Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...

[Frosty.]

The light at the end of the tunnel is growing larger and brighter, the 6z gradually increases the snow risk for more and more of the UK, as early as tomorrow, there is a risk of snow showers as far south as Wales and nw England, then the snow risk extends down into the Midlands at times next week, further on, even the SE gets in on the action, it could happen sooner, this is just based on an individual operational run but what I am seeing from the latest models is increasing cold and snow potential during the next few weeks with lows sliding SE across the UK with pm / arctic shots becoming more frequent.

Edited January 9, 2015 by Frosty.

[bluearmy]

Yes, but I am fed up with the "big picture" this winter

 

Looking for some IMBY changes

 

So I am rather hesitant to anything  before Feb 

 

  Though as you say it could be worse 

 

appreciate your frustration but the IMBY changes begin OMBY !

[mushymanrob]

The snow percentage graphs says 20% on one day is the best chance but mainly 5-15%. So in reality then maybe the Downs and other hilly areas may get something but overall nothing has changed; it is mainly Midlands North increasing with ASL for any frontal or LP snow though even the north are borderline for this. Plenty of PM snow showers for the NW (including Ireland) though.

 

 

I think Steve is on the money here.  Good model support for his views currently.  Of course things can change fairly quickly but for now a finessing of the pattern rather than the pattern change that we coldies really need.

 

i didnt say that steve was wrong, just that its premature to write off snow in southern areas over the coming weeks because the synoptic patterns are very mobile and it wouldnt take a huge shift (based on current outputs) for snow chances to increase for southern areas.  yes on current models its unlikely down south, but a shift of a hundred miles (very small) could see the souths chances increase dramatically.

.....on the other hand, all this fi hopecasting might yet amount to nothing, just after crimbo we were supposed to get mainly pm air in a northwesterly, its 13c here atm .

[mushymanrob]

Who'd have thought it? Mushy ramping :-) Frosty missed a great chance here IMHO :-)

 

 

ha ha... not ramping, just posting an honest view, but then again ive said that i expect more (i got boxing day snow) wintriness this winter for more people..... not that i want it.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

higher levels in SW England look to be in for dumping on Tuesday, as well as the usual spots of course, my area looks snowless all the way through next 2 weeks

[mushymanrob]

further to my 'dont discount the souths chances just yet' post earlier

 

 

id have thought something like this might produce at least frontal snow for southern areas. ok, its deep fi and wont verify but it does highlight that writing off snow for southern areas is premature.

on the subject of snow.... to me any is looking transitory away from higher ground, it smacks of early 1984 when we got alot of wet snowshowers that left slushy messes for a few hours. it might be more welcome then last years snowless winter, but isnt a decent freeze .

[I remember Atlantic 252]

mushymanrob, agree, I mentioned the very cold SW'ly showing for Tuesday would produce big snow totals to higher parts of S/SW, our areas though look snow free

[Paul]

I know the fashion is to look further ahead in this thread, but for those keen to see some snow - maybe roll the clock back a bit from 10 days time and take a look at this weekend. 

 

Saturday for example is likely to see a rash of wintry showers, accumulating snow for part of northern Britain, and even some of the white stuff further south. 

 

[Jason M]

The GEFS offer quite a few height rises accross the spread

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=384

 

Yep, but having run through each of the runs they are almost all very transient and are simply pauses in the zonal flow. Tbh both the 00 & 06Z suites were pretty disappointing again IMHO. I do understand though that others may disagree.

 

Last night, I actually had a look back at some of the charts from this time last year on meteociel and last years actually didn't look as bad as some we are seeing now. That doesn't mean anything really in terms of how the next six to eight weeks pan out of course but it was an interesting reality check.

 

I think in practice the only change in the outlook is that uncertainty is now higher FI, which is obviously a good thing. As of now though, I can still see absolutely no evidence of anything unusually cold in the outlook.  

Edited January 9, 2015 by Jason M

[mulzy]

  MattHugo81

If you believe the EC32 model then the outlook is grim if you want a bit of 'winter weather' +NAO pattern/mild, wet and windy through to Feb

09/01/2015 12:33

 

Close to Knocker's take on the EC32.

