current model output IMO.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Wow no storm on the ECM 144 -

Infact it looks like the GEM-

 

Was about to post the same thing. If only it finishes the same!

A lot of chopping and changing from midweek onwards re behaviour of trough.

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Wow no storm on the ECM 144 -

Infact it looks like the GEM-

 

Yes bearing in mind nearly every GEFS have the storm around D6-7: post-14819-0-96707000-1420828700_thumb.j

 

But ECM was notorious during the Summer for missing the Tropical Storms till around D4 or less. They are great at getting the synoptics correct when there is a running pattern but can struggle with major features...

 

...of course the ECM could be correct :rofl:

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Much improved ECM this evening with the Azores backing away allowing colder air to filter down from the north

 

ECH1-168.GIF?09-0ECH1-192.GIF?09-0

ECU0-168.GIF?09-0ECU0-192.GIF?09-0

 

Snow would be getting down to lower levels if this comes off

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

Much better ECM if you like cold, slack low heights with fairly cold upper air temperatures could lead to some pretty cold days, also snow potential from small scale disturbances in the flow:

ECM1-144.GIF?09-0

 

There is still a storm of sorts, you can see it lining up at +120, but it seems a much shallower feature than on the GFS (P) and doesn't have as much of a warm sector:

ECM1-120.GIF?09-0

I thought it'd be more of an outlier than it was but looking at it the JMA doesn't look too dissimilar either, nor does the GEM (although still potentially damaging winds for southern England):

J144-21.GIF?09-12 gem-0-144.png?12

 

We saw the less intense modelling of the Boxing Day low win out, so I wouldn't discount the less severe option winning out, especially considering how rare and intense a 930mb low tracking directly over Scotland actually is.

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Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

The cold looks like dominating through the trend period, with mild weather rather transient. Further chances of snow for the North of the UK through the coming 10 days, and even to the south if the ECM verifies.

 

ECU0-24.GIF?09-0ECU0-96.GIF?09-0ECU0-120.GIF?09-0ECU0-192.GIF?09-0ECU0-216.GIF?09-0ECU0-240.GIF?09-0

Edited by Barry95
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Problem is vortex still wants to reform....surpressed Azores high...energy off the Canadian vortex segment...it isn't great at Day 9 but hey ho upwards and onwards......and look at the pesky Barents low

Day 9 is fine from the ECM, the Azores high is pretty much primed to move westwards and allow the next low to sink south eastwards through the UK. As we have low heights over Central/southern Europe blocking the eastward movement of the high.

ECH1-240.GIF?09-0

Cold day 10 chart with potentially colder air moving in later on. It's not a blocking pattern but we are start to see the pattern tilt more NW/SE which brings more areas into play with respect to potential snowfall.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow/Blizzards in Winter, Cool Summers. (I'm allergic to heat)!
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)

Well, i have to say, the ECM 12Z was a bit of a stinker of a run for Coldies..... In America!  :laugh:

 

In all honesty though, a very pleasing ECM tonight, and 'maybe' small signs later on in the run of a pattern setting up similar to the one BA was talking about earlier.

Edited by SE Blizzards
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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

Good too see the continuing pattern of cold weather as we head into Next week, there is complications regarding that developing low mind but in one way, a shallow low may not be a bad thing, it would raise the potential of some frontal snow if the low is more shallower, all will depend just how stubborn and cold the air gets next week. 

 

Looks interesting for more Northern and Western areas of the UK but as ever, its radar watching in these situations. 

 

Longer term, there is hints we may see some sort of light at the end of the tunnel with the jet weakening and starting to buckle a bit more but way too far out to pin point what may happen in the longer term just yet. 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Models continue to stick with the trend they showed yesterday i.e.a more amplified flow developing with less in the way of marked warm sectors thanks to a shift in the jet on a more southerly path, buckling to allow azores high to ridge NW and a deep longwave trough to form to our NE over Scandinavia. ECM showing a classic ridge over mid atlantic, trough to our NE pattern as we enter second half of the month - whilst certainly not a classic cold winter synoptic set up, it is a cold one, with the UK locked on the colder side of the jet, with an airstream from west to north, ideal scenario for slider lows thanks to a NW-SE trajectory.

 

So a transition to a colder zonal set up next week, with strong potential for something more substantially colder through latter part of the month, especially if we see the trough sink sufficiently southwards to allow stronger heights to build to the NE - its certainly very plausible.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Hi Ido

The american pro mets totally berate the GFS accuracy v the ECM on TStorms -

So I would be inclined to go with the ECM @ 144

A good run tonight which sees the sinking trough at 240 -

S

 

Yes interesting that the UKMO supports the GFS, usually sides with the ECMpost-14819-0-04560400-1420830694_thumb.g  

 

The JMA also goes with a storm: post-14819-0-65343200-1420830693_thumb.g

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

Of coarse good charts and there's better to come.

Very exciting now expect to see the eye candy to quickly start coming even closer to a realistic time frame!.

the split of the vortex is not quite split far enough apart but we have a colder outlook and a possible even colder further through the month.

Who says you can't get cold in a positive ao and nao situation without high latitude block,

to be honest the Azores and vortex could or have worked in tandem to help the cold due at the weekend and next week.

So I expect further movement possible Greenland block at some point this month.

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND

Hi Ido

The american pro mets totally berate the GFS accuracy v the ECM on TStorms -

So I would be inclined to go with the ECM @ 144

A good run tonight which sees the sinking trough at 240 -

S

That fact that ecm got the intensity right of the boxing day storm. I agree it will be right this time around,and the gfs has a habit of over Deeping the LP.I think ecm is looking great for all look at the uppers! Edited by snowice
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Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

Yes interesting that the UKMO supports the GFS, usually sides with the ECMattachicon.gifUW144-21-3.GIF

 

The JMA also goes with a storm: attachicon.gifJ120-21.GIF

 

The stats prove the ECM is the best model at day 6, and the GFS always blows up storms, so I'd go with the ECM tonight.

 

Expect the UKMO to back track tomorrow.

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