 

The ECM extended London temps suggests nothing very cold:

 

 ensemble-tt6-london (9).gif ...same De Bilt: eps_pluim_tt_06260.png

 

Clearly more seasonal than some winters but the south could struggle before Feb to get anything wintry.

 

 

After the storminess of the next 5 days or so, a return to more normal January conditions is on the cards (mild wet weather interspersed with cooler showery conditions).

 

No sustained cold spell on the way within 2 weeks.

 

The ECM ensembles are a little milder than last night's - let's see what the 12z suite brings...

 

MJO swinging round to phase 6 and then phase 7 but losing amplitude fast - not great signals to be honest.  Maybe that's part of the basis for UKMO underwhelming 16-30 day forecast?

 

[karyo]

 

MJO swinging round to phase 6 and then phase 7 but losing amplitude fast - not great signals to be honest.  Maybe that's part of the basis for UKMO underwhelming 16-30 day forecast?

 

This MJO forecast is so frustrating! A bit better than the recent MJO cycle which failed to enter phase 7 but still bad as it is expected to be very weak by the time it goes to p7. Let's hope the CFS take on the MJO is closer to the money.

Edited January 9, 2015 by karyo

[PolarWarsaw]

mushymanrob, agree, I mentioned the very cold SW'ly showing for Tuesday would produce big snow totals to higher parts of S/SW, our areas though look snow free

 

Just like you were saying leading all the way up too and even on the morning of Boxing day... then look what happened. 

[Iceaxecrampon]

06Z - hope this gets a downgrade TBH

 

T+138 Thursday 15th - was this date an anniversary  - 1991?

 

 

Ian

 

 

 

[winterof79]

Yes Frosty,we are consistantly told we are ALL looking for/expecting  sustained/prolonged cold,not true.

The beeb this lunch saying what the models show short term"turning much colder Tuesday with snow showers"

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015010900/ECU0-120.GIF?09-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015010900/UW96-7.GIF?09-06

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015010906/gfs-1-102.png?6

So, cold with snow showers for Northern Britain over weekend and two days later another colder shot affecting more of the UK....not too bad.

 

I await the Radar with interest over the coming days swiftly followed by the lampost

Edited January 9, 2015 by winterof79

[Man With Beard]

Though storms are rightly the main focus for next week, disruptive snowfall looks sure to happen too. First, Sunday morning - places like Belfast, Edinburgh and Newcastle could be covered:

Into next week and although the GFS snow charts are notorious for phantom snow events, snow is flying about all over the place on them:

 

I think there is some justification in these charts, as I have rarely seen such a potent PM period coming up - usually 850s from these scenarios are around -4C, which is why we associate them with "high ground" only events - but I'm seeing a lot of -6C / -7C 850s in the days ahead - it could make all the difference. An interesting week ahead.

[mulzy]

Again we have the south v north view of the output, if you are in the north and read one of these southern based opinions, you will think there is nothing cold and wintry on the way, however, the reality is northern UK will have accumulating snow at times with just brief milder,wet and windy intervals and the far north could stay on the cold side throughout.

 

The number of MO stations even in the north that register significant accumulations will be small - apart from those on high/very high ground.  Let's see how the next 10 days pan out but wintry nirvana even in the north is a LONG way off.

 

GFS temperature anomaly for the next 7 days shows colder than average for parts of Scotland and NI but for the overwhelming majority (as per the census) temperatures will be normal to above normal.

 

 

The CET (as I predicted many days ago) is currently running in the VERY mild category...

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Edited January 9, 2015 by mulzy

[winterof79]

IDO, I see you are sticking with the Atlantic on the gefs windows. The NH profiles look far more interesting. At such a range, the bigger picture is often more revealing. no clustering of note but a picture which reveals quite a disturbed vortex as we enter the last quarter of jan.

Yes BA i see what you mean.Its easy to get carried away with the Atlantic view.The vortex looks messed up and the core cold either mainly over Siberia or split on many peturbs.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=6&ech=384

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=5&ech=384

[Frosty.]

I think it's very

Yes Frosty,we are consistantly told we are ALL looking for/expecting  sustained/prolonged cold,not true.

The beeb this lunch saying what the models show short term"turning much colder Tuesday with snow showers"

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015010900/ECU0-120.GIF?09-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015010900/UW96-7.GIF?09-06

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015010906/gfs-1-102.png?6

So, cold with snow showers for Northern Britain over weekend and two days later another colder shot affecting more of the UK....not too bad.

Agreed, It's totally misleading for folk in the north to read comments like mild and cool zonal and nothing wintry whereas in truth, the north will be having cold zonal and arctic influence for most of the time. I'm sure there will come a time this winter when the south gets all the snow, the wheel of fortune does turn.

[MP-R]

Though storms are rightly the main focus for next week, disruptive snowfall looks sure to happen too. First, Sunday morning - places like Belfast, Edinburgh and Newcastle could be covered:

 

Into next week and although the GFS snow charts are notorious for phantom snow events, snow is flying about all over the place on them:

I think there is some justification in these charts, as I have rarely seen such a potent PM period coming up - usually 850s from these scenarios are around -4C, which is why we associate them with "high ground" only events - but I'm seeing a lot of -6C / -7C 850s in the days ahead - it could make all the difference. An interesting week ahead.

 

Absolutely. Although maybe marginal for lower ground, there is a lot of scope for at least falling snow in a number of places on showers that will probably be blown a long way inland. The models at least agree on it being cold and often windy next week.

[Paul]

Can we please drop this whole north vs south, imbyism debate. We all get it - people have different perspectives on the weather depending on where they live. Some apply those perspectives to their posts, some don't, does it really have to be discussed on a daily basis at the moment!
 
There are no rules on the forum about location neutrality, as there aren't about people just looking for one type of weather and finding the rest 'boring'. It's a mixed forum, open to all comers and as long as it's on topic, respectful and friendly then it's fine, so please can we leave it there as it's got zilch to do with the model output.

[IDO]

I expect in the next 10 days a lot of snow showers north of the M62 and maybe some frontal snow down to the Midlands. The south maybe backend snow at higher ASL's from frontal precipitation but most likely rain with the odd flurry.

 

Am waiting for the negative AO in 3-4 weeks time from the current Minor SSW. We will see if the UK is favoured by the mid-lat cold, for a change? I don't suspect we will know where the cold will fall for a couple of weeks. The current AO and NAO fall is helpful for medium term cold.

Edited January 9, 2015 by i'm dreaming of...

[linarite]

06Z - hope this gets a downgrade TBH

 

T+138 Thursday 15th - was this date an anniversary  - 1991?

 

h500slp.png

 

Ian

 

rainfall totals for Cumbria looking pretty grim too

Edited January 9, 2015 by Paul
Fixed quote

[Hotspur62]

I think the models are in pretty good agreement that snow will fall in next 7-10 days and it will be predominantly in the North West of Engand,Wales NW Scotland and probably more likely to settle in areas 150m ASL.I would be amazed to see snow in the SE in this timescale even though the GFSp shows snow for 17th Jan(this will no doubt disappear in next couple of runs).As well as SE and EA, i think unlikely NE England and E Scotland will see snow.There you go that's pretty much the UK covered and that's how I see it. I feel the last 24hrs have not been so optimistic for colder spell in last few days of Jan/early Feb and latest 30day Met office round up backs up this view. So far, i think the MO have been pretty good on picking up any signals and have been on the money so far this winter.

[Frosty.]

There is strong support from the GEFS 06z control run for a nationwide cold snap later next week, as per met office update mentioning wintry showers and looking further ahead, reloading cold shots from the north west seems a good bet at this point.

Edited January 9, 2015 by Frosty.

[terrier]

Regarding the current output we have the gfs showing a 935mb low for next week. But it does seem as though the ECM isn't intrested at the moment. So I would say possibly the gfs is once again over doing the low pressure system. Now looking at next week we have plenty of -6 to -7 uppers in a cold pm flow which I would suggest will bring some heavy snowfall say North of Birmingham. And regarding the latest ec32 dayer Matt Hugo has stated not much confidence in it after week 2. So all to play for I would say